The research institutes missed by 13 to 23.5 points in the 2022 first round

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Amid new disparity among research institutes regarding voting intentions in municipal elections across the country, it is worth going back to the 2022 presidential election. In that election, the research institutes were wrong by 13 to 23.5 percentage points in the first round, compared to the presidential election. Poll results.

In the first round, Quaest and MDA had the closest results, while DataFolha and Atlas scored the furthest from the polls. Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro by 37% to 33% of the vote.

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See the table below for the first round of the 2022 presidential race:

The institutes’ measurements were more reliable for the results of opinion polls in the second round. In that time, companies made errors of 0.4 to 6.2 percentage points. MDA and Quest were the most accurate, while Atlas and Ipec had numbers far from the polls. Lula was elected president by 50.9%, compared to 49.1% for Bolsonaro.

See the table below for the second round of the 2022 presidential race:

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