Anger at Ruth Bader Ginsburg

This might be a polarizing post but I’ve felt this way for a while and I don’t see it discussed enough.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg let us all down.

Firstly, I know that in the public discourse, ageism is often overlooked and downplayed as not as ‘bad’ as other forms of discrimination. I want to make it clear that I’m not doubting the capacity for contribution of those advanced in years. I’m merely looking at her decision from an actuarial standpoint, from a risk of death.

In 2013, Ruth Bader Ginsburg turned 80. By then, she had already survived two serious bouts of cancer. In May of that year, she fell in her bathroom and cracked two ribs. But she refused to entertain thoughts of stepping down, insisting that she was lifting her weights again and had good bone density.

Harvard Law Professor, Randall Kennedy, urged her in the pages of New Republic magazine to step down so that Obama could confirm her successor, not because anyone doubted the state of her legal mind, but from pure political calculus.

"It seems to me that a justice should take into account the politics surrounding confirmation and not allow (an) opportunity to fall to a Republican," said Kennedy. (Reuters)

Her rebuttals were rooted in two non-relevant arguments:

She was still capable of doing the job.

She, personally, felt that she might regret any ‘early retirement’

Here are the quotes from her:

“It really has to be, ‘Am I equipped to do the job?' ”

"I wonder if Sandra regrets stepping down when she did?"

(Referring to Justice Sandra Day O'Connor who retired at age 75 to take care of her husband, John, who had Alzheimer's disease). Day O’Connor, a moderate, was appointed by Reagan and resigned during Bush II, and was replaced by Alito Jr, a man who is as close to the second coming as Revivalists are likely to get).

RBG stubbornly clung on, feeling that she was capable, not ready to retire. And IGNORING actuarial tables. Here is the actuarial life table from the Social Service Administration. The key word is ‘feeling’ here. She felt good. But what do the numbers say?

According to these numbers, for each year of the Trump administration, these were her % chances of dying.

Age 84, 7%

Age 85, 7.9%

Age 86, 8.9%

Age 87, 9.9%

Calculating the probability of her dying in that four year period, I get 29.6%.

I had written a draft of this piece last week before BIden’s announcement and, in case you’re curious, here’s the calculation for Biden.

First year: 7.7834%

Second year: 8.5686%

Third year: 9.4809%

Fourth year: 10.5090%

Which means that there was a 31.7% chance that Biden would not have made it through his full second term.

Actuarial Tables

I understand that this is in bad taste, calculating the probability of someone’s death. But it is the fear of bad taste that has cost so many people so much with the current composition of the court. Someone needed to show her that if the Trump beats Clinton, there is nearly a 1/3 chance your seat ends up filled by a Republican.

But RBG did the unthinkable. She gambled with her legacy and with our collective futures. She lost. Now she’s checked out of Atlantic City and we’re left holding the bag.

P.S. Not much discourse on this but there is one Politico piece on it, in case you’re interested - LINK - ‘Extraordinarily Self-Centered’: As a Roe Reversal Looms, RBG Admirers Wrestle with Her Legacy

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