Polymarket nailed the 2024 election call—Then came the FBI

Just hours after its prediction shook the election world, Polymarket’s CEO found himself at the center of a federal investigation.

As polls closed Tuesday evening, live cable networks watched the vote tallies, but they were still too close to call. Meanwhile, Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, pegged Donald Trump’s chances of victory at 58%. By 11:43 p.m. ET—nearly six hours before the Associated Press called the election—Polymarket’s odds for Trump surged to 95%.