AI, Cyber Attacks & the Future of War | Where are We Headed?

AI, Cyber Attacks & the Future of War | Where are We Headed?
Vicar Sayeedi
June 15, 2021

Over the past few years, technologically advanced weapons systems, including lethal autonomous weapons systems enabled by AI, have begun to take their place within the arsenals of most advanced military forces on the planet. As its capabilities and sophistication continue to advance at a dizzying pace, AI will soon be at the center of virtually every military command and control center, as well, leaving many observers to openly question whether humans will have any role to play in conflicts of the future – conflicts that exceed human capacity to understand what is happening in real time and therefore how best to respond.

AI’s emergence as a weapon of choice has taken hold in a steady, gradual manner. Over the past five years, cyber warfare initiated by both state and non-state actors has become increasingly common and as a result we can expect to experience $20 billion in related losses by the end of 2021. On an annualized basis, this is an increase of nearly 500% since 2016.

In the past, in fact, since the beginning of human civilization some twelve thousand years ago, war was a near constant reality of life and peace was nothing more than a brief interlude between wars. It was a somber time marked by the burial of each side’s war dead and was a time to make desperate attempts to treat the wounded, all the while rearming and preparing more soldiers for the next phase of never ending conflict. Our present reality, characterized by the previously described steady, steep escalation in the level of cyber warfare, is beginning to bear an uncanny resemblance to our historical reality of unending war as sophisticated state and non-state actors probe and attack vital infrastructure including commercial and consumer financial systems, critical health and hospital systems, electrical power grids, national security and early warning radar systems, sewage and water treatment plants and virtually every commercial and government entity of merit or significance. Critical commercial, institutional and infrastructure vulnerabilities are constantly being probed, with ongoing attacks characterizing the new norm. These attacks will soon be endemic and the resulting economic costs will be both burdensome and enormous. The sense of national security that has come to represent an expected norm of life in Western Developed Economies will wane and will instead begin to resemble that of other parts of the world that have lived under countless, varied threats for generations and centuries.

Today, AI is transforming virtually every aspect of our lives and so it’s not at all surprising that this 4th Industrial Revolution technology will also transform how we engage in conflict. For the first time in human history, the invention of the steam engine that demarcated the dawn of the 1st Industrial Revolution enabled humankind to overcome its limitation on human strength. Now, once again for the first time in human history, we are on the cusp of comprehensively overcoming the limitations of human general intelligence and the combination of this ability with other advanced technologies will change our world in an unprecedented manner. Military engagements of the future will be far more efficient and intelligent than ever before – and they will be potentially far more lethal, as well.

The first major advancement in warfare in human history was the transition from hand-to-hand combat using daggers, knives, maces, swords and other hand-held weapons, This period was followed by the introduction of gun powder and eventually by nuclear weapons. But the greatest invention of humankind in the last twelve thousand years, our pièce de résistance, is unquestionably Artificial Intelligence and it will transform future human conflict and life completely. Nuclear weapons will retain their ability as weapons of mass destruction and as such will remain an existential threat, but the governance surrounding their deployment will likely be entrusted to an AI Agent.

Taken together, these developments will certainly make our world a far more dangerous place. In fact, most observers concede that a new arms race in AI-enabled weapons has already begun and this is now an inescapable reality of our world. Threats of apocalyptic outcomes are no longer science fiction scenarios but are increasingly plausible outcomes. Military Command and Control systems under the authority of AI can vigilantly monitor vast quantities of data and are thus best placed to initiate war without human intervention or confirmation. This loss of human agency could easily result in a conflict spiraling off into an apocalyptic direction from which we may be unable to return.

Since the complexity surrounding the decision of whether to initiate conflict and in what manner is rapidly reaching a point involving analysis beyond the limits of human comprehension and processing speed, we will need to decide whether such agency should ever be granted to these Command and Control AI Agents or whether such systems can even be disabled, if and when the need arises. For example, American early warning radar systems distributed across America as well as in the UK and Greenland are networked and therefore vulnerable to cyber hacking. The vulnerability of this critical component in our security apparatus leaves America and its allies who depend upon the capabilities of these early warning systems open and vulnerable to cyber attack, probably followed by an attack by sophisticated weapons systems. This reality makes these early warning systems a rich target for an antagonist.

For example, discovering malware inserted into the code at Filingdale’s, an early warning radar system monitoring Russian airspace from England’s northeast coast could leave national security agencies in the Five Eyes Security Alliance wondering - has the malware been placed there for espionage purposes or is it a part of some forthcoming offensive operation? There may be insufficient time to properly attribute the discovered malware to the correct antagonist, particularly when decisions on how to best respond may need to be made quickly. Is the antagonist China, North Korea or Russia? Or is it someone else? In such a tense situation, there may be no way to ascertain the answer quickly enough and there may be insufficient expertise and time to decode the malware to determine its true function. This scenario has all the hallmarks of a disaster and could easily lead to a first use of nuclear weapons.

In late 2020, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought over a disputed region in the Caucuses called Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azeris had a large number, perhaps as many as 200, of what are known as loitering munitions while the Armenians had only one home grown version of this weapon. These weapons known as Harpy were built by IAI, an Israeli high tech weapons manufacturer. These autonomous munitions can fly to a particular point and then hover for hours until their target, most likely a mobile missile launcher, becomes visible. The Harpy then flies a kamikaze mission directly into the mobile missile launch vehicle. The technology gave the Azeris a decisive victory over the Armenians.

Another worrisome variant of this technology are tiny but lethal swarming drones that are also entering the arsenals of national militaries and some of these technologies may be difficult to limit to military use. They will likely find their way into the hands of so many nefarious actors around the world. As a result of these developments and their worrisome potential, the US National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence is recommending massive new investments in AI-enabled lethal autonomous weapons systems to ensure that America and its allies are on the leading edge of such emerging AI-enabled battlefield technologies.

A UN Commission on AI-enabled weapons systems wants all Member States to agree that these weapons must remain under human control but the consensus nature of the forum means any individual State can obstruct progress. This is precisely what is happening – discussion and debate is unable to move towards negotiations with Russia taking a particularly obstructionist position. Meanwhile, most major military powers have been unwilling to support a treaty banning such weapons but have been more amenable towards discussions around their ethical use.

Going forward, AI-enabled weapons will be an application of 4th Industrial Revolution technology requiring a great deal of attention since it is likely to be amongst the most destructive applications of Artificial Intelligence we are likely to see.










Vicar Sayeedi is a Computer Scientist and Engineer, a Lecturer and a Consultant. Vicar is also the author of several books. His most recent book is about Artificial Intelligence and is titled, The Génome Affair.

Vicar is most interested in the big questions facing humankind. He is particularly focused on studying at the confluence of the five great disciplines of Human History, Political Science and Thought, International Affairs, Science and Technology. This intersection offers a deep understanding and pedagogically important lessons of how advances in human endeavor have influenced and impacted civilization.

Vicar has been writing books, essays and poetry for many years. For the past 30 years, Vicar has worked in the Technology and Pharmaceutical industries. He is currently a Consultant in the Life Sciences Industry and lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and their three grown children [if they decide to visit during the holidays!]

You can find Vicar’s recent book on AI, The Génome Affair on Amazon at this link:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07YQ7M9Q7

The most recent episodes of Vicar’s ai & u! Podcast are on YouTube at the following links:

Episode 1 - https://youtu.be/yNYr28jtY_k
What is Artificial Intelligence? What is Human Intelligence?

Episode 2 - https://youtu.be/kAEgDNh1Nwc
How Did We Get Here? Machine Learning, Neural Networks & the AI Lexicon, Exciting AI Agents

Episode 3 - https://youtu.be/3PYCyv1pCgM
Deep Mind - How Powerful is Narrow AI? State Surveillance and Surveillance Capitalism

Episode 4 - https://youtu.be/WvobCMIM_H4
Impact on Societies That Possess Artificial Intelligence Versus Those that Do Not!

Episode 5 - https://youtu.be/4JVpvm4g79g
Surveillance Capitalism, Surveillance State, 4th Industrial Revolution, Bifurcation of Sapiens

Episode 6 - https://youtu.be/e1q2GgcWQok
AI, Blockchain & Quantum Computing - Implications for Global and National Governance

Episode 7 - https://youtu.be/4bDSUvrOdd4
Popular Perceptions of Intelligence, the Seat of Human Intelligence and Implications for AI

Episode 8 - https://youtu.be/3GjHqQZL7Pk
AI - Why Should I care? Plus Exciting Updates from Elon Musk and Neuralink!

Episode 9 - https://youtu.be/enpecqDecC8
AI - Excellence, Innovation & Genius

Episode 10 - https://youtu.be/UsriESlTjdA
Implications for AI as China and the West Decouple

Episode 11 - https://youtu.be/0CpaMb-yw3g
Artificial Intelligence: Ethics, Law & Society

Episode 12 - https://youtu.be/PLzodrLWMq0
AI & Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems

Episode 13 - https://youtu.be/Lm_nrNyJRbA
AI & the Future of Work in Industry 4.0 – the 4th Industrial Revolution

Episode 14 - https://youtu.be/_3E1Mhr_Dt8
Artificial Intelligence and its Implications for Authoritarianism and Democracy

Episode 15 - https://youtu.be/IpMUqHOEd7w
Artificial Intelligence, Consciousness & the Future of Homo Sapiens

Episode 16 - https://youtu.be/mIf7_VMzGKo
AI and its Implications for America's Political Environment

Episode 17 - https://youtu.be/gsMRPnovZGI
Special Episode: Reading From The Génome Affair

Episode 18 - https://youtu.be/UxNxtWDCREM
Artificial Intelligence - Digital Tyranny, Datocracy and the Imitation Game

Episode 19 - https://youtu.be/Db8U0QQWWuY
Does Artificial Intelligence Really Replicate Human Intelligence?

Episode 20 - https://youtu.be/Np18AEq-6DM
AI & Rising Geopolitical Tensions Between China & The West

Episode 21 - https://youtu.be/fOMSvNiixA0
AI & In-vitro Fertilization [IVF]

Episode 22 - https://youtu.be/EQPpRhIV6Kw
AI & Human Intelligence: A Complex Relationship

Episode 23 - https://youtu.be/EAbQ7stY7JQ
AI Upends the World of Structural Biology

Episode 24 - https://youtu.be/Bsb1F8uoBpA
AI & COVID-19: An Extraordinary Contribution

Episode 25 - https://youtu.be/PqL5PCRc8tA
AI, Connectomics & Transhumanism: the Future of Humankind

Episode 26 - https://youtu.be/HI8Zjl8VM8U
Dramatic Upheaval Inside Google's Ethical AI Team

Episode 27 - https://youtu.be/TqWwJYc2GxQ
AI & Cyber Espionage | How Will the Sunburst Attack Affect Our Security?

Episode 28 - https://youtu.be/89BcThqgcfQ
AI & the Rapidly Escalating Threat from Deep Fake Videos

Episode 29 - https://youtu.be/zvOHRMmJNB4
AI, Facial Recognition Technology & The Digital Surveillance State

Episode 30 - https://youtu.be/br4ygfEWdk0
AI & Social Media | The Most Destructive AI We've Ever Seen?

Episode 31 - https://youtu.be/sOy12ii8zwM
The Democratization of AI & The 2021 Maiflower Expedition | Plymouth, England to Plymouth, MA

Episode 32 - https://youtu.be/bixdLL74reE
Sino-American Cold War | A Blessing in Disguise for America?

Episode 33 - https://youtu.be/tTRm312DgMc
AI & the Tyranny of Meritocracy

Episode 34 - https://youtu.be/FpPzC5VP6GM
In the Midst of Chaos and Pandemic | A Big AI Announcement From the Trump Administration

Episode 35 - https://youtu.be/bK3xCBwrG8w
Artificial Super Intelligence – Can We Control It?

Episode 36 - https://youtu.be/Rc60DQ0L86Q
A New America | Hope with a Big Dose of Caution

Episode 37 - https://youtu.be/UBenYYHbYqM
Will AI [Science & Tech] Benefit From a New Cold War with China?

Episode 38 - https://youtu.be/JewJnPywnOU
Will AI Eventually Replace All Other Forms of Government?

Episode 39 - https://youtu.be/ibuJ8vozyqg
Will AI Perpetuate Bias in Employment, Health Systems, Law and Society?

Episode 40 - https://youtu.be/IJYbPfGC-08
AI | Will it be the Bain of Cyber Criminals?

Episode 41 - https://youtu.be/ozrO5_XTYKQ
AI | What Will it Mean for the Future of Work?

Episode 42 - https://youtu.be/kDKapDK-Vb0
AI | A Harbinger for the End of Democracy?

Episode 43 - https://youtu.be/7XeNyE8CA9I
AI & the Life Sciences | Developments in Connectomics & Radiology

Episode 44 - https://youtu.be/mWaPW_UolVo
AI & Geopolitics | Critical Strategic Planning in the Age of China

Episode 45 - https://youtu.be/qOSOc3vJRBk
AI & Humankind | What Might the Future Hold?

Episode 46 - https://youtu.be/atMSV1WAFkg
AI Enabled Surveillance | An Important Tool to Contain Dangerous Personality Traits?

Episode 47 - https://youtu.be/kz7-EDmlGXc
Will AI Favor Authoritarianism or Democracy?

Episode 48 - https://youtu.be/uTvKWQgdOaI
AI | A Key Enabler of Universal Basic Income?

Episode 49 - https://youtu.be/sy48Xqo-3qM
AI & The Future of Government, Industry, Markets &Trade

Episode 50 - https://youtu.be/JU1oGzb5TS0
AI & Surveillance | America’s New Strategy in the Middle East

Episode 51 - https://youtu.be/nOCQjUxLWJY
AI-Enabled Global Government | An Idea Whose Time Has Come?

Episode 52 - https://youtu.be/g1VJqiI3HyE
AI & Healthcare | What Will the Future Look Like? Will it be More Equitable?

Episode 53 - https://youtu.be/ie9KAg_kF7Q
AI & Surveillance | The Ethical Dilemma of Facial Recognition Software

Episode 54 - https://youtu.be/ie9KAg_kF7Q
AI & Regulation | Europe is Leading the Way

Episode 55 - https://youtu.be/l-gcYTZMsm8
AI & Consciousness | Will Machines Soon be Sentient?

Episode 56 - https://youtu.be/-8BaouCn9cs
AI & Regulation | Europe Announces New Rules

Episode 57 - https://youtu.be/243zm7aHImQ
AI & Human Emotion Recognition | Is it Inherently Flawed?

Episode 58 - https://youtu.be/rdXllGj8rbo
AI & Autonomous Vehicles | Where are We Now?

Episode 59 - https://youtu.be/EMbqpN5mbqw
AI & the 4 Little Trees | More on Emotion Recognition

Episode 60 - https://youtu.be/K5wtkj-VTrk
AI & the Colonial Pipeline Attack | Cyber Threats are Growing Rapidly

Episode 61 - https://youtu.be/03KysO3VJgI
AI & the Coronavirus | A Postmortem

Episode 62 - https://youtu.be/7wmSIWgbuQI
AI on the Battlefield | The Conflict in Gaza

Episode 63 - https://youtu.be/a_1AmLJD3lo
AI and Xenophobia | Will We Finally Break the Cycle?

Episode 64 - https://youtu.be/9s-Go1TYK9c
AI, Cyber Attacks & the Future of War | Where are We Headed?
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Published on June 15, 2021 13:37
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