Forecasting the old-age dependency ratio to determine a sustainable pension age

Presentation given to ARLES (Ageing Risks and their Long-term impact on the Economy and Society) I’ll describe how to forecast the old-age dependency ratio for Australia under various pension age proposals, and estimate a pension age scheme that will provide a stable old-age dependency ratio at a specified level. The approach involves a stochastic population forecasting method based on coherent functional data models for mortality, fertility and net migration, which is used to simulate the future age-structure of the population.