If Putin Felt Like a Cornered Rat Before, How About Now?

ISW reports (based on US intelligence, allegedly) that the Russians are in an operational pause, waiting for logistic support and reinforcements. I have to say, an operational pause after 3 days of a planned operation launched from your own borders is pathetic.

Perhaps I should not have been surprised at the logistic difficulties. This article by a retired US Army LTC who now does simulations for Nato implies that Russian logistics are not configured for high tempo offensive operations away from railheads. If anything, it suggests an army configured to fall back on its communications.

Russian tactical proficiency also seems lacking.

Russian units are not fighting as BTGs. They’re not doing combined arms warfare. They’re driving down roads in small detachments, pushing recon and VDV units forward. Tanks without infantry. It’s not going well for them because this isn’t how they organize and fight (more later). https://t.co/5AibDoyUmL

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 27, 2022

Tanks operating without infantry is a recipe for disaster because they are extremely vulnerable to ambush by anti-tank missiles or attack by drones. This is particularly true if they are operating on roads, especially through built up areas: the ATM crews can pick off the lead and tail vehicles, stop the entire column, go to town on the immobilized vehicles, and then scoot for safety.

This is not news. It has been known since tanks were first deployed in WWI.

This is pretty shocking. The otherwise sensible Kofman cautions that the Russians aren’t fighting the Ukrainians the way they would fight Nato:

Folks are taking the right lessons about Ukraine’s military from this, but a number of the wrong ones about the Russian military. This operation looks terrible, and it should, because it’s assumptions were nuts, but this isn’t the Russian mil fighting as it would against NATO.

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 27, 2022

Why wouldn’t the Russians bring their A game here? This suggests that they don’t have an A game.

What is transpiring suggests that in addition to logistic and tactical failings, Russia suffered a major intelligence failure, especially with regards to evaluating the combat capability of the Ukrainians.

In sum, piss poor performance, despite alleged prior planning.

So who will take the fall for all this? There were rumors (since denied) that Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, had been fired. Maybe it’s not true now, but it could well be soon. Ditto with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

A deeply suspicious–and arguably clinically paranoid–man like Putin may suspect that he has been deliberately sabotaged by the military. If you are looking for a mental model of the man now, Stalin is probably the best bet.

This picture of Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov is unbelievable:

Again with the table! This suggests a man who is deeply scared about his immune system. (Look at his pictures. The puffy face is symptomatic of heavy steroid use.)

And check out the happy couple who can barely be made out at the end of the table:

A ruble for your thoughts, gentlemen?

By the way, I’m being cheap there: as of now, a ruble is worth about .9 cents.

So Plan A–decapitation and blitzkrieg–didn’t work. What’s Plan B?

Alas, I fear it is a reversion to Russian form, by pulverizing Kiev and perhaps other cities.

There was a story circulating last night that Putin had ordered Kiev be taken by tomorrow.

Sorry, Vova. You don’t take a defended city in a day. Or a week. It usually takes months. Like the 2 months the Germans needed to take Warsaw in 1944 (and they obviously showed no scruple in their means). Or the 6 weeks it took in Grozny. Or the many weeks the US spent securing Mosul, or Fallujah, or Sadr City.

I could go on.

This is a terrible prospect.

Will Putin have the time to carry this out? To my amazement, the Europeans have shown some testicular fortitude and ramped up sanctions. The SWIFT restrictions on Russian banks, and most notably the restrictions on the Central Bank of Russia, threaten to demolish the Russian financial system, and like tomorrow: the sharp decline in the ruble is a harbinger of that. Moreover, this will hit ordinary Russians. There are already lines at ATMs, and bank runs are likely, as are runs on foodstuffs. This could–finally–galvanize widespread social unrest in Russia. With a fire in the rear and at the front, what will Putin do? How much time does he have?

Most concerning is the fact that Russia’s poor performance on the battlefield is a double edged sword. His conventional forces being revealed to be a paper tiger/Potemkin military, Putin has only a single card to play: nuclear weapons.

And he signaled his willingness to play that card today, by putting Russian nuclear forces on their highest level of readiness.

If Putin felt cornered before he launched this folly, how must he feel now?

Sobering as it is, the world’s fate may be in the hands of those unhappy men at Putin’s table, or their subordinates. Either through insubordination or coup, they can take the world’s fate out of the hands of someone who is either literally mad, or gives a damn good impression of it.