Cook Political Report: ‘Both sides see the possibility of a Red Tsunami in 2022’

Cook Political Report published an analysis piece today titled “How Big Is the House Playing Field?” The piece starts from an acknowledgement that the midterms are shaping up as very bad for Democrats.This week, Democratic and Republican campaign operations acknowledged that the House playing field is expanding. The NRCC added another 10 House districts to its already robust list of 72 Democratic-held targets. And on the Democratic side, the House Majority PAC announced it would be reserving nearly $102 million in advertising in a whopping 51 media markets for the fall campaign.
These moves suggest that both sides see the possibility of a Red Tsunami in 2022.
But the main thrust of the piece is that there re factors that could restrain a Red Tsunami to some slightly less dramatic. Looking the GOP’s advantage in the generic congressional ballot (currently +3.6 at RCP), Cook predicts about a 7 point shift toward the GOP, meaning any district where Biden won by less than 7 would be in danger. The good news for Dems is that there aren’t that many of those:
…there are only 21 districts where Biden’s margin was fewer than seven points. Even if we expand that universe to include districts Biden carried by 8–10 points, that un …

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