AI | A Catalyst for Universal Basic Income?
AI | A Catalyst for Universal Basic Income?
Vicar Sayeedi
March 18, 2021
For some time now, political scientists, public intellectuals and thought leaders have been discussing the growing risks to global labor markets as Artificial Intelligence, Factory Automation and Robotics permeate virtually every industry and occupation. In 2020, Labor Economists in Germany published a report cautioning that 800 million jobs are likely to be displaced during this decade as a result of AI’s increasing capabilities across a broad spectrum of human endeavor, from the mundane to the sophisticated.
Within the Life Sciences we are observing the rapid encroachment of AI and Robotics in areas ranging from Diagnostics and Radiology to Advanced Surgery, and numerous areas in between. It is a very exciting time for patients since these technological advancements can be both cost effective as well as medically advanced. But it is also a very distressing time for many mid-career workers and professionals who are left wondering if they’ll soon be displaced. Countless young people are also unable to decide which professional occupation they ought to pursue to protect their own economic security and future.
Of course, the ultimate reality of the 4th Industrial Revolution is that labor costs will continue to fall as demand for human workers collapses. This will create the need for a Universal Basic Income. But what exactly do we mean when we speak of Universal Basic Income? Do we really mean Universal or do we actually mean National? Most likely it is the latter.
As advanced countries such as the United States and other Developed Economies increasingly automate production, it is very likely that the price of most consumer goods will continue to fall [as a result of the decline in the cost of manufacturing]. This will make corporations tremendously profitable and wealthy since labor costs have historically been the most significant line item on the income statement of any enterprise.
If legislators and policy makers manage the situation properly, governments can tax these wealthy corporations and provide a basic income to citizens. This will enable millions to live a decent and fulfilling life with ample time to engage with family and friends, to pursue the arts and so many other areas enriching to the human condition. But we must be careful to consider that work has been an important aspect of human identity since the birth of civilization some 12,000 years ago. Many people also measure their sense of self worth through their occupation and corresponding income. This will be a very dramatic shift in society and will require considerable time to adjust.
Unfortunately, paying a Universal Basic Income in Developing Economies will be much more difficult and probably impossible. Their governments are unlikely to be able to afford such schemes. Thus, a catastrophic reduction in low wage factory jobs making basic goods in these poorer nations will likely trigger tsunami like waves of uncontrolled economic migration from poor to rich countries. This tidal wave of desperate economic migrants will very likely result in previously unseen levels of social unrest as the ethical fabric of societies begins to fray as they desperately try to cope with the influx. Thus, we need to reconsider not only how we are going to manage National Basic Income schemes through effective fiscal policies in Developed Economies but also what we are going to do to ensure that we don’t trigger cascading waves of economic migrants from Developing Economies.
Perhaps the only solution will be to address this probable scenario within an international body such as the United Nations. But this will be very difficult. Historically, the contribution of Developing Nations to the global economy has been low cost labor. Since this requirement is increasingly being met locally within Developed Economies through the deployment of 4th Industrial Revolution technologies including AI, Factory Automation and Robotics, the Developing Nations will have nothing to offer and thus will have no seat at the table. Their only remaining leverage may be a threat to open their borders and allow as many people to emigrate to the Developed World as would like to go. Such a scenario will probably lead to unprecedented social unrest and probably terrible violence throughout the world.
If we are to prevent this calamity from unfolding in the not so distant future, we will need leadership by statesmen from across the world and across the political spectrum and we will need to begin planning now. Further, the solutions are unlikely to look anything like what we have previously seen and may involve the implementation of complex, unprecedented ideas researched, designed and developed by Artificial Intelligence, itself. This is the topic of my recent book The Génome Affair so I encourage everyone to make the time to read it.
Vicar Sayeedi is a Computer Scientist and Engineer, a Lecturer and a Consultant. Vicar is also the author of several books. His most recent book is about Artificial Intelligence and is titled, The Génome Affair.
Vicar is most interested in the big questions facing humankind. He is particularly focused on studying at the confluence of the five great disciplines of Human History, Political Science and Thought, International Affairs, Science and Technology. This intersection offers a deep understanding and pedagogically important lessons of how advances in human endeavor have influenced and impacted civilization.
Vicar has been writing books, essays and poetry for many years. For the past 30 years, Vicar has worked in the Technology and Pharmaceutical industries. He is currently a Consultant in the Life Sciences Industry and lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and their three grown children [if they decide to visit during the holidays!]
You can find Vicar’s recent book on AI, The Génome Affair on Amazon at this link:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07YQ7M9Q7
The most recent episodes of Vicar’s ai & u! Podcast are on YouTube at the following links:
Episode 1 - https://youtu.be/yNYr28jtY_k
What is Artificial Intelligence? What is Human Intelligence?
Episode 2 - https://youtu.be/kAEgDNh1Nwc
How Did We Get Here? Machine Learning, Neural Networks & the AI Lexicon, Exciting AI Agents
Episode 3 - https://youtu.be/3PYCyv1pCgM
Deep Mind - How Powerful is Narrow AI? State Surveillance and Surveillance Capitalism
Episode 4 - https://youtu.be/WvobCMIM_H4
Impact on Societies That Possess Artificial Intelligence Versus Those that Do Not!
Episode 5 - https://youtu.be/4JVpvm4g79g
Surveillance Capitalism, Surveillance State, 4th Industrial Revolution, Bifurcation of Sapiens
Episode 6 - https://youtu.be/e1q2GgcWQok
AI, Blockchain & Quantum Computing - Implications for Global and National Governance
Episode 7 - https://youtu.be/4bDSUvrOdd4
Popular Perceptions of Intelligence, the Seat of Human Intelligence and Implications for AI
Episode 8 - https://youtu.be/3GjHqQZL7Pk
AI - Why Should I care? Plus Exciting Updates from Elon Musk and Neuralink!
Episode 9 - https://youtu.be/enpecqDecC8
AI - Excellence, Innovation & Genius
Episode 10 - https://youtu.be/UsriESlTjdA
Implications for AI as China and the West Decouple
Episode 11 - https://youtu.be/0CpaMb-yw3g
Artificial Intelligence: Ethics, Law & Society
Episode 12 - https://youtu.be/PLzodrLWMq0
AI & Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems
Episode 13 - https://youtu.be/Lm_nrNyJRbA
AI & the Future of Work in Industry 4.0 – the 4th Industrial Revolution
Episode 14 - https://youtu.be/_3E1Mhr_Dt8
Artificial Intelligence and its Implications for Authoritarianism and Democracy
Episode 15 - https://youtu.be/IpMUqHOEd7w
Artificial Intelligence, Consciousness & the Future of Homo Sapiens
Episode 16 - https://youtu.be/mIf7_VMzGKo
AI and its Implications for America's Political Environment
Episode 17 - https://youtu.be/gsMRPnovZGI
Special Episode: Reading From The Génome Affair
Episode 18 - https://youtu.be/UxNxtWDCREM
Artificial Intelligence - Digital Tyranny, Datocracy and the Imitation Game
Episode 19 - https://youtu.be/Db8U0QQWWuY
Does Artificial Intelligence Really Replicate Human Intelligence?
Episode 20 - https://youtu.be/Np18AEq-6DM
AI & Rising Geopolitical Tensions Between China & The West
Episode 21 - https://youtu.be/fOMSvNiixA0
AI & In-vitro Fertilization [IVF]
Episode 22 - https://youtu.be/EQPpRhIV6Kw
AI & Human Intelligence: A Complex Relationship
Episode 23 - https://youtu.be/EAbQ7stY7JQ
AI Upends the World of Structural Biology
Episode 24 - https://youtu.be/Bsb1F8uoBpA
AI & COVID-19: An Extraordinary Contribution
Episode 25 - https://youtu.be/PqL5PCRc8tA
AI, Connectomics & Transhumanism: the Future of Humankind
Episode 26 - https://youtu.be/HI8Zjl8VM8U
Dramatic Upheaval Inside Google's Ethical AI Team
Episode 27 - https://youtu.be/TqWwJYc2GxQ
AI & Cyber Espionage | How Will the Sunburst Attack Affect Our Security?
Episode 28 - https://youtu.be/89BcThqgcfQ
AI & the Rapidly Escalating Threat from Deep Fake Videos
Episode 29 - https://youtu.be/zvOHRMmJNB4
AI, Facial Recognition Technology & The Digital Surveillance State
Episode 30 - https://youtu.be/br4ygfEWdk0
AI & Social Media | The Most Destructive AI We've Ever Seen?
Episode 31 - https://youtu.be/sOy12ii8zwM
The Democratization of AI & The 2021 Maiflower Expedition | Plymouth, England to Plymouth, MA
Episode 32 - https://youtu.be/bixdLL74reE
Sino-American Cold War | A Blessing in Disguise for America?
Episode 33 - https://youtu.be/tTRm312DgMc
AI & the Tyranny of Meritocracy
Episode 34 - https://youtu.be/FpPzC5VP6GM
In the Midst of Chaos and Pandemic | A Big AI Announcement From the Trump Administration
Episode 35 - https://youtu.be/bK3xCBwrG8w
Artificial Super Intelligence – Can We Control It?
Episode 36 - https://youtu.be/Rc60DQ0L86Q
A New America | Hope with a Big Dose of Caution
Episode 37 - https://youtu.be/UBenYYHbYqM
Will AI [Science & Tech] Benefit From a New Cold War with China?
Episode 38 - https://youtu.be/JewJnPywnOU
Will AI Eventually Replace All Other Forms of Government?
Episode 39 - https://youtu.be/ibuJ8vozyqg
Will AI Perpetuate Bias in Employment, Health Systems, Law and Society?
Episode 40 - https://youtu.be/IJYbPfGC-08
AI | Will it be the Bain of Cyber Criminals?
Episode 41 - https://youtu.be/ozrO5_XTYKQ
AI | What Will it Mean for the Future of Work?
Episode 42 - https://youtu.be/kDKapDK-Vb0
AI | A Harbinger for the End of Democracy?
Episode 43 - https://youtu.be/7XeNyE8CA9I
AI & the Life Sciences | Developments in Connectomics & Radiology
Episode 44 - https://youtu.be/mWaPW_UolVo
AI & Geopolitics | Critical Strategic Planning in the Age of China
Episode 45 - https://youtu.be/qOSOc3vJRBk
AI & Humankind | What Might the Future Hold?
Episode 46 - https://youtu.be/atMSV1WAFkg
AI Enabled Surveillance | An Important Tool to Contain Dangerous Personality Traits?
Episode 47 - https://youtu.be/kz7-EDmlGXc
Will AI Favor Authoritarianism or Democracy?
Episode 48 - https://youtu.be/uTvKWQgdOaI
AI | A Catalyst for Universal Basic Income?
Vicar Sayeedi
March 18, 2021
For some time now, political scientists, public intellectuals and thought leaders have been discussing the growing risks to global labor markets as Artificial Intelligence, Factory Automation and Robotics permeate virtually every industry and occupation. In 2020, Labor Economists in Germany published a report cautioning that 800 million jobs are likely to be displaced during this decade as a result of AI’s increasing capabilities across a broad spectrum of human endeavor, from the mundane to the sophisticated.
Within the Life Sciences we are observing the rapid encroachment of AI and Robotics in areas ranging from Diagnostics and Radiology to Advanced Surgery, and numerous areas in between. It is a very exciting time for patients since these technological advancements can be both cost effective as well as medically advanced. But it is also a very distressing time for many mid-career workers and professionals who are left wondering if they’ll soon be displaced. Countless young people are also unable to decide which professional occupation they ought to pursue to protect their own economic security and future.
Of course, the ultimate reality of the 4th Industrial Revolution is that labor costs will continue to fall as demand for human workers collapses. This will create the need for a Universal Basic Income. But what exactly do we mean when we speak of Universal Basic Income? Do we really mean Universal or do we actually mean National? Most likely it is the latter.
As advanced countries such as the United States and other Developed Economies increasingly automate production, it is very likely that the price of most consumer goods will continue to fall [as a result of the decline in the cost of manufacturing]. This will make corporations tremendously profitable and wealthy since labor costs have historically been the most significant line item on the income statement of any enterprise.
If legislators and policy makers manage the situation properly, governments can tax these wealthy corporations and provide a basic income to citizens. This will enable millions to live a decent and fulfilling life with ample time to engage with family and friends, to pursue the arts and so many other areas enriching to the human condition. But we must be careful to consider that work has been an important aspect of human identity since the birth of civilization some 12,000 years ago. Many people also measure their sense of self worth through their occupation and corresponding income. This will be a very dramatic shift in society and will require considerable time to adjust.
Unfortunately, paying a Universal Basic Income in Developing Economies will be much more difficult and probably impossible. Their governments are unlikely to be able to afford such schemes. Thus, a catastrophic reduction in low wage factory jobs making basic goods in these poorer nations will likely trigger tsunami like waves of uncontrolled economic migration from poor to rich countries. This tidal wave of desperate economic migrants will very likely result in previously unseen levels of social unrest as the ethical fabric of societies begins to fray as they desperately try to cope with the influx. Thus, we need to reconsider not only how we are going to manage National Basic Income schemes through effective fiscal policies in Developed Economies but also what we are going to do to ensure that we don’t trigger cascading waves of economic migrants from Developing Economies.
Perhaps the only solution will be to address this probable scenario within an international body such as the United Nations. But this will be very difficult. Historically, the contribution of Developing Nations to the global economy has been low cost labor. Since this requirement is increasingly being met locally within Developed Economies through the deployment of 4th Industrial Revolution technologies including AI, Factory Automation and Robotics, the Developing Nations will have nothing to offer and thus will have no seat at the table. Their only remaining leverage may be a threat to open their borders and allow as many people to emigrate to the Developed World as would like to go. Such a scenario will probably lead to unprecedented social unrest and probably terrible violence throughout the world.
If we are to prevent this calamity from unfolding in the not so distant future, we will need leadership by statesmen from across the world and across the political spectrum and we will need to begin planning now. Further, the solutions are unlikely to look anything like what we have previously seen and may involve the implementation of complex, unprecedented ideas researched, designed and developed by Artificial Intelligence, itself. This is the topic of my recent book The Génome Affair so I encourage everyone to make the time to read it.
Vicar Sayeedi is a Computer Scientist and Engineer, a Lecturer and a Consultant. Vicar is also the author of several books. His most recent book is about Artificial Intelligence and is titled, The Génome Affair.
Vicar is most interested in the big questions facing humankind. He is particularly focused on studying at the confluence of the five great disciplines of Human History, Political Science and Thought, International Affairs, Science and Technology. This intersection offers a deep understanding and pedagogically important lessons of how advances in human endeavor have influenced and impacted civilization.
Vicar has been writing books, essays and poetry for many years. For the past 30 years, Vicar has worked in the Technology and Pharmaceutical industries. He is currently a Consultant in the Life Sciences Industry and lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and their three grown children [if they decide to visit during the holidays!]
You can find Vicar’s recent book on AI, The Génome Affair on Amazon at this link:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07YQ7M9Q7
The most recent episodes of Vicar’s ai & u! Podcast are on YouTube at the following links:
Episode 1 - https://youtu.be/yNYr28jtY_k
What is Artificial Intelligence? What is Human Intelligence?
Episode 2 - https://youtu.be/kAEgDNh1Nwc
How Did We Get Here? Machine Learning, Neural Networks & the AI Lexicon, Exciting AI Agents
Episode 3 - https://youtu.be/3PYCyv1pCgM
Deep Mind - How Powerful is Narrow AI? State Surveillance and Surveillance Capitalism
Episode 4 - https://youtu.be/WvobCMIM_H4
Impact on Societies That Possess Artificial Intelligence Versus Those that Do Not!
Episode 5 - https://youtu.be/4JVpvm4g79g
Surveillance Capitalism, Surveillance State, 4th Industrial Revolution, Bifurcation of Sapiens
Episode 6 - https://youtu.be/e1q2GgcWQok
AI, Blockchain & Quantum Computing - Implications for Global and National Governance
Episode 7 - https://youtu.be/4bDSUvrOdd4
Popular Perceptions of Intelligence, the Seat of Human Intelligence and Implications for AI
Episode 8 - https://youtu.be/3GjHqQZL7Pk
AI - Why Should I care? Plus Exciting Updates from Elon Musk and Neuralink!
Episode 9 - https://youtu.be/enpecqDecC8
AI - Excellence, Innovation & Genius
Episode 10 - https://youtu.be/UsriESlTjdA
Implications for AI as China and the West Decouple
Episode 11 - https://youtu.be/0CpaMb-yw3g
Artificial Intelligence: Ethics, Law & Society
Episode 12 - https://youtu.be/PLzodrLWMq0
AI & Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems
Episode 13 - https://youtu.be/Lm_nrNyJRbA
AI & the Future of Work in Industry 4.0 – the 4th Industrial Revolution
Episode 14 - https://youtu.be/_3E1Mhr_Dt8
Artificial Intelligence and its Implications for Authoritarianism and Democracy
Episode 15 - https://youtu.be/IpMUqHOEd7w
Artificial Intelligence, Consciousness & the Future of Homo Sapiens
Episode 16 - https://youtu.be/mIf7_VMzGKo
AI and its Implications for America's Political Environment
Episode 17 - https://youtu.be/gsMRPnovZGI
Special Episode: Reading From The Génome Affair
Episode 18 - https://youtu.be/UxNxtWDCREM
Artificial Intelligence - Digital Tyranny, Datocracy and the Imitation Game
Episode 19 - https://youtu.be/Db8U0QQWWuY
Does Artificial Intelligence Really Replicate Human Intelligence?
Episode 20 - https://youtu.be/Np18AEq-6DM
AI & Rising Geopolitical Tensions Between China & The West
Episode 21 - https://youtu.be/fOMSvNiixA0
AI & In-vitro Fertilization [IVF]
Episode 22 - https://youtu.be/EQPpRhIV6Kw
AI & Human Intelligence: A Complex Relationship
Episode 23 - https://youtu.be/EAbQ7stY7JQ
AI Upends the World of Structural Biology
Episode 24 - https://youtu.be/Bsb1F8uoBpA
AI & COVID-19: An Extraordinary Contribution
Episode 25 - https://youtu.be/PqL5PCRc8tA
AI, Connectomics & Transhumanism: the Future of Humankind
Episode 26 - https://youtu.be/HI8Zjl8VM8U
Dramatic Upheaval Inside Google's Ethical AI Team
Episode 27 - https://youtu.be/TqWwJYc2GxQ
AI & Cyber Espionage | How Will the Sunburst Attack Affect Our Security?
Episode 28 - https://youtu.be/89BcThqgcfQ
AI & the Rapidly Escalating Threat from Deep Fake Videos
Episode 29 - https://youtu.be/zvOHRMmJNB4
AI, Facial Recognition Technology & The Digital Surveillance State
Episode 30 - https://youtu.be/br4ygfEWdk0
AI & Social Media | The Most Destructive AI We've Ever Seen?
Episode 31 - https://youtu.be/sOy12ii8zwM
The Democratization of AI & The 2021 Maiflower Expedition | Plymouth, England to Plymouth, MA
Episode 32 - https://youtu.be/bixdLL74reE
Sino-American Cold War | A Blessing in Disguise for America?
Episode 33 - https://youtu.be/tTRm312DgMc
AI & the Tyranny of Meritocracy
Episode 34 - https://youtu.be/FpPzC5VP6GM
In the Midst of Chaos and Pandemic | A Big AI Announcement From the Trump Administration
Episode 35 - https://youtu.be/bK3xCBwrG8w
Artificial Super Intelligence – Can We Control It?
Episode 36 - https://youtu.be/Rc60DQ0L86Q
A New America | Hope with a Big Dose of Caution
Episode 37 - https://youtu.be/UBenYYHbYqM
Will AI [Science & Tech] Benefit From a New Cold War with China?
Episode 38 - https://youtu.be/JewJnPywnOU
Will AI Eventually Replace All Other Forms of Government?
Episode 39 - https://youtu.be/ibuJ8vozyqg
Will AI Perpetuate Bias in Employment, Health Systems, Law and Society?
Episode 40 - https://youtu.be/IJYbPfGC-08
AI | Will it be the Bain of Cyber Criminals?
Episode 41 - https://youtu.be/ozrO5_XTYKQ
AI | What Will it Mean for the Future of Work?
Episode 42 - https://youtu.be/kDKapDK-Vb0
AI | A Harbinger for the End of Democracy?
Episode 43 - https://youtu.be/7XeNyE8CA9I
AI & the Life Sciences | Developments in Connectomics & Radiology
Episode 44 - https://youtu.be/mWaPW_UolVo
AI & Geopolitics | Critical Strategic Planning in the Age of China
Episode 45 - https://youtu.be/qOSOc3vJRBk
AI & Humankind | What Might the Future Hold?
Episode 46 - https://youtu.be/atMSV1WAFkg
AI Enabled Surveillance | An Important Tool to Contain Dangerous Personality Traits?
Episode 47 - https://youtu.be/kz7-EDmlGXc
Will AI Favor Authoritarianism or Democracy?
Episode 48 - https://youtu.be/uTvKWQgdOaI
AI | A Catalyst for Universal Basic Income?
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