The view from the front: military matters and motivation for 5/17/22.
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Happy Tuesday, everyone! Hope you had a great weekend and that your week is off to a rocking start!
We’ll begin this edition with some good news: it appears cracks are emerging in the Russian certainty of victory on their homefront.
This incredible clip came out Monday night, which is worth watching if you have a moment.
Francis Scarr @francis_scarrIn an extremely rare moment of candour on Russian state TV today, defence columnist Mikhail Khodaryonok gave a damning assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine and his country's international isolation. It's fairly long but worth your time so I've added subtitles. May 16th 2022
9,281 Retweets29,837 LikesWhat’s so stunning about it is that video runs behind him of modern NATO weapons the entire time that he’s speaking. So, to me at least, it seems planned. Not an accident at all. (And typically, this channel runs nothing but nonsense of certain Russian victory.)
Tom Nichols, an expert on Russia, discussed in a thread that perhaps this is the beginning of Putin acknowledging that he can’t win, so he has to soften things up for the public so it’s not too big of a shock. But Nichols also stated that this could be the beginning of someone taking a chance? That is, someone (or many someones) making their move in a coup.
I’ve written for weeks about the brave defenders of the steel plant in Mariupol called Azovstal.
Late Monday, news broke that a prisoner exchange with Russia will happen in an effort to save the defenders.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video statement, “Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive. This is our principle. I think that every reasonable person will understand these words.”
Let’s hope the prisoner exchange happens. I have been worried the garrison would have to surrender and then possibly deal with torture or execution by the Russians.
Adding to what I wrote last week, Russia is most certainly losing. And here’s an excellent summary of the current situation in Ukraine.
Dr Mike Martin, a defense analyst at the War College, said the war has hit a tipping point. Martin argues that:
Ukrainian morale is high; its supplies are increasing (from the West); and they are on the offensive.
Russian morale is low, and in some places collapsing; its supplies are becoming constrained (it has probably run out of precision munitions for instance); and sanctions will increasingly constrain its ability to make new weapons.
Martin thinks that Ukraine will begin not only counter-attacking, but also making bold moves that will create panic among the Russian defenders, such as cutting “the coastal link up the Russians have created between Donbas and Crimea.”
Adding to the evidence that Russia is getting absolutely pummeled, was this news, which seems like a big deal.
Arrow Intel @IntelArrowKharkiv front update:Pro-Russian war correspondents report that Ukrainian army managed to cross Siverskiy Donets river East of Stary Saltiv and capture several villages.This is significant since it creates a huge threat to Russian supply lines running from Belgorod to Izyum. 
May 16th 2022
27 Retweets102 LikesIn the end, victory will have to be made on the ground. As this excellent video shows, here is how the Russians negotiate, simplified.
@McFaul This is exactly how they operate. @kajakallas the Estonian PM explaining with astonishing clarity how Russians use appeasement to achieve their agenda. ","username":"overdryven","name":"Øve","date":"Sun May 15 19:10:05 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/upload/...
Øve @overdryven@McFaul This is exactly how they operate. @kajakallas the Estonian PM explaining with astonishing clarity how Russians use appeasement to achieve their agenda. May 15th 2022
3,586 Retweets9,585 LikesBefore we leave the topic of Ukraine, let’s share a lame joke I came up with, after seeing the below video.
#Russia #Ukraine ","username":"Blue_Sauron","name":"BlueSauron👁️","date":"Mon May 16 16:03:48 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/upload/...
BlueSauron👁️ @Blue_SauronTwo Russian BMPs were destroyed after entering a minefield.#Russia #Ukraine May 16th 2022
1,244 Retweets8,736 LikesAnd here’s my joke:
"Sir, we've entered a minefield. First vehicle destroyed. What are your orders?"
Commanding officer: "There are no mines. Intelligence says there are no mines. That's just propaganda."
"Roger that, sir."
Vehicle 3, ten seconds later: "Sir, vehicle two also hit a mine..."
Moving to a different subject, I’m assuming most have heard this news by now (and I’ve stated in previous newsletters that this would likely happen), but now it’s going down.
Sweden wants to join NATO, in addition to Finland.
The Washington Post @washingtonpostSweden joins Finland in seeking NATO membership 
Sweden joins Finland in seeking NATO membershipPutin said Finland and Sweden’s entry into NATO did not represent an imminent danger to Russia, but he warned the same would not be true if NATO staged a military buildup in the two countries.wapo.stMay 17th 2022
94 Retweets567 Likes(And just when you think it can’t get any crazier, even long-time neutral Switzerland is thinking about joining NATO.)
Moving away from Europe, America’s own wars are expanding, with the breaking news below.
@EricSchmittNYT ","username":"charlie_savage","name":"Charlie Savage","date":"Mon May 16 14:03:04 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":2318,"like_count":4668,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/16/us... Approves Plan to Redeploy Several Hundred Ground Forces Into Somalia","description":"The president also signed off on targeting about a dozen Shabab leaders in the war-torn country, from which Donald J. Trump largely withdrew in his final weeks in office.","domain":"nytimes.com"},"video_url":null}">
Charlie Savage @charlie_savageEXCLUSIVE: Biden secretly signed an order in early May authorizing the military to redeploy 100s of Special Forces into Somalia & to target about a dozen Al Shabab leaders. Reverses Trump's last-minute decision to withdraw from Somalia. w/ @EricSchmittNYT 
Biden Approves Plan to Redeploy Several Hundred Ground Forces Into SomaliaThe president also signed off on targeting about a dozen Shabab leaders in the war-torn country, from which Donald J. Trump largely withdrew in his final weeks in office.nytimes.comMay 16th 2022
2,318 Retweets4,668 LikesYou can read more about Al-Shabaab at this link.
Moving to tech news, there were a couple of items I wanted to share that I thought you might be interested in.
First, this.
And secondly, this story, which is almost too impossible to believe.
Lee Hudson @LeeHudson_NEWS: For the first time, a Stryker equipped with a 50kw laser shot down multiple 60mm mortars. 
May 13th 2022
19 Retweets49 LikesYou can read the actual story here: Raytheon Intelligence & Space and Kord team-up to defeat multiple mortars and large drones with Stryker-mounted high-energy laser.
All right, enough news for this edition. Let’s end with some cool historical photos. And then some motivation and wisdom.
Inspirational Quotes @TheQuoteBoook_Love doesn't make the world go round, Love is what makes the ride worthwhile.May 16th 2022
98 Retweets415 Likes
Motivational Quotes @spreadcheer1If you can't makeup your mind despite constant internal debate, allow your heart to lead you. It knows the way. It knows what you want yet you resist. If something can't be resolved by logic let your intuition hold your hand & guide you. It'll never take you to wrong destination.May 13th 2022
29 Retweets123 Likes
That’s it for this edition.
As a reminder, please be kind and endeavor to love your fellow Americans. We need to pull this country together, and that starts with all of us.
The view from the front: military matters and motivation is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
The view from the front: military matters and motivation is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
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Semper Fidelis,
Stan R. Mitchell
P.S. Don’t forget to check out my books. I’ve written a CIA/Marine sniper series, a detective series, a private investigator series, an action-packed Western, a leadership/biography book, and two realistic war novels: one about World War IIand one about Afghanistan.
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