Irish Unity makes economic sense: “We are running out of words to describe what is happening in Gaza.” United Nations: A Better World Is Needed.

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Irish Unity makeseconomic sense

 

Last month a report bythe Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) caught the headlineswith the claim that Irish Unity could costthe South up to €20 billion annually. The analysis was quickly challengedby other economists and last week those with different opinions had theiropportunity to address the Oireachtas Committee on the Implementation of theGood Friday Agreement.

Professor John Doyle of Dublin City University wasjoined by Seamus McGuinness a Research Professor at the Economic andSocial Research Institute (ESRI) and by Dr. Adele Bergin who is also anAssociate Research Professor at the ESRI.

Professor Doyle told the Committee that the IIEAreport “is wildly inaccurate as the report contained significant errorsand is based entirely on unreasonable assumptions. Consequently the figuresreport not just the worst case scenario but they are completely wrong.” Heestimated that the initial cost to the South would be in the region of €2.5bn ayear. That is 2 percent of the current annual general governmentexpenditure.

John Doyle said that the IIEA report assumed thatpublic service salaries in the North would be immediately increased to levelsin the South in the first year. “This is unrealistic and unnecessary…Convergence will happen over time and will involve negotiations with publicsector trade unions. Merging salary levels over 15 years – half the time takenby Germany, would mean a cost of approximately €133m (£96.3m) in year one,rising on average by that amount each year."

Professor Doyle also told the Committeethat the IIEA study excluded any analysis of economic growth followingunity. He said, “It assumes that with the same political system, EUmembership, policy framework, education system and tax regime, that NI wouldnot economically converge with the South. This is a very unlikely outcome. Whywould Belfast perform so much worse than Cork and Kerry with the same EUaccess, policies, education and tax system?”

He also pointed out that the IIEA paper took noaccount of the additional taxes that would be raised from public sectorworkers.

Professor Séamus McGuinness and Dr Adele Burginfrom the ESRI made it clear that cost is not a barrier to Irish Unity. IrishUnity can be an economic opportunity North and South. What is needed is properplanning. The onus to lead that planning is with the government and theOireachtas but should involve experts, civil society and the public as a whole.

The Dublin government should establish across-party Oireachtas committee empowered to produce a Green Paper. Such aGreen Paper would research all of the key issues crucial to a future prosperousunited Ireland. This would provide much needed information about what a futureunited Ireland could look like and how it would work.

“We are running out of words to describe what ishappening in Gaza.” United Nations

Tuesday was a special day. For the first time thePalestinian flag flew over Leinster House in Dublin following the announcementby the government to formally recognise the State of Palestine. Tuesday’s movewas the next step in a process that will see the Palestinian Mission in Dublinupgraded to an Embassy. The representative office of the Irish government inRamallah will be re-designated as an Embassy and its representative there willbecome an Ambassador.

The Israeli government response to the decision bythe Irish state, Norway and Spain was to parade their three ambassadors infront of the Israeli media while forcing them to watch an Israeli film aboutOctober 7. Other Israeli Ministers also strongly rebuked the three governmentsaccusing them of aiding Hamas.

The reality of course is that Israel’s war aim ofdestroying Hamas has failed. It was never achievable. What is needed is a peaceprocess. And ceasefires to facilitate this. 

Why has Israel reacted so vehemently to therecognition decision? Because it knows that the symbolism is hugelysignificant. It will provide more diplomatic and international avenues to thePalestinian people to hold Israel to account for its actions and it reinforcesthe very real sense of international isolation that the Netanyahu government isexperiencing at this time. The decision by the Irish state, Norway andSpain means that 146 United Nations member states out of 193 recognise thestate of Palestine. Seven European Union members have already taken thisstep - Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden and Cyprus. WithSpain and the Irish state joining this list that means that one third of the EUstates now formally recognise Palestinian statehood. Every effort must be made,especially after the EU elections in June to get  EU institutions torecognise Palestine.

As the Netanyahu government comesunder increasing criticism the decision by the International Criminal Court toseek arrest warrants for potential war crimes for Netanyahu and DefenceMinister Yoav Gallant, in addition to three Hamas leaders, has added toIsrael’s isolation. In addition, the United Nations International Court ofJustice last week ordered Israel to “immediately” halt its assault onRafah. Predictably Israel described the ICJ order as ‘false, outrageousand disgusting.’

Since then the Israeli assault onRafah and other parts of the Gaza strip has continued. On Sunday Israel bombeda tent city burning children and women alive. A bleak, desperate picture of thesituation was given in a briefing to the UN Security Council by Edem Wosornu, of the Office of the UN for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).She said: “To be frank, we are running out of words to describe what ishappening in Gaza. We have described it as a catastrophe, a nightmare, as hellon earth. It is all of these, and worse.”

The next short term steps areclear. The UN Secretary General António Guterres has confirmed that ICJdecisions are binding. The Irish government must now use its internationaldiplomatic services to secure support for a resolution at the UN which demandsan end to Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza; the release of all hostages –including the 6,000 held by Israel – and immediate humanitarian access for themountain of aid that Israel has blocked from Gaza. It also needs to demand thatthe EU institutions recognise the Palestinian state.

 

A Better World Is Needed. 

For decades now I have argued thatthe big central international struggle of our time is for people to havedemocratic control over the decisions which affect their lives. The absence ofthis basic right underpins conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine and otherparts of the world.  It poisons relations between Ireland and Britain andwithin Ireland although thankfully we have a process for dealing with that.Painfully slow though it is, it is better than war. And such an approach isclearly required in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine.  Thatis what the United Nations should be advocating. 

 

That means taking a stand for the emancipation ofhumankind from all objectionable political bonds imposed from outside. Selfdetermination is our starting point. That means independence of nations,starting with our own.  

Despite Ireland’s historical neutrality, the Irishgovernment has incrementally moved to supporting the ‘security’ agenda of theworld’s bigger powers. That is why we need to enshrine a policy of positiveneutrality in the Irish Constitution. We should not join or form anyassociation with any military alliance and we should oppose the militarisationof the European Union.

 

The United Nations needs reformed. It needs to bemore democratic, particularly the composition of the Security Council. Properweight must be given to the majority of the world’s people. They want peace.They want an end to war everywhere. They want an end to world hunger. They wanteveryone to have access to food, clean water, and an end to deaths fromtreatable illnesses. They want an end to global warming and a focus on measuresto protect and enhance a clean healthy environment. 

 

So international security needs to shift from apurely militaristic agenda, which attacks democratic rights and civilliberties. A security agenda which is based on repression and the promotion ofconservative right wing economic models favoured by the global elites is not goingto deliver true global security.

 

Abetter world is possible. It is also needed. For all our local distractions weneed never to lose sight of that.