'It is not in the American national interest to go to war against Iran anytime soon'

So I ran into a friend who knows a lot about U.S.
policy and Iran.
We sat down on a park bench and this is what he told me:

--

 

The worst possible thing to do is go to war with
Iran. The key is the people -- and they are sick of the mullahs. Right now the
pressure is working to separate the people from the regime. A limited strike
would undercut all that.

Also, any attack would cause us to maintain a
heightened, more expensive defense posture, and give them moral standing to
retaliate.

So an attack is counter to all our long-term
objectives. We are having more effect right now through economic pressure than
ever before.

There is no doubt [that there is a huge divergence
between U.S. interests and those of Israel]. 
We want to stop Israel
from attacking so the issue is how to persuade Israel that we are serious about
stopping Iran from having a weapon-like a congressional finding that we will
take all steps necessary to stop Iran. It means we will define red lines that
can't be crossed.

But the bottom line is, I don't know a single person in government, civilian or in uniform, who
thinks it is in our national interest to go to war with Iran now.

If we do go to war, it will not be small. Iran
could reconstitute its nuclear program in 
maybe five years, but if we go after its abilities to project military
power, we'd open a 15-year window."

--