The Stan R. Mitchell report for 5/3/22.
Happy Tuesday, everyone!
Not a whole lot has happened in Ukraine since our last newsletter. The Russians are bogged down, and even being pushed back in some areas.
Some civilians from Mariupol at the Azovstal steel plant have been rescued. That is great news, and the defenders that remain are still somehow holding out.
Here’s the latest news I saw about the situation just prior to publication.
Hromadske Int. @HromadskeAzovstal was shelled with naval artillery all night of May 2, says the Commander of the 12th Brigade of the National Guard Denys Schlega.There are about 200 civilians left at the steel work, including 20 children, as well as more than 500 wounded soldiersMay 2nd 2022
159 Retweets289 LikesI know I’m probably holding out to the impossible, but the below map gives me some hope.
Ukrainian forces appear to be about one hundred miles from Mariupol and the defenders at the steel plant. (Look roughly in the middle of the map.)
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrienHere is a map with a distance marker, you can see just how long a line they have to cover. Seems that the area around Kharkiv is not as well defended. 
April 30th 2022
65 Retweets516 LikesPart of me wishes the Ukrainians would do an all-out push to rescue those trapped there, but I have to remind myself that every town and city currently occupied faces horrendous threats. Russian troops are sending people to filtration camps, as well as sending them all the way to Russia itself.
Families are being separated, men are being executed, and women and girls are being raped.
These realities, as horrific as they are to consider, are just the facts.
But the Ukrainians are taking the fight to the Russians now.
Speaking more broadly than merely the area of Mariupol, it’s remarkable how things have changed in Ukraine since the early days of the invasion.
Take a look at these two maps.
Ukraine War Map @War_MapperA comparison of the height of Russian control (18 March) and the most recent control. 
May 1st 2022
290 Retweets1,007 LikesAnd it’s just beginning. The Russians have no idea what they are in for as with each passing day, the Ukrainians grow stronger. Take this news, for example.
Gordon Lubold @gluboldmore than 200 Ukrainian artillerymen have been trained on the M777 artillery system the US is providing, a senior defense official tells reporters, as the fight unfolds in the DonbasMay 2nd 2022
28 Retweets109 LikesThe devastation this artillery will bring is nicely laid out in the article below.
Task & Purpose @TaskandPurpose'The king of battle' — How US artillery in the hands of Ukrainians may reshape the war with Russia 
‘The king of battle’ — How US artillery in the hands of Ukrainians may reshape the war with RussiaWe’ve always called it ‘the king of battle’”bit.lyMay 2nd 2022
12 Retweets36 LikesEven in this age of modern – and often over-engineered – weapons systems, artillery has proven its worth time and again on the battlefield. During the 2017 fight to drive the Islamic State group from its former capital of Raqqa, Syria, a Marine artillery detachment fired so many 155 mm rounds in support of Syrian Democratic Forces that they burned out the barrels of two of their M777 howitzers.
Russia’s issues are stark. Besides fielding conscripts and lacking the motivation that comes naturally from fighting to defend their homeland, additional new details emerge almost daily of how pathetic Russian equipment truly is.
Take for instance what their troops ride in.
Mark Hertling @MarkHertlingThe autoloader is 1 of 100's flaws in Russian design in the production of military equipment.Two additional examples.Here's the rear of the BMP, a RU infantry carrier. Note the cramped compartment.Also note how the door has big bulges. Those are fuel tanks. 11/ 
May 2nd 2022
107 Retweets1,462 LikesLook how cramped this vehicle is. AND, how there are fuel tanks literally in the back door, just waiting to get shot up.
While it’s true Russia could impose a draft and bring in additional troops several months from now, it would take too long to train them for them to have much effect, in my opinion. And the Russian economy is about to get hit again. With an even bigger impact than all the previous hits it’s taken.
Europe is looking seriously now to places like Algeria, Angola, Nigeria, and the Republic of Congo for its energy needs.
Daniel Yergin, an energy historian and vice chairman of S&P Global, summed it up perfectly in an article to the Washington Post: “Two months ago, the Europeans could not possibly have imagined shutting the door on Russian energy, and now it’s only a question at this point of how long will it take. And it’s happening faster than would have been imagined possible only two months ago. Putin in eight weeks of war has destroyed what he spent 22 years building: integrating Russia into the world economy.”
You can read the entire article below, though admittedly there will be short-term pain for Europe with this situation, as the article lays out.
The Washington Post @washingtonpostThe next 18 months are going to be a harrowing time for Europe, as the impacts of high prices ripple around the world and governments struggle to power their factories, heat their homes and keep their electricity plants running. 
Russian threats redraw the global energy mapwapo.stMay 1st 2022
57 Retweets150 LikesIt seems that someone within Russia’s boundaries will surely try to take out Putin soon. The insanity of this invasion proves more and more mad and fatal with every passing day.
While we’re on the topic of Ukraine, I wanted to take a much closer look at how drones and missiles are completely re-shaping the battlefield.
And they’re often field-expedient/modified and not even used as designed.
Take for example this item, where a Russian helicopter is shot down by a Ukrainian anti-tank missile. (Probably more punch than needed, but still deadly effective.)
@Kochevenko \n","username":"Conflicts","name":"Conflict News","date":"Tue Apr 05 10:29:39 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://cdn.substack.com/image/upload...
Conflict News @ConflictsVIDEO: Ukrainian forces shoot down Russian helicopter with Stugna-P anti-tank missile. - @Kochevenko April 5th 2022
2,709 Retweets16,098 LikesAnd then there’s this.
Kyle Glen @KyleJGlenUkrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade destroy a Russian tank by dropping an explosive from a drone. May 1st 2022
136 Retweets799 LikesI wanted to show how the Ukrainians are doing these attacks, by sharing this excellent thread by @ChrisO_wiki.
@ian_matveev, on whose thread this is based). /1 ","username":"ChrisO_wiki","name":"ChrisO","date":"Sun May 01 00:33:18 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://cdn.substack.com/image/upload...
ChrisO @ChrisO_wikiBy now, many will have seen the video of a Ukrainian drone dropping a small bomb through the sunscreen (!) of a car driven by Russian soldiers. Here's a short thread on how it was done (with thanks to @ian_matveev, on whose thread this is based). /1 May 1st 2022
2,326 Retweets8,795 Likes(He’s referring to this tweet.)
ChrisO @ChrisO_wikiFor the attack, a modified VOG-17 grenade was used. A fin and a front part, created on a 3D printer, are added. The VOG-17 is a Soviet-era 30x120 mm fragmentation grenade with a claimed effective radius of 7m, covering an area of about 150 m². /2 
May 1st 2022
148 Retweets1,480 LikesChrisO @ChrisO_wikiIt weighs about 350g (12.3oz) A hobbyist drone like a DJI Phantom 3 is easily capable of carrying one of these. As two grenades were used in this attack, it suggests that a bigger drone was used, two drones were used or the same drone was used to attack twice in succession. /3 
May 1st 2022
88 Retweets1,134 LikesChrisO @ChrisO_wikiThe modifications to the grenade are simple, but as the video shows, they enable good aerodynamic performance and high accuracy. /4May 1st 2022
366 Retweets2,696 LikesChrisO @ChrisO_wikiThe VOG-17 grenade itself contains only 36g (1.2oz) of explosive and can't seriously damage equipment. But there is a lot of such ammunition in Ukraine. It's usually fired from an AG-17 automatic grenade launcher, a Soviet equivalent of the US Mk 19. /5 May 1st 2022
75 Retweets1,184 LikesChrisO @ChrisO_wikiLow-cost hobbyist drones armed with small modified grenades provide a cheap and effective weapon against individual soldiers. Factions in Syria and Iraq used them to some extent, but they've really come into their own in Ukraine. /6May 1st 2022
94 Retweets1,335 LikesChrisO @ChrisO_wikiBut how do you destroy an armoured vehicle with an off-the-shelf drone? Ukraine appears to have been using a few different approaches. One of the most effective has been to repurpose the RKG-3, an old Soviet-era type of anti-tank grenade dating to 1950. /7 
May 1st 2022
74 Retweets1,087 LikesChrisO @ChrisO_wikiIn 2020, Ukraine's PJSC Mayak Plant demonstrated a drone bomb conversion for the RKG-3 - attaching 3D-printed fins to convert it into the RKG-1600. It weighs about 1kg (2 lb), requiring the use of a larger drone. /8 
May 1st 2022
81 Retweets1,119 LikesChrisO @ChrisO_wikiIn 2020, Ukraine's PJSC Mayak Plant demonstrated a drone bomb conversion for the RKG-3 - attaching 3D-printed fins to convert it into the RKG-1600. It weighs about 1kg (2 lb), requiring the use of a larger drone. /8 May 1st 2022
81 Retweets1,119 LikesChrisO @ChrisO_wikiAnother tactic appears to be the use of what are likely to be aerially-dropped mortar rounds - a very simple and cheap option, particularly against weakly armoured vehicles such as these Russian BMP-3s (with only about 10mm of top armour). /10 
May 1st 2022
88 Retweets1,285 LikesChrisO @ChrisO_wikiThe effect of these can be seen in the video below. /11 May 1st 2022
118 Retweets1,591 LikesChrisO @ChrisO_wikiThe cost-effectiveness of these things is extraordinary. An octocopter drone costs maybe $10k, a Phantom 3 costs around $500. A mortar or RKG-1600 probably costs under $100. Each BMP-3 cost the Russians $796k. Add to that the potential cost of a lost crew. /12May 1st 2022
188 Retweets1,932 LikesChrisO @ChrisO_wikiYou can bet that military strategists will be watching this with great interest. Drones are now able to effectively snipe soldiers and equipment with great precision, likely undetected, at any time of the day or night and in most weather conditions. /13May 1st 2022
156 Retweets1,759 LikesChrisO @ChrisO_wikiEven if you're camouflaged, bivouacked or behind the front lines, a drone armed with a small bomb could be overhead at any moment. Drone pilots are the new snipers of the 21st century, and are likely to be just as much feared by their targets. /endMay 1st 2022
330 Retweets2,992 LikesIt’s kind of crazy to think that these drones are the new snipers of the 21st Century, but it’s also hard to disagree.
These drones are completely transforming the battlefield.
Moving along, we’ve talked some about the expansion of NATO. Following up on that, here is an article that explains some of the details involved in that happening, and how it will take some time to occur.
Defense News @defense_newsWidespread, if not universal, support exists within NATO for Finnish membership. Unfortunately for Finland, and perhaps for the alliance, there is likely to be a significant delay. 
Should Finland join NATO? Consider these factors.Widespread, if not universal, support exists within NATO for Finnish membership. Unfortunately for Finland, and perhaps for the alliance, there is likely to be a significant delay.defensenews.comApril 30th 2022
7 Retweets19 LikesEnough news for this edition. Let’s end with some motivation and wisdom.
First, a relevant, on-topic tweet that shows we can ALL do something to help those causes that we care about. Even if you’re a small child.
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent⚡️Six-year-old girl raises Hr 5,000 ($165) for Ukrainian military by playing flute on the street.Solomiia Reut from Dnipro raised half the sum needed to buy one bulletproof vest, and her mother fundraised the other half on social media.Photo: Sicheslavska Prosvita/Facebook 
April 27th 2022
4,260 Retweets26,547 LikesAnd here are some more generic, typical motivational ones.
Karine Jean-Pierre @K_JeanPierreSHARE. May 1st 2022
466 Retweets1,212 Likes#Motivation","username":"IMQuotes_Videos","name":"Inspired Motivation Quotes","date":"Sun May 01 13:00:03 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":91,"like_count":189,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null}">
Inspired Motivation Quotes @IMQuotes_VideosIf you are looking for true success, don’t worry about social status. Don’t waste your precious time and energy trying to impress others. Live below your means. That combined with hard work & persistence is what will take you to the top.#MotivationMay 1st 2022
91 Retweets189 Likes
Stan R. Mitchell @StanRMitchellSaw a great quote on Instagram. "Stop calling it your dream and start calling it your plan."👊💪🤠May 2nd 2022
4 Likes
Mike Jason @mikejason733 rules of thumb:1) ain't nothin' easy2) never take your first 'no' for an answer3) everything is built on a personal relationship Matthew Kobach @mkobach
What’s something a boss told you that has stuck with you your entire career?April 29th 2022
2 Retweets30 Likes
Inspirational Quotes @TheQuoteBoook_Opportunities don't happen, you create them.May 1st 2022
108 Retweets538 Likes
That’s it for this edition.
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Stan R. Mitchell
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