The 12/21/21 dispatch.

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Happy Tuesday! Hope everyone is having a great week and excited about Christmas here in just four days. (For the males out there, a quick reminder: four days isn’t long. And the longer you wait, the more you’re going to spend… Wait till the day before? And you’re going to end up buying diamonds or serious amounts of gold. Trust me on this. I speak from experience!)

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Moving along to news, which unfortunately isn’t good and will quickly end whatever good cheer you were feeling, things remain tense in Ukraine.

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Increasingly, this is looking like it might be some kind of conflict in Ukraine.

I’ll share some insights I’ve come across of late. Here’s some context of what is on Ukraine’s border currently, and in the past, in regards to Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs). This is from a Russian expert.

Michael Kofman @KofmanMichaelFor context, August 2014 op was likely 4-6 BTGs. Winter 2015 offensive, maybe 8-10 committed. No air strikes, no long range PGM strikes, minimal employment of high power artillery or long range MLRS. Current deployment ~50 BTGs available backed by joint force.

December 17th 2021

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PGMs are precision-guided munitions (PGM, smart weapon, smart munition, smart bomb) and MLRS is a multiple launch rocket system, something that can fire almost 20 miles.

Michael Kofman @KofmanMichaelNow a fair share of that comprises permanent formations established or based near Ukraine post-2014. But the influx of forces = 80-100% increase on top of those garrisoned units. Meaning about half the BTG available number represents the buildup.

December 17th 2021

9 Retweets48 LikesMichael Kofman @KofmanMichaelIn 2014-2015 Russia had far more forces available and deployed than actually committed. So X battalions does not mean that X would be used. But, as the thread suggests, the force being positioned in 2021 is quite sizable and trending upwards.

December 17th 2021

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And there’s more than mere tweets from analysts who have studied Russia.

Take a look at this piece from David Ignatius at The Washington Post:

Richard Engel @RichardEngelUS weighing an option effectively used against it’s military quite a bit. | The Biden administration weighs backing Ukraine insurgents if Russia invades - The Washington Post Opinion | The Biden administration weighs backing Ukraine insurgents if Russia invadesA problem that bedeviled the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan could be Putin’s problem if he orders troops to enter Ukraine.washingtonpost.com

December 20th 2021

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From the story:

The planning, described Sunday by a knowledgeable official, includes ways to provide weapons and other support to the Ukrainian military to resist invading Russian forces — and similar logistical support to insurgent groups if Russia topples the Ukrainian government and a guerrilla war begins.

The weapons the United States might provide include shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles. The CIA’s delivery of such weapons, known at the time as “Stingers,” had a devastating effect on Soviet forces during their 10-year war in Afghanistan, from 1979 to 1989.

The administration task force, which includes the CIA and other key agencies, has been studying how insurgencies were organized against the Soviets in Afghanistan and Russian-backed forces in Syria — and also against the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s an ironic example of turning the tables, weighing whether and how to inflict harm similar to what U.S. forces have suffered in recent years.

The task force includes a legal team that is studying how any assistance to a Ukrainian insurgency could be provided without violating U.S. or international laws.

So the bottom line is, if you had any Christmas plans to visit Ukraine, you might want to re-consider. And I’ll continue to keep a close eye on this little, I mean BIG, hotspot.

Moving along to another pressure cooker, whose heat is getting hotter…

I’m not sure of the intent of this story:

Liz Sly @LizSlyDespite all its threats to attack Iran, Israel doesn’t have the ability to take out Iran’s nuclear program and so probably won’t. The US has the ability but seems disinclined. Israeli Defense Officials Cast Doubt on Threat to Attack IranIsrael has threatened military action to destroy Iran’s nuclear program if need be. But defense officials say Israel does not have the ability, at least not anytime soon.nytimes.com

December 20th 2021

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But I’ll throw out two quick theories.

Theory one is Israel is trying to pressure America into conducting the attack, so their analysts are leaking out that they CAN’T pull off the attack.

Theory two is Israel DOES plan on doing the attack, as some previous articles I’ve linked to has alluded to, but Israel wants Iran to think that it CAN’T.

And I’ll add one more. Let’s say theory three is just a “let’s try to freak out the public and get these dumb Americans talking about this issue again instead of Covid or Spiderman.

As you can tell, these things can get complicated and deep in a hurry.

But the Iran-nuclear situation isn’t going away.

I’m still leaning toward Washington telling Israel to simply deal with Iran procuring a nuclear weapon. (After all, Israel has probably 300 or so of them.)

The Department of Defense is still trying to make sure it doesn’t have Congress come after it any time soon.

@AP. The new guidelines come nearly a year after some current and former service members took part in the U.S. Capitol riot. ","username":"AP","name":"The Associated Press","date":"Mon Dec 20 17:54:55 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":931,"like_count":2833,"expanded_url":{"url":"http://apne.ws/9jfP4xw","im... issues rules aimed at stopping rise of extremism | AP News","description":"WASHINGTON (AP) — Warning that extremism in the ranks is increasing, Pentagon officials issued detailed new rules Monday prohibiting service members from actively engaging in extremist activities. The new guidelines come nearly a year after some current and former service members participated in the…","domain":"apne.ws"},"video_url":null}">The Associated Press @APBREAKING: Pentagon to issue rules aimed at curbing rise in extremism among troops, officials tell @AP. The new guidelines come nearly a year after some current and former service members took part in the U.S. Capitol riot. Pentagon issues rules aimed at stopping rise of extremism | AP NewsWASHINGTON (AP) — Warning that extremism in the ranks is increasing, Pentagon officials issued detailed new rules Monday prohibiting service members from actively engaging in extremist activities. The new guidelines come nearly a year after some current and former service members participated in the…apne.ws

December 20th 2021

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From the article:

Warning that extremism in the ranks is increasing, Pentagon officials issued detailed new rules Monday prohibiting service members from actively engaging in extremist activities. The new guidelines come nearly a year after some current and former service members participated in the riot at the U.S. Capitol, triggering a broad department review.

According to the Pentagon, fewer than 100 military members are known to have been involved in substantiated cases of extremist activity in the past year. But they warn that the number may grow given recent spikes in domestic violent extremism, particularly among veterans.

Officials said the new policy doesn’t largely change what is prohibited but is more of an effort to make sure troops are clear on what they can and can’t do, while still protecting their First Amendment right to free speech. And for the first time, it is far more specific about social media.

Full story here: Pentagon issues rules aimed at stopping rise of extremism.

Continuing to move along, here’s a more general story about foreign policy, America, and the world.

The Economist had a great story recently: Why medium-sized autocracies are projecting more hard power abroad from.

The Economist stated that “as America retreats from its role as globo-cop, it has opened space for medium-sized powers to become more assertive.”

As evidence, the article went on to say:

Turkey has occupied a chunk of Syria, sent troops to Libya, helped Azerbaijan vanquish Armenia and dispatched its navy in support of dubious claims to Mediterranean waters. Iran backs militias that prop up Syria’s despot, have a chokehold on Lebanon and were accused this month of trying to murder Iraq’s prime minister with an explosives-laden drone. Pakistan helped a group of misogynistic jihadists take over Afghanistan. Belarus hijacked a plane and has been giving migrants bolt-cutters and ordering them to cut through Poland’s border fence. Cuba trains Venezuelan spooks. Saudi Arabia bombs Yemen. Medium-sized menaces are on the march. They are making the world more confusing and more dangerous. 

While The Economist says none of this is good for global stability, it predicts “these newly assertive countries will find that the costs of adventurism outweigh the benefits. Wielding hard power is expensive, and hard to do effectively.”

Turkey has gained swagger and territory, but alienated nearly all its allies. Saudi Arabia is stuck in a quagmire in Yemen. The uae’s missions failed not only in Yemen but in Libya, too. Pakistani colonels gloated over President Joe Biden’s hasty retreat from Afghanistan. The Taliban are friendly with Pakistan and hostile to India. But Kabul’s new rulers have no idea how to govern. Afghanistan is in economic meltdown and their ruthless, exclusive approach could provoke another war on Pakistan’s doorstep.

And in the end, The Economist states some of these mis-steps might bring down these leaders.

Moving along (quickly now, because I know you’re about to bounce), here’s a short blip that barely made the news (if it did at all):

Jennifer Griffin @JenGriffinFNCA sr US defense official tells me the US shot down a rocket that was fired at the US Embassy in Baghdad. A C-RAM (counter rocket and mortar anti missile) intercepted one of two rockets fired, neither landed in the US Embassy compound in the Green Zone.

December 19th 2021

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Just remember that our troops continue to face danger around the world. And most of the time, you’ll never even hear of it.

Before ending this post, let’s end with some motivation and wisdom.

a.image2.image-link.image2-405-603 { display: inline; padding-bottom: 67.16417910447761%; padding-bottom: min(67.16417910447761%, 405px); width: 100%; height: 0; } a.image2.image-link.image2-405-603 img { max-width: 603px; max-height: 405px; } CSM Nicholas M. Curry @realPatriot_7

December 18th 2021

1 Retweet13 Likes#Motivation ","username":"IMQuotes_Videos","name":"Inspired Motivation Quotes","date":"Sun Dec 19 16:00:09 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FG-3ux...Inspired Motivation Quotes @IMQuotes_VideosMake efforts to develop the self-control to avoid negative temptations, and the courage to take advantage of good opportunities.#Motivation

December 19th 2021

69 Retweets201 Likes

That’s it for this edition. And as a reminder, please be kind and endeavor to love and support your fellow Americans. The vast majority of Americans are decent, loving, great people.

Please don’t name-call the other side. They are mothers and fathers and folks not much different than you.

As always, please share this post if you enjoyed it, as well as comment below.

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Semper Fidelis,

Stan R. Mitchell

P.S. Don’t forget to check out my books. I write fast-paced military and mystery thrillers. You can find all ten books here: amazon.com.