Predictions of the new writing year

The end of the year is approaching, and we have a lot of disruption coming in the near year. That’ll be particularly true for where I live, near Washington DC. I’ve been seeing disruptions in the book industry in the last year, though they’ve been coming over the last few years. My futuristic is itching to make predictions!

The non-fiction magazine market is likely on its way out

The internet may be driving this change. Why spend $19.99 for a magazine of recipes if you can find an influencer’s site with recipes? I used to subscribe to one on Paleo. It had gluten free recipes (at the time, I had bought into the gluten free movement) and nutrition and health articles. They decided that it was better for the environment to go online. But once they did, they appeared to cut staff and the quality went down. They last a year after that.

The Writer Magazine, which has been around since the 1800s, finally announced they were switching to online. I felt a sense of foreboding when I read that. The site’s still up but hasn’t been touched in almost two years.

The writing magazines never recovered from the internet. Their audience was beginners, and influencers focused on capturing the beginner market. A monthly magazine couldn’t compete with influencers who posted advice every single day. Writer’s Digest is competing with online video courses.

What this means for writers:

The biggest issue is the skills we’re taught as writers. Influencers address complex skills in a 500 word blog post of bulleted lists. Or sell a two hour video on “How to write a novel” (likely teaching their method of outlining). Many influencers proclaim expertise without actually having the knowledge.

I love that indie opened the doors for writers. Publishers moved at a glacial pace to change and was reluctant to risk much of anything for something new. But indie has caused writers to skip some important steps, leading to my next prediction.

The book market is going to compress

I’ve been seeing the changes for this over the last few years. Having a gatekeeper forced people to learn new skills to improve as a writer. It was a joy for me as a reader to find a series where the author kept getting better and better.

I’m not seeing that with indie books. As a reader, it frustrates me. I can’t even trust Book Bub recommendations as much any more.

Jennifer Brinn reported picking up a greyhound mystery (she has two greyhounds and a Corgi) https://jennifer-brinn.com/about-the-author/. The first chapter started with the character dreaming, then waking up and wandering around the bedroom, describing it. Then the character took the greyhound for a walk and described the neighborhood. That would have never gotten past a gatekeeper, but the author indie published it. This kind of thing makes readers not trust writers.

The indie movement has focused nearly entirely on production goals and marketing. I went to my first 20Books conference, and most of the sessions were on writing more or how to game the algorithms. That later shifted to more general marketing, but still worked on production goals. When craft is discussed, it’s usually about selling tools (see my next point).

The result is writers with a hundred or more books that are…well, superficial. I like urban fantasy, but some of the changes are disturbing. I read an urban fantasy that was a romance with a god. There was a meet-cute, but no conflict or suspense to make the romance satisfying. They just met, fell in love, and wandered to the end of the story. No world for the fantasy side. I’m expecting this genre to suddenly stop selling because this is so prevalent.

The authors are learning to write lots of words, but not tell good stories.

What this means for writers:

Don’t put all your eggs in one genre. People tend to do this when they’re successful. If readers suddenly lose interest in a genre–I think this will happen with urban fantasy–then you’re scrambling to find something else, fast. Not a good place to be in.

Work on your writing skills. The areas to focus on:

Suspense. Try the Internet Archive for older books on writing mystery. While this might not be your genre, there is lots of information you’ll be able to use. Suspense has been missing from a lot of the books I’ve been reading.Setting. In most of the books I’m reading, setting is an afterthought. Make deliberate choices about the setting and use it to build your characters. Character emotions. This has also been lacking in many of the books. You need setting to create the emotions. AI and technology is making us stupider

Technology has been coming more and more into writing. Then AI hit. Last time I went to 20Books, there were vendors selling AI tools and apps. Of course, we also have ProWritingAId. When I run a check, I’m always checking ignore because the machine does not know what I am trying to say. If it makes a suggestion that I see as valid, I make my own change, which may not be what the tool suggested.

Yet, I wouldn’t find it hard to believe that writers were simply clicking yes to everything the tool recommends without actually participating. I’m always in a battle with the false audits. The tool tells me I shouldn’t use big and should choose gigantic or enormous instead. These words are NOT interchangeable as the tool suggests. Each has different meaning. Sigh.

In fact, the AI has become intrusive–and that’s just in the grammar checking. The tools suggest it would be so much better if you changed your sentence to this. And it’s a shockingly bland choice. The tools are making us give up our agency.

How many people don’t know how to eat properly because they’ve relied on an app to tell them how to eat?

How many people could navigate if their GPS failed?

How many writers don’t know how to create a story because they’ve allowed AI to plot it for them?

What this means for writers:

The tools become a distraction that consumes time you could spend writing (especially true if you have a day job and write in the evenings). Own your agency and defend it like you’re in a castle with a moat and drawbridge. Big business wants 100% of data.

A lot of disruption is coming.

If you’re feeling overwhelmed by all the disruption, you’re not alone. I’m #4 Adaptability, and Adaptability loves change. Even my Adaptability thinks there’s too much change, and much too fast. Pull back where you can, and remember that you control your own pace, not everything else.

What are your predictions?