I’m preparing for the apocalypse

Phew … we’re home It’s all about the book …

I’m preparing for the apocalypse

I feel as though I’m preparing for the apocalypse. I’m currently fashioning an extra 100W solar panel for Doris, which I keep in her garage and put out when we need more than the 200W on the roof. It’s been a job I’ve been meaning to do for a while … I have now found the time.

it’s all downbeat, so have a photo of a panda

But why the apocalypse? Well, come on, keep up. (And I appreciate I’m about to lose my three conservative readers.) I am worried. Really worried. I was worried at the beginning of the Brexit process, which was subsequently heightened by the pandemic and has now been launched into orbit by the current political rhetoric.

There were no downsides to Brexit, apparently. It was all sunlit uplands. £350 million a week for the NHS. Our existing trade deal with the EU would be replaced with better ones … and a special one with the US. The Germans needed us more than we needed them. On the other hand, Project Fear spoke of labour shortages, leading to product shortages and the failure to pick crops and man/woman our abattoirs. Leaving the single market would lead to a reduced GDP. No one would want our services anymore … and they would turn to Amsterdam and Frankfurt instead. There was even mention of gas shortages and an increase in utility costs.

And the pandemic hit. We had the opportunity to extend our place in the EU for two years, but ignored the offer. We would do better on our own.

Now we find that Project Fear is pretty much project reality. Sure the gas price hike has nothing to do with Brexit and many of the EU nations are short of lorry drivers. But this government got rid of our gas storage facilities ten years ago, in the same way it ignored the pandemic risk assessment and we made up (slowly) our approach to covid as we went along. But the EU doesn’t have a problem with stocking its shelves because the drivers move about the place at will. And its energy prices are offset by better storage facilities and the ability to buy collectively. Johnson may claim we have the best GDP growth, but that is because our GDP dropped more than any other 1st world nation in the pandemic. Apparently our growth now is well below Germany, for example.

But that’s not why I’m preparing for the apocalypse. I’m getting ready not because a hard Brexit has made our ability to function as a country more difficult. I’m getting ready because, in the last two weeks, the government has told us ‘this was the plan all along’. We were always going to be heading for a high-skill, high-wage society. That was, apparently, the point of Brexit. It’s up to industry to pay people more, to attract more HGV drivers, to upskill the more mandronic jobs, like cleaning and caring, and turn them into skilled butchers and lorry drivers. Better wages was the planned outcome. And it’s going to take a bit of time, but we can do it. Apparently.

Good. Except … that wasn’t the point of Brexit, was it? Brexit was about not being controlled by Europe – regaining our sovereignty (whatever that means) – by stopping freedom of movement, and spending that £350 million a week on the NHS. At no point was Brexit about a shortage of workers which would mean industry would have to pay more to people already in the country (supply and demand). It was never about wage growth. The new mantra of ‘high-skill, high-pay’ is, quite clearly, a political expedience to where we find ourselves. It is a consequence of Brexit. It was never its aim.

But wage growth is good, surely? Well, yes. Possibly. Under certain circumstances. I’m no economist but I know this much. Wage growth is good provided it comes from increased productivity. Industry cannot just afford to pay people more. They have to find the income to do that. And the easiest way to find that money is to increase the prices of their goods and services. Which means inflation, which is already set to top 4% by the end of the year, a figure unheard of unless you are my age. And higher wages are only a good thing if inflation keeps below that growth. Which seems unlikely. With this comes the perennial problem for government workers, like the NHS and teachers. They don’t actually sell anything. Unless you privatise the NHS (I shivered as I wrote that statement; Boots, apparently is set to offer GP-like services for £15-a-time), you can’t increase the cost of care … or education. Does that mean that we’re going to increase wages for everyone, but government employees – who will still have to pay higher prices in the shops. And, wait for it, more expensive mortgages. That’s the way the Bank of England will try to curb inflation. They will put up interest rates.

And, if we’re now upskilling everyone, who’s going to care for your gran? There’s already an issue in some cities where ambulance and bin-lorry drivers are being enticed into driving for industry where their wages are now much better (to attract the shortfall in drivers). Who’s going to replace them? Who’s going to fill the care slot. Or clean the hospitals? And it’s not as easy as temporary visas. There have been 127 applicants for the 5,000 temporary HGV drivers from the EU, to fill our shelves between now and Christmas. 127. Why? Because, among others, the febrile atmosphere created in this country against EU migrants by the rhetoric of people like Priti Patel. Why would anyone bother?

I haven’t even mentioned the NI protocol.

So … I’m preparing for the apocalypse. At the same time I’ve started book 8 in the Sam Green series, I have a new phone (Motorola G9 Play= £99 from Argos), we are close to sorting out the house, and have finished Midnight Mass (grown up vampire stuff – absolutely first class) and Squid Game (Korean thriller – what on earth was that about?). Both are on Netflix.