A Hitler Hypothetical

On December 11, 1941 Adolf Hitler declared war on the United States.  Almost everyone who has analyzed this decision has been puzzled.  Why go out of your way to antagonize the United States when it’s consumed with fury against Japan?

The leading reply: At this point, Hitler saw that war was inevitable, so he might as well take the moral high ground for propaganda reasons.

I’m unconvinced.  In the absence of Hitler’s war declaration, there must have been at least a 5% chance that the U.S. would ...