When Greenbean is Wrong, He is Wrong Bigly!

I could not have been more wrong about the election results. In fact, if someone would have taken what I wrote and bet on the exact opposite happening in every instance, well, then, that person would have made a lot of money.

There are all kinds of things I am thinking right now, but let’s start with the data points.

First, 18 million votes. That is how many fewer votes there were this cycle as opposed to four years ago. Trump got three million less than last time, and Harris got fifteen million less than Biden for years ago. That is very peculiar. There are really only three possible explanations. One, Harris didn’t have a full primary season to build support, and that cost her. That is a big possibility. A second explanation is that four years ago many states used mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. For the most part that went away this cycle. Did 18 million people just decide that since they would actually have to go vote they wouldn’t? Maybe. A third explanation is that there was a large group of democrats who refused to support Harris, and a smaller but sizable group of republicans who refused to support Trump.

I have heard some put forth conspiracy theories of tampering, especially by Russia. As with four years ago when it was the Republicans crying foul, I refuse to entertain anything that would suggest wholesale or outcome changing cheating. Our elections are safe, fair, and I trust the people who run them. The results we got are how the votes went. President Elect Trump won fair and square.

Second, these split ticket voters in the five key states are baffling. Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada all went for Trump, but all four also elected (at the time of writing this they are ahead by what looks to me secure margins) Democratic senators. That means voters split their tickets. Pennsylvania almost did, with Casey only losing by 35,000 votes. How is this possible? Who does that — who votes for Trump at the top but then a senator who has the exact opposite policies of Donald Trump? That would be like voting for Ted Cruz here in Texas and then voting for Kamala Harris for President. It is baffling. More on this thought below in my final analysis.

Third, Donald Trump won the popular vote and is the first Republican to do so since George W. Bush in 2004. This unexpected outcome will probably end up with the GOP controlling The House as well as The Senate. That means Trump will be able to ram through all he wants with only token opposition — so we can expect very quickly to see legislation and executive orders to 1) begin mass deportations of your neighbors and coworkers 2) abandon the brave Ukrainians 3)expand energy drilling even though we don’t need it 4) scale back environmental regulation to pre-Obama days 5) tax cuts for the corporations 6) tariffs on imported goods that will cripple the economy 7) crazy people in the halls of government. Let me elaborate on that crazy people business: General Flynn, a genuine nutcase, will likely be Secretary of Defense, I can see Alex Jones as Press Secretary, Elon Musk, who shouldn’t even have a security clearance, will probably end up as special adviser, and Robert Kennedy will stop funding vaccines for children and remove fluoride from the drinking water.

Further Analysis beyond the data points leads me to wonder primarily about the popular vote — something Trump has never gotten before — and those split ticket voters. One thought is that this country is a center-right country and this is simply the pendulum swinging back. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, though neither one of them are as liberal as most think they are, did embrace the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, particularly the transgendered ideology and that cost them dearly with conservative voters. Explain to me Florida, which almost passed abortion rights codifying Roe at 57% but at the same time overwhelming put Trump, who gave us the overturning of Roe and Rick Scot who is vehemently pro-life back in office? That is a hard round peg to square. The only thing I can think of is people separate abortion from governance. They assumed they could vote their own rights in (they didn’t it failed, it needed 60%) and vote against otherwise liberal ideology. This is not a liberal nation.

Some are saying it is gender or race. I do not doubt at all that some misogyny and racism are in play here, but consider — Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan all sent female senators while voting for Trump, and Arizona has elected a Latino man as their senator. So, yeah, it is baked in — but Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in the popular vote. Barack Obama had huge majorities. Racism is real, and so is misogyny, but it is not a big enough factor to explain these results.

I’m leaning toward another explanation. I think America just likes watching the Donald Trump Show. He is immoral, indecent, greedy, joyless, and criminal and a majority of the American people LOVE HIM FOR IT. They love him precisely because he sleeps with everyone he wants to, says exactly what he wants to, takes exactly what he wants to, and does it all without regret, apology, or shame. He is the avatar of their sinful selves and they live vicariously through his perverseness. That is how a person votes for democratic senator to govern and do serious things, but then also votes for Trump for President because deep down you just like the entertainment value.

For two years he will have almost unchecked power. Then, the midterms and after that he is lame duck, which is miserable for presidents. It is at that time both the GOP and the Dems will begin thinking and strategizing for a new wave of leadership, now that all the old folks will be gone — Trump, Biden, McConnell, Schumer, Pelosi. And that, that could be fun.