The 12/3/21 dispatch.

The 11/30/21 dispatch. The 12/7/21 dispatch.

The 12/3/21 dispatch.

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Happy Friday! Hope everyone has had a great week!

We’ll begin this newsletter with the situation in Ukraine again. Not much has changed, which in itself is quite worrying given the ramped-up tensions already in the area. (If you want a look at what a second Russian invasion of Ukraine would look like, check out Tuesday’s newsletter. I covered that in depth.)

But The Economist pointed out that some military analysts predict an invasion might begin in January. (See article below.)

The Economist @TheEconomistThe 100,000 Russian troops massed near the border are more than mere theatre; Russia is setting up field hospitals and calling up its reserves

The Ukrainian army has got better at fighting Russian-backed separatistsBut now war of a different kind loomsecon.st

December 1st 2021

75 Retweets105 Likes

The list of reasons for this are the following, according to the article:

The flat, muddy terrain of south-eastern Ukraine will be frozen solid by then, allowing Russian tanks to roll in. It is in the middle of the deployment cycle for the conscripts who make up much of Russia’s ground forces. And Russia may find itself with a pretext for invasion, since the new year has in the past brought front-line flare-ups in Ukraine’s war against Russian-backed separatists. Besides, the 100,000 Russian troops massed near the border are more than mere theatre; Russia is setting up field hospitals and calling up its reserves.

The article ends by saying that Putin is “probably bluffing.”

But the thing about Putin is you can never be sure.

And as stated below, Russia will often blame others for doing what it planned to do all along.

Alexander Marquardt @MarquardtABlinken warned of this on Tuesday, saying that part of Russia's "playbook is to attempt to create or manufacture a so-called provocation as justification for something Russia has been planning to do all along."

Olga Tokariuk @olgatokariuk

'Blinken is likely to warn NATO allies Wednesday that Putin may be preparing a ploy in which he falsely claims that Russian-backed forces have been attacked by Ukraine, as a pretext for taking action'https://t.co/TdZFvynj0X

December 1st 2021

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One thing Russia ISN’T happy about are stories such, as this:

Department of Defense 🇺🇸 @DeptofDefenseNEWS: Aegis Ashore in Poland on Target for 2022

Aegis Ashore in Poland on Target for 2022The Aegis Ashore capability planned for Poland is moving ahead and is scheduled to be operational by the end of next year, the program executive officer for Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense said.defense.gov

November 19th 2021

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Russia is increasingly frustrated with NATO’s westward expansion, but it’s Russia’s aggression that continues to fuel that push. As a reminder, American forces were leaving Europe in droves until Putin decided to get violent again, invading parts of Ukraine ten years ago, sending jets to Syria, etc.

In news that isn’t too big, but could end up becoming big, there was this today:

Blinken says Iran does not seem serious about returning to compliance with nuclear deal.

As a reminder, not only has Israel said it would never allow Iran to have nuclear weapons, but even U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in the same article that “Washington will pursue other options if diplomacy fails.”

And finally, in news that shouldn’t surprise anyone, China continues to try to push around its neighbors.

Derek J. Grossman @DerekJGrossmanIndonesian lawmaker responds to Chinese threats in SCS: “Our reply was very firm, that we are not going to stop the drilling because it is our sovereign right.”

EXCLUSIVE China protested Indonesian drilling, military exercisesChina told Indonesia to stop drilling for oil and natural gas in maritime territory that both countries regard as their own during a months-long standoff in the South China Sea earlier this year, four people familiar with the matter told Reuters.reuters.com

December 1st 2021

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It’s actions such as these, and the one below, that continues to galvanize the world against China. (It didn’t have to be this way.)

Stan R. Mitchell, author @StanRMitchellGreen sky at night over Taiwan’s islands heralds a different kind of squid game

Green sky at night over Taiwan’s islands heralds a different kind of squid gameChinese fishing boats mounted with green LED lights surround the Matsu chain, unnerving local residents.washingtonpost.com

October 16th 2021

1 Like

Moving along, in tech news, here were a couple of cool stories that I came across:

trib.al/d2YA6B3 ","username":"defense_news","name":"Defense News","date":"Wed Oct 20 17:26:45 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FCKMLD... Twitter avatar for @defense_news

Defense News @defense_newsIsrael and South Korea to boost collaboration on loitering munitions trib.al/d2YA6B3

October 20th 2021

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@armyfutures is hard at work looking for the #USArmy's next generation of combat vehicles!\n\nFrom robotic battle #tanks to other combat vehicles, their Next Generation Combat Vehicle Cross-Functional Team is exploring ways to advance future #Soldier lethality.\n\n#ArmyTech ","username":"USArmy","name":"U.S. Army","date":"Sun Oct 24 22:06:01 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FCfyc6... Twitter avatar for @USArmy

U.S. Army @USArmy.@armyfutures is hard at work looking for the #USArmy's next generation of combat vehicles!From robotic battle #tanks to other combat vehicles, their Next Generation Combat Vehicle Cross-Functional Team is exploring ways to advance future #Soldier lethality.#ArmyTech

October 24th 2021

230 Retweets904 Likes

Finally, before we end with some motivation, I came across the following below. As a huge fan of A-10 Warthogs, this just completely blew my mind.

Did you know that A-10s are great fighters against other aircraft if the confrontation is up close and personal? (Yeah, I didn’t either.)

#AvGeek #Aviation #USAF #Warthog ","username":"RealAirPower1","name":"Air Power🎄","date":"Sat Nov 27 16:42:39 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FFNufi... Twitter avatar for @RealAirPower1