The view from the front for 7/12/22.
Hi friend,
Happy Tuesday! Hope you had a great weekend!
My weekend didn’t go as planned — not in a bad way — but I had said in the last newsletter that I had planned a special edition on the impact of long-range rockets in Ukraine (HIMARS).
I had planned to do this probably on Sunday, but a couple of different spontaneous family events popped up that prevented me from getting to that. (One of those events might have involved a trip to Dollywood on what was supposed to be a spotty-shower day but was really more of a never-ending, rain-soaked day. lol. The other might have involved several hours (many hours?) at a number of Tanger outlets, where I can assure you we did our part to help keep the American economy humming.)
Nonetheless, the special edition I had planned on the impact of long-range rockets in Ukraine remains timely, and I can’t really push it back much longer.
SOOOOO… I’m just going to make it a part of this edition. A sort of double-edition, which seems oh-so-appropriate for my first paywalled edition anyway.
You drop a little cash in the hat, you get double what you were expecting. (At least today.)
I’ll do a regular edition, ending with the motivation, as always, and then after that, go into the impact of the HIMARS in Ukraine.
We’ll start today with Japan.
Following the assassination of Shinzo Abe (the former Japanese prime minister), the current government intends to change Japan’s constitution. This was a key desire of Abe’s.
For a summary of the situation, see the excellent video below. It provides a quick overview of the country’s pacifist constitution (now 75 years old), the history of the country’s alliance with the United States, and the threats Japan faces.
Council on Foreign Relations @CFR_orgJapan's constitution has remained unchanged since 1947. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he will initiate efforts to reform the pacifist constitution, a longtime goal of assassinated former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. July 11th 2022
18 Retweets44 LikesIn Ukraine, there were three things I wanted to share.
First, the United States approved more aid to Ukraine. (You can see the full image of everything included below that tweet.)
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III @SecDefOur Ukraine 🇺🇦 security assistance efforts continue. Yesterday evening, we announced another $400m in aid, including four more HIMARS systems and ammunition for those systems. 
July 9th 2022
992 Retweets5,618 Likes
This additional aid is clearly wonderful news for Ukraine.
The second thing I wanted to share was this wonderful video, which shows Ukrainian troops retaking Snake Island and already starting to set-up defensive equipment.
t.me/SoldiersofUkra… ","username":"RALee85","name":"Rob Lee","date":"Fri Jul 08 18:31:46 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/upload/...
Rob Lee @RALee85Video of Ukrainian SSO on Snake Island. t.me/SoldiersofUkra… July 8th 2022
584 Retweets4,653 LikesFinally, Ukraine is claiming it now has 1 million folks in uniform (including police and national guard units. Furthermore, Ukraine is saying it plans to retake at least all of the southern area that was seized. (I’ll share a map of that below.) Here’s the news, however.
thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrain…",... Times and The Sunday Times","date":"Sun Jul 10 17:25:49 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":368,"like_count":918,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk... has one million ready for fightback to recapture south","description":"Ukraine is massing a million-strong fighting force equipped with western weapons to recover its southern territory from Russia, the nation’s defence minister h","domain":"thetimes.co.uk"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}">
The Times and The Sunday Times @thetimes🔺 EXCLUSIVE: Ukraine is massing a million-strong fighting force equipped with western weapons to recover its southern territory from Russia, the nation’s defence minister has revealed to The Times thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrain…
Ukraine has one million ready for fightback to recapture southUkraine is massing a million-strong fighting force equipped with western weapons to recover its southern territory from Russia, the nation’s defence minister hthetimes.co.ukJuly 10th 2022
368 Retweets918 LikesFrom the story:
Ukraine is massing a million-strong fighting force equipped with western weapons to recover its southern territory from Russia, the nation’s defence minister has revealed to The Times.
In his first interview with a British newspaper since the invasion began, Oleksii Reznikov said President Zelensky had ordered Ukraine’s military to retake occupied coastal areas which are vital to the country’s economy.
And here’s a map of the land that Russia has seized to date:
Ukraine War Map @War_MapperA map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 UTC 12/07/22.There have been no notable changes to control since the last update. 
July 12th 2022
124 Retweets534 LikesIn the image above, you can see the red that Ukraine certainly wants to take. (In the purple at the bottom is the peninsula of Crimea. Russia formally seized that in 2014. While there are some various comments out there about the future, I think ultimately, Ukraine wants to retake Crimea, as well.
Furthermore, I think the Ukrainian people want to take it back. In my opinion, they will see the peninsula, which is connected to mainland Russia by a bridge, as a foothold that Russia could use again to invade Ukraine in the future.
