The Kumbaya Phase Is Now Over. Back to Our Regularly Scheduled Chaos.

The euphoria over the collapse of the Assad regime lasted, oh, a good two weeks. Now the meet-the-new-boss-different-than-the-old-boss-but-still-really-bad reality is rearing its ugly head, and the war of all-against-all is returning with some combatants basically reversing roles.

Specifically, the old Ins–the Assadists/Syrian Arab Army–are the new Outs, and the old Outs–the jihadists including most notably the HTS–are the new Ins. The new Outs have fled to ethnic enclaves to resist the new Ins. The roles are reversed, and the locations changed, but the fundamental nature of the conflict is eerily similar.

?? Intense clashes rage into their second day in Tartus, Syria, between Syrian Arab Army resistance cells and forces loyal to the new government.

Footage captured by a local woman from her home offers a close-up view of the chaos, showing militants exchanging fire directly below… pic.twitter.com/jtsokMHdqO

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) December 26, 2024

There’s plenty more like that. What happened in Iraq post-2003 is a good template for what will happen in Syria, namely, regime “dead enders” (in Donald Rumsfeld’s description) will burrow into ethnic enclaves (Alawites in the case of the SAA) and wage a brutal guerrilla/terror campaign against those who ousted them. And those who ousted them will not respond with the same scruples that the Americans did in Iraq.

The Alawites will see this as an existential conflict. It is likely that they will either hold on and wage a protracted war, or will be wiped out. Either way, the exit of Assad will not usher in a new Kumbaya era, but more war to the knife.

Meanwhile, the United States and other western powers are rushing to make nice with the leader of the new Ins, Abu Mohammad al-Julani. Julani has a long al Qaeda pedigree, on the basis of which he achieved the great distinction of being named as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist.” Not just a designated global terrorist mind you, a specially designated one, and one with a $10 million bounty on his head, no less. His parents must have been so proud.

But the US has indicated that he is someone they can work with, and has removed the bounty.

Apparently because he now wears western style suits and says anodyne things about his plans for Syria and because he’s not Assad.

NB: Assad wore really nice suits too.

I’m also reminded of when westerners cooed over Yuri Andropov because he drank scotch and liked jazz.

Suckers.

All of this is wishcasting. Leopards don’t change their spots, and snakes that shed their skins are still snakes.

And even in the unlikely event that the Face (Julani) has really had a road-to-Damascus conversion, what about all those heavily armed people under him? Will they get with the program, or view Julani as a sellout whom they will eliminate and replace with someone more congenial? Congenial to their jihadist agenda that is, not to humanity generally or the Syrian people specifically.

The Russians are still clinging to their bases on the coast. No doubt the bazaar is open and their are negotiations going on between them and the new Ins over the terms to keep them. It is no coincidence, however, that the aforementioned conflict between the SAA remnants and the HTS is taking place in Tartus–where the Russian naval base is.

Russia has every incentive to support these Alawite elements, meaning that the latter will have strong logistical support, possibly air and ground support, and a relatively secure enclave. Probably more secure than HTS’s was in Idlib. Iran also has an incentive to provide support though this will be somewhat more challenging given HTS’s control over Iran’s old overland supply routes. But overall, I seriously doubt the new Ins will be able to eliminate the new Outs, and the war will continue.

And don’t forget that the Assad collapse has helped ISIS, which has been an enemy of the new Ins when they were the Outs. In response, the US is bombing the shit out of ISIS, but that will not destroy them.

And Turkey is is continuing its onslaught against the Kurds in the northeast. Julani has said that an independent Kurdish enclave in Syria is unacceptable, thereby signaling collaboration with Turkey.

Which puts both on a collision course with the US, which has supported and protected the Kurds, primarily because the latter have been the main boots on the ground in the conflict against ISIS. Will that support continue under Mr. Unpredictable’s presidency? Despite his rhetoric, i’m betting it will, for several reasons. First, because of the aforementioned reactivation of ISIS, whom Trump fought viciously. Second, because that’s where the oil (such as it is) is, and who can forget Trump’s “we’re keeping the oil” statement (made to the accompaniment of much harrumphing around the world). Third, because I doubt Trump is will believe the new Ins have shed their terrorist spots. Fourth, because I doubt he wants to empower Erdogan–especially given the latter’s ambition to assume leadership of the anti-Israel movement.

And as for Israel, they are certainly not putting any faith in Julani and the gang, so they are merrily blowing up any and all weapons that the new Ins might think about using against them. Further, they are amassing a security perimeter on Syrian territory–which will inevitably lead to tension and conflict with the new Ins.

All this means that the situation today isn’t all that different than it was a month ago. Some of the players have switched places, but all the players are still playing. There was a sectarian and ethnic war in Syria for the last decade, and every indication is that there will be a sectarian and ethnic war there for the next decade. At least.