The 12/28/21 dispatch.

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Happy Tuesday! Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas!

On the Ukraine/Russia front, not a lot has changed. No one still truly knows what Putin is doing and whether he intends to invade.

Before I cover a couple of things there, take a look at this great graphic below, which shows what the Soviet Union once was; and what it is now.

Peter B. Zwack @PeterZwackExactly 30 years ago tonight the crimson Soviet flag was lowered for the last time & the white, blue & red tricolor of traditional Russia was raised over the Kremlin. Pix & maps tell stories w/ few words: this simple map of the USSR's breakup into 15 nations does very well.

December 26th 2021

88 Retweets281 Likes

Here’s a clip of it zoomed in a bit if the link above doesn’t work.

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If a new sizeable invasion were to occur, here’s like what it’d look like, from a recent Russian live-fire exercise. This exercise includes breaches by engineers through simulated minefields.

tvzvezda.ru/news/202112242… ","username":"RALee85","name":"Rob Lee","date":"Fri Dec 24 20:44:21 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://cdn.substack.com/image/upload...Rob Lee @RALee85Video of the live-fire exercise in Crimea with 1.2k paratroopers. Obviously, a VDV formation with T-72B3 tanks, attached TOS-1A and engineering assets needed to punch through defensive lines and a C-UAS component is relevant to a Ukraine scenario. 370/tvzvezda.ru/news/202112242…

December 24th 2021

29 Retweets95 Likes

One thing to point out from it, as shown below, are the screens above the tanks. These are to help stop missiles and drone attacks.

tvzvezda.ru/news/202112242… ","username":"RALee85","name":"Rob Lee","date":"Fri Dec 24 20:51:04 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHZpdM...Rob Lee @RALee85More screenshots of T-72B3 tanks with counter ATGM/loitering munition roof screens. 371/tvzvezda.ru/news/202112242…

December 24th 2021

6 Retweets31 Likes

The debate about what created this most recent increase in tensions continues to rage online. The view I hold to is as described below: Russia (and its aggression and violence the past decade, especially) is causing countries that once allied themselves to it (or were even a part of it) to want protection from NATO. (Either through joining it or coming in under its umbrella.)

@CastilloJasen It’s not about NATO wanting something. The point is, most Ukrainians want their country to be a member of NATO.","username":"ikelly731","name":"Ian Kelly","date":"Sat Dec 25 20:00:07 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":3,"like_count":58,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null}">Ian Kelly @ikelly731@CastilloJasen It’s not about NATO wanting something. The point is, most Ukrainians want their country to be a member of NATO.

December 25th 2021

3 Retweets58 LikesNigel Gould-Davies @Nigelgd1Recall, too, that this is a consequence, not cause, of Russian actions. In 2013, Ukrainian support for NATO membership stood at 14%.

Ian Kelly @ikelly731

@CastilloJasen It’s not about NATO wanting something. The point is, most Ukrainians want their country to be a member of NATO.

December 26th 2021

55 Retweets269 Likes

While the debate continues online, our military and civilian intelligence agencies are working to try to map out any clues that might foretell if Putin will invade.

Mike Eckel @Mike_Eckel👇U.S. Air Force surveillance over Ukraine today

Manu Gómez @GDarkconrad

#Ukraine-USAF E-8C Joint STARS REDEYE6-USAF RC-135V Rivet Joint HOMER19 https://t.co/HAcBT2Qs44

December 27th 2021

25 Retweets70 Likes

Here’s the tweet of the flights not showing up above:

#Ukraine\n-USAF E-8C Joint STARS REDEYE6\n-USAF RC-135V Rivet Joint HOMER19 ","username":"GDarkconrad","name":"Manu Gómez","date":"Mon Dec 27 11:46:11 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHnKOh...Manu Gómez @GDarkconrad#Ukraine-USAF E-8C Joint STARS REDEYE6-USAF RC-135V Rivet Joint HOMER19

December 27th 2021

34 Retweets100 Likes

One good sign is that Turkey, who’s been a bit hard to predict in recent years, is even trying to urge Russia to not take rash actions. See below. (Recall that Turkey had begun pivoting toward Russia during the Trump administration, even making large — and controversial — arms purchases.)

@AFP \nu.afp.com/wqeq ","username":"dmitryzaksAFP","name":"Dmitry Zaks","date":"Mon Dec 27 11:30:50 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHnGx2...Dmitry Zaks @dmitryzaksAFPTurkey urges Russia to drop 'one-sided' demands and adopt a more constructive approach in its standoff with Western powers and NATO over Ukraine. From @AFP u.afp.com/wqeq

December 27th 2021

39 Retweets113 Likes

One downside already happening for Putin is that the recent Russian tension is bolstering the arming up of countries in the region.

Lucas Tomlinson @LucasFoxNewsBolstering NATO’s eastern flank: State Department OKs potential arms sale of 230 Javelin anti-tank missiles to Lithuania

December 21st 2021

85 Retweets242 Likes

Putin will continue trying to blame everyone but himself, but I’m glad the West is standing up to him. He is a bully, who is causing the vast majority of his own problems.

It’s a shame he won’t look in the mirror and see what’s actually happening.

Moving along, on the military news front, there were several items of note. I’ll share them below without comment for the sake of brevity.

Anthony Capaccio @ACapaccioCongrats to the Navy for finally taking delivery of the 11th and last Ford carrier weapons elevator..here's a reprise of our story that disclosed the initial elevator fiasco:U.S. Navy’s Costliest Carrier Was Delivered Without Elevators to Lift BombsHuntington Ingalls ship lacked 11 elevators needed for warfare.bloombergquint.com

December 24th 2021

2 LikesAlex Luck @AlexLuck9"Under the plan, the US marine corps would set up temporary bases on the Nansei island chain stretching from Kyushu – one of the four main islands of Japan – to Taiwan at the initial stage of a Taiwan emergency..." US and Japan draw up joint military plan in case of Taiwan emergency – reportUS would set up bases from a Japanese island to Taiwan and deploy troops, with Japan providing logistical support, Kyodo reportstheguardian.com

December 24th 2021

43 Retweets77 Likes@StephenLosey ","username":"reporterjoe","name":"Joe Gould","date":"Thu Dec 23 13:27:06 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":3,"like_count":3,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/... the B-21 Raider: 2022 to bring new bomber’s eagerly awaited rollout","description":"Next year will also bring what are expected to be tough choices and retirements as part of the upcoming budget proposal for FY23.","domain":"defensenews.com"},"video_url":null}">Joe Gould @reporterjoeMeeting the B-21 Raider: 2022 to bring new bomber’s eagerly awaited rollout via @StephenLosey Meeting the B-21 Raider: 2022 to bring new bomber’s eagerly awaited rolloutNext year will also bring what are expected to be tough choices and retirements as part of the upcoming budget proposal for FY23.defensenews.com

December 23rd 2021

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Finally, let’s share some motivation and wisdom!

#amwriting #writerslife ","username":"AdviceToWriters","name":"Jon Winokur","date":"Mon Dec 27 12:00:02 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHgRFV...Jon Winokur @AdviceToWritersWhatever you’re meant to do, do it now. The conditions are always impossible.DORIS LESSING#amwriting #writerslife

December 27th 2021

84 Retweets310 LikesGreat Minds Quotes @GreatestQuotesLike what you do. If you don't like it, do something else. - Paul Harvey

December 27th 2021

122 Retweets418 LikesCSM Nicholas M. Curry @realPatriot_7Enjoy even your small successes…

December 24th 2021

1 Retweet16 LikesThe Devil is a Part-Timer @AllegedKurdNothing, just my 60 year old dad doing 13 pull ups with a 30lb plate carrier setup on.Animal.

December 24th 2021

45 Likes

That’s it for this edition. And as a reminder, please be kind and endeavor to love and support your fellow Americans. The vast majority of Americans are decent, loving, great people.

Please don’t name-call the other side. They are mothers and fathers and folks not much different than you.

As always, please share this post if you enjoyed it, as well as comment below.

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Semper Fidelis,

Stan R. Mitchell

P.S. Don’t forget to check out my books. I write fast-paced military and mystery thrillers. You can find all ten books here: amazon.com.