Bird flu update: CA and BC

California has reported possible bird flu infection with no known source in a child in Alameda county I say ‘possible’ because the levels reported in the first test were very low, and subsequent tests showed none. Samples have been sent to the CDC for confirmatory testing.

I wasn’t planning on posting about this unless/until the confirmation, but then I read more about that teen in British Columbia I talked about the other day—and that news is worth talking about.

Nature has a useful article on it, “Why a teenager’s bird-flu infection is ringing alarm bells for scientists.” But it boils down to:

There are 3 key three key differences between the teen’s virus and the H5N1 viruses infecting poultry and cattle:Two possible mutations that could enhance the virus’s ability to infect human cellsOne that might allow it to replicate more easily in human cells (not just cells of usual animal host)The patient began with an eye infection, which then turned into ARDSThis might mean the virus mutated within the host

And what all that means is, as I’ve said before, these viruses evolve fast. Nonetheless, as I’ve also said, we’re still at the pay attention but don’t panic stage.

Let me emphasise: I’m following all this because it’s interesting to me. Yes, of course it could turn into a pandemic and kill zillions of people—frankly, the next pandemic is just a matter of when, not if—but no one has a clue about that. And if it did, it might take another year or two of stops and starts and viral evolutionary dead ends because it has to figure out how to not just replicate better inside humans, not just infect human cells more easily, but also—the key—the ability to spread from human to human. And even so, we know masks and other PPE work, and air filtration, and basic hygiene. And there are effective vaccines, and antivirals.

So let me repeat: interesting, but not panic-worthy.