Small unit firefights in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan: Results of a DARPA review

By Zail
Coffman

Best Defense
ASSUALT (Agency for the Study of Small Unit Actions, Literature and Training) 

A reader "from
one of our formerly rebellious southern states" wondered
about comparisons between the last few major conflicts. In fact, a few
years ago Jack Stuster and I conducted a
study for DARPA to examine the widely held belief that surviving a few
firefights enhances soldiers' and Marines' likelihood of surviving later,
prolonged exposure to combat. The objectives of the
study were to test the hypothesis concerning the relationship between
experience and long-term survival in combat,  and to identify factors with training
implications that contribute to casualties and survival during firefights.

We reviewed more than 400 accounts of
military firefights, finding 208 that provided sufficient detail for analysis.
We formed a database of firefight experience encoded for 88 variables
(operational, environmental, outcome, etc.); becoming quite familiar with the
genre we came to call "Lieutenant Lit." We also conducted personal interviews
and correspondence with a sample of highly-experienced com­bat veterans. The
database includes engagements from 1966 to 2009 and includes U.S. Army, Marine
Corps, Naval Special Warfare, several actions involving coalition partners and
accounts from the Soviet-Mujahedeen war.

Statistical analysis of the data found
substantial evidence to support the study's primary hypothesis. We determined that,
on average, mission outcome improves following units' third firefight and
survival rate improves following units' fourth engagement. In addition, we
identified survival factors, casualty factors, and lessons learned from the
database of firefight accounts, interviews, and correspondence with subject
matter experts. We found five categories of skills, knowledge, and behaviors
and listed them in order of their contribution to survival during firefights:
Weapons Proficiency, Situational Awareness, Tactics and Drills, Cover and
Concealment, and Leadership/Communications. Nothing new (humans have been at
this for a few thousand years), but our methods allowed us to statistically
determine the criticality of the first four engagements, identify specific
examples of the skills and behaviors that contribute to casualties and
survival; and quantify the relative significance of the factors and place
them in order of priority.

Unfortunately, the research proponents moved on to
other assignments and the project was terminated after its initial phase. An
article describing the study results was approved for public release and has
been accepted by the Proceedings of the Naval Institute but publication
has been hanging fire for some months now. Distribution of the project report
is limited to US Government personnel.

Zail
Coffman, a Vietnam veteran, is a technical writer in Gaviota, California,
which, like Dustin Hoffman and Paul Giamatti, you probably have driven through
without even knowing it. I know I have.