24,000 days old
I’m about 24,000 days old. Despite everything that’s happened over the last 65 years, one change in the material world stands out to me the most.
When I was born in 1955, fewer than 3 billion people lived on the Earth. According to YaleGlobalOnline, that number reached 7.8 billion in March 2020.
During my lifetime, the world population has more than doubled — and there was hardly a shortage of human beings on the planet 65 years ago. When my parents were born, there were only 2 billion people. In 1804, there was 1 billion.
We should hit 8 billion in 2023, 9 billion by 2037, and 10 billion by 2056.
I can’t imagine a billion people, but I know what population growth has meant to me — this single memory, multiplied by everywhere:
When I was eight or nine years old, my friends and I would ride our bikes from our homes in Greendale, Wisconsin, to Boerner Botanical Gardens, about three miles away. (We were free-range children.) The quiet ride took us through suburbs and past farm fields and groves of trees.
The biggest crossroads was 76th Street at Grange Avenue. Grange, a two-lane country road, had a stop sign, and 76th didn’t, but it held such scant traffic that an eight-year-old had no trouble peddling across it safely.
Less than a decade later, Southridge Mall opened at that corner, and more development followed. Now, as the photo from Google Maps shows, Grange Avenue is a four-lane boulevard plus turn lanes and 76th Street has six lanes, and the crossroad can intimidate anyone not in an SUV. The fields have been paved over. The once-quiet country road bustles day and night.
Everywhere that I’ve lived and visited, roads and buildings grow and grow endlessly.
That’s what billions more people mean to me: more cars, more pavement, and more buildings — but fewer farm fields, fewer trees, fewer kid-friendly spaces, and less peace and quiet.
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I’ve posted a new article, “What’s a masterpiece worth?” How much did Cervantes get paid for Don Quixote of La Mancha? We don’t really know, but I try to come up with an estimate, and it jives with other estimates. He earned a pittance. Read the article here.
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Was that your birthday?If it was, then I belatedly—and if it wasn’t, then just generally— send my best wishes for health (!) and happiness!
I have a counter on my Mac, today it says “23282 days since Tom was born” … so I’m just a little bit younger than you (*1957).
Reading your text made me remember …
… how much space I had for exploration when I was a child in the 1960s … my parents worked for German development aid in a hospital in a rural area in Kerala, South India … and I was allowed, at age of four and five already (!), to roam freely, alone and with my Indian friends; I knew an area of about five or more kilometers diameter like the back of my hand—today such parents would probably be sued for “parental neglect” but for me it was the best that could happen, and I am very thankful for how much my parents trusted me and my Indian friends and their families—trusted also my sense for who were friends … I learned SO MUCH, the world in my mind grew SO BIG!
When I had to return to Germany at age of 11 I was quite surprised how little other kids knew their surroundings, bicycles or not; and today it is even sadder, some kids on such a short leash that they don’t know anything further than 500 meters away. And yeah, “helicopter parents” 🙄
So… thanks for triggering such a flashback to the magical land of my childhood.
________________
On another note, and I hope it is not rude to ask, much the more as it is off-topic—and in that case, please forgive me: are we going to see another book in your mindblowing Semiosis/Interference universe?
I’d immediately pre-order—and pay for—ten copies if it would help make it happen 😁
Cordial greetings from Germany,
Tom
p.s.: And yes, we must not give up hope, never mind how dark the prospect. I let my little wild garden grow mostly as it likes—just so much that the neighbours won’t report me to the public order office … I feed birds and make breeding places for them and other small animals … trying to keep this small ecosphere that is in my responsibility as natural and healthy as possible.
Hello Tom,The date wasn't my birthday, but it was a nice round number of days. I am a little bit older than you.
I agree with you about kids these days. I am genuinely sorry for them. There was a certain feeling of freedom to be where Mom couldn't find you, but also a feeling of responsibility because Mom couldn't rescue you. I learned not just geography but self-reliance and problem-solving. If kids can never make mistakes on their own, that cuts off a lot of learning opportunities.
As for a continuation of the Pax series, there's good news. It will become a trilogy. The contract is signed. Semiosis, Interference, Usurpation. The bad news is that, due to covid, which moved around a lot of deadlines, the book won't be published until 2024. But it is underway. I have a few chapters and an outline.
All the best from Chicago,
Sue
P.S. Congratulations on your garden. Even just a few "weeds" can mean life for a lot of species, especially insects. You're doing important work!
Hello Sue,thanks for your reply 🙏 and … wow, that’s awesome news re: the Pax _trilogy_ … makes me very happy and excited … now I need to live a little longer just to be able to read it :-)
Happy also for you, that you got a contract, which I hope makes your life livable plus plus.
And lastly: THANKS for your Pax books!
I’ve been reading SF since age of six (my father passed ’em down to me) … a few thousand SF books … and these your Pax universe books belong to the very best I’ve read, unforgettable. Thank you, thank you, thank you!
Cordially,
Tom
In just the last year, we have seen the decline of commuting as people get to work from home. In the innovative countries, of which Australia is not, remote working will reduce traffic. Maybe houses will decrease in cost, too, and people will be able to move out of home earlier, so that houses don't have five cars per house. In the 1960's we could play on the streets because once people could drive, they could move out of home and afford a place of their own. The traffic was better distributed.
To ride a bike safely, your choices are the Cariibean or Amsterdam. Maybe the Netherlands Antilles are the best of both worlds.
And population sta6tistics aren't that reliable, anyway. The pandemic baby boom hasn't happened - anywhere. So those projections just might not happen.