AI – What Will it Mean for the Future of Work?
AI – What Will it Mean for the Future of Work?
Vicar Sayeedi
February 18, 2021
As Artificial Intelligence becomes increasingly pervasive throughout society, many well meaning AI experts and public intellectuals are working to reassure people that Artificial Intelligence isn’t the threat to their economic future or way of life that they’ve heard or imagined. AI proponents use disarming language and words such as “augment” and “collaborative” to soften the blow that words like “displace” or “replace” might otherwise inspire. It is more reassuring and acceptable to think about and visualize a world where AI is supporting us in our roles, hence setting us free from the performance of tedious activities so we can engage with more intellectually stimulating and therefore fulfilling tasks. It’s certainly reassuring for us to believe that we will remain in control of our world and that AI will be subservient to us and will only augment our efforts.
To be fair, in the near term, augmentation and collaboration are probably accurate when we consider the impact AI will likely have on many human vocations. For example, it’s unlikely that Radiologists will be substantially replaced by Artificial Intelligence this year or even in the next five years. But by 2030, replacement may be much more likely the rule rather than the exception. Thus, it may be best for us to face reality now and be more straightforward when discussing the impacts AI is likely to have on jobs. AI continues to advance with each passing day and is becoming faster, less expensive and more precise in its results. Given this unmistakable trajectory, it is exceedingly likely that AI will displace hundreds of millions of workers across the spectrum of occupations by the end of this decade. In fact, this is the forecast from labor economists in Germany – they have projected the displacement of ~800 million jobs worldwide by the end of the decade with ~73 million of those jobs being in the United States.
With this reality in mind, if we are to effectively prepare ourselves for the impact that AI will have on society in the coming years, it is important for us to be more forthright when discussing this issue with society. We must accept that AI is not just another device or tool that can make our work and lives easier or more comfortable so we need to rethink our future proactively. At the same time, politicians realize that an issue of such dramatic consequence is political dynamite so the political class has been steering clear of any discussion regarding this gathering storm. In the 2020 election cycle in the United States, there was no mention of AI or any other 4th Industrial Revolution technology and it’s implications for the future of work.
Entrepreneurs, politicians, scientists and technologists have much to gain by leading citizens and the electorate to believe that AI will not replace them but will simply augment or complement them in the workforce. Employment remains one of the most basic social and political necessities in every society in the world today. To be openly advocating, promoting or otherwise working towards technologies that will result in the destruction of jobs is a losing proposition for any academic institution, commercial enterprise or political party.
So business leaders often claim that AI will bring humans and machines closer together. They say AI is not about machines replacing humans, but machines augmenting humans. Humans and machines have different relative strengths and weaknesses, and the combination of these two will enable businesses to dramatically improve things in the future. This is all just a pleasant way to soften the blow that AI will eventually deliver. But the fundamental long-term objective of AI is to perform the very same function humans can perform but to be able to perform them more precisely, more cost effectively and much quicker than humans currently can or will ever be able to. Once AI fulfills this fundamental objective, there will be no credible economic or social reason for the continued involvement of humans in a multitude of areas of endeavor or occupation.
Consider self driving vehicles: once an AI Agent can more safely operate a vehicle in all conceivable conditions than a human can, there will be no justification for humans to continue to drive buses, taxis, trains or trucks. AI Agents in command of these vehicles will never exceed speed limits, they will never be distracted and they will never drive while inebriated. Such AI Agents are capable of staying on the road indefinitely without any negative consequences.
Although the technology companies that are now developing these AI Agents are unlikely to acknowledge these realities, their long-term objective is not to simply augment or collaborate with humans who currently perform these or so many other functions, but rather it is to unequivocally replace them. This is where the return on their investment truly lies.
Consider the field of Radiology. The primary task of a Radiologist is to examine various modalities of medical images in an effort to confirm or reject the presence of some pathology. This is essentially an exercise in pattern recognition and object detection across a range of diagnostic images. As it turns out, this is exactly the optimal capability of a Deep Learning Neural Network underpinning AI. A common refrain in the Radiology community is “AI will not replace Radiologists, but Radiologists who use AI will replace Radiologists who don’t.” In other words, Radiologists must move towards the new reality in which they use AI Agents to assist them and collaborate with them in their work.
Undeniably, in the short term this is likely to be precisely the case. AI systems are generally unlikely to replace humans overnight, not in Radiology and not in any other field, simply because it will take time to develop the technology to a degree where it can comprehensively replace humans. Initially then, AI will augment human Radiologists. AI Agents will be used to confirm a Radiologist’s initial findings or medical opinion or to help examine the ever-growing volumes and modalities of diagnostic images, to triage them into an order that will then require human review.
But by the middle of this decade, once it is confirmed that AI Agents are superior to human Radiologists at identifying and diagnosing pathology across all modalities of images, it will no longer make commercial or medical sense to continue using Radiologists. AI Agents are able to review images instantly and they can do so for patients anywhere in the world while simultaneously continuing to improve their performance with each image they read.
Thus, in the controversial words of the Godfather of Deep Learning Neural Networks, Geoff Hinton: “We should stop training Radiologists now. If you work as a Radiologist, you are like Wile E. Coyote in the cartoon; you’re already over the edge of the cliff, but you haven’t looked down.”
What will this mean for humankind? It is very likely that there will be a great deal of human suffering – emotional, financial and social – as a result of this new age of massive job loss. And these losses will take place across all geographies, industries and social strata. It is probable that we will witness job redundancy in areas as diverse as actuaries and accountants, bankers and booksellers, cashiers and clinicians, livery drivers and lawyers. During this decade, human workers across the economy will increasingly find their skills out of favor and their roles obsolete as increasingly sophisticated AI systems are able to perform so many activities better, cheaper and faster than humans have ever been able to. This is an inevitability that is best acknowledged today so we can plan for the impending storm. In a future essay I’ll discuss what leaders of society can do to prepare for the impacts of the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Vicar Sayeedi is a Computer Scientist and Engineer, a Lecturer and a Consultant. Vicar is also the author of several books. His most recent book is about Artificial Intelligence and is titled, The Génome Affair.
Vicar is most interested in the big questions facing humankind. He is particularly focused on studying at the confluence of the five great disciplines of Human History, Political Science and Thought, International Affairs, Science and Technology. This intersection offers a deep understanding and pedagogically important lessons of how advances in human endeavor have influenced and impacted civilization.
Vicar has been writing books, essays and poetry for many years. For the past 30 years, Vicar has worked in the Technology and Pharmaceutical industries. He is currently a Consultant in the Life Sciences Industry and lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and their three grown children [if they decide to visit during the holidays!]
You can find Vicar’s recent book on AI, The Génome Affair on Amazon at this link:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07YQ7M9Q7
The most recent episodes of Vicar’s ai & u! Podcast are on YouTube at the following links:
Episode 1 - https://youtu.be/yNYr28jtY_k
What is Artificial Intelligence? What is Human Intelligence?
Episode 2 - https://youtu.be/kAEgDNh1Nwc
How Did We Get Here? Machine Learning, Neural Networks & the AI Lexicon, Exciting AI Agents
Episode 3 - https://youtu.be/3PYCyv1pCgM
Deep Mind - How Powerful is Narrow AI? State Surveillance and Surveillance Capitalism
Episode 4 - https://youtu.be/WvobCMIM_H4
Impact on Societies That Possess Artificial Intelligence Versus Those that Do Not!
Episode 5 - https://youtu.be/4JVpvm4g79g
Surveillance Capitalism, Surveillance State, 4th Industrial Revolution, Bifurcation of Sapiens
Episode 6 - https://youtu.be/e1q2GgcWQok
AI, Blockchain & Quantum Computing - Implications for Global and National Governance
Episode 7 - https://youtu.be/4bDSUvrOdd4
Popular Perceptions of Intelligence, the Seat of Human Intelligence and Implications for AI
Episode 8 - https://youtu.be/3GjHqQZL7Pk
AI - Why Should I care? Plus Exciting Updates from Elon Musk and Neuralink!
Episode 9 - https://youtu.be/enpecqDecC8
AI - Excellence, Innovation & Genius
Episode 10 - https://youtu.be/UsriESlTjdA
Implications for AI as China and the West Decouple
Episode 11 - https://youtu.be/0CpaMb-yw3g
Artificial Intelligence: Ethics, Law & Society
Episode 12 - https://youtu.be/PLzodrLWMq0
AI & Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems
Episode 13 - https://youtu.be/Lm_nrNyJRbA
AI & the Future of Work in Industry 4.0 – the 4th Industrial Revolution
Episode 14 - https://youtu.be/_3E1Mhr_Dt8
Artificial Intelligence and its Implications for Authoritarianism and Democracy
Episode 15 - https://youtu.be/IpMUqHOEd7w
Artificial Intelligence, Consciousness & the Future of Homo Sapiens
Episode 16 - https://youtu.be/mIf7_VMzGKo
AI and its Implications for America's Political Environment
Episode 17 - https://youtu.be/gsMRPnovZGI
Special Episode: Reading From The Génome Affair
Episode 18 - https://youtu.be/UxNxtWDCREM
Artificial Intelligence - Digital Tyranny, Datocracy and the Imitation Game
Episode 19 - https://youtu.be/Db8U0QQWWuY
Does Artificial Intelligence Really Replicate Human Intelligence?
Episode 20 - https://youtu.be/Np18AEq-6DM
AI & Rising Geopolitical Tensions Between China & The West
Episode 21 - https://youtu.be/fOMSvNiixA0
AI & In-vitro Fertilization [IVF]
Episode 22 - https://youtu.be/EQPpRhIV6Kw
AI & Human Intelligence: A Complex Relationship
Episode 23 - https://youtu.be/EAbQ7stY7JQ
AI Upends the World of Structural Biology
Episode 24 - https://youtu.be/Bsb1F8uoBpA
AI & COVID-19: An Extraordinary Contribution
Episode 25 - https://youtu.be/PqL5PCRc8tA
AI, Connectomics & Transhumanism: the Future of Humankind
Episode 26 - https://youtu.be/HI8Zjl8VM8U
Dramatic Upheaval Inside Google's Ethical AI Team
Episode 27 - https://youtu.be/TqWwJYc2GxQ
AI & Cyber Espionage | How Will the Sunburst Attack Affect Our Security?
Episode 28 - https://youtu.be/89BcThqgcfQ
AI & the Rapidly Escalating Threat from Deep Fake Videos
Episode 29 - https://youtu.be/zvOHRMmJNB4
AI, Facial Recognition Technology & The Digital Surveillance State
Episode 30 - https://youtu.be/br4ygfEWdk0
AI & Social Media | The Most Destructive AI We’ve Ever Seen?
Episode 31 - https://youtu.be/sOy12ii8zwM
The Democratization of AI & The 2021 Maiflower Expedition | Plymouth, England to Plymouth, MA
Episode 32 - https://youtu.be/bixdLL74reE
Sino-American Cold War | A Blessing in Disguise for America?
Episode 33 - https://youtu.be/tTRm312DgMc
AI & the Tyranny of Meritocracy
Episode 34 - https://youtu.be/FpPzC5VP6GM
In the Midst of Chaos and Pandemic | A Big AI Announcement From the Trump Administration
Episode 35 - https://youtu.be/bK3xCBwrG8w
Artificial Super Intelligence – Can We Control It?
Episode 36 - https://youtu.be/Rc60DQ0L86Q
A New America | Hope with a Big Dose of Caution
Episode 37 - https://youtu.be/UBenYYHbYqM
Will AI [Science & Tech] Benefit From a New Cold War with China?
Episode 38 - https://youtu.be/JewJnPywnOU
Will AI Eventually Replace All Other Forms of Government?
Episode 39 - https://youtu.be/ibuJ8vozyqg
Will AI Perpetuate Bias in Employment, Health Systems, Law and Society?
Episode 40 - https://youtu.be/IJYbPfGC-08
AI | Will it be the Bain of Cyber Criminals?
Episode 41 - https://youtu.be/ozrO5_XTYKQ
AI | What Will it Mean for the Future of Work?
Vicar Sayeedi
February 18, 2021
As Artificial Intelligence becomes increasingly pervasive throughout society, many well meaning AI experts and public intellectuals are working to reassure people that Artificial Intelligence isn’t the threat to their economic future or way of life that they’ve heard or imagined. AI proponents use disarming language and words such as “augment” and “collaborative” to soften the blow that words like “displace” or “replace” might otherwise inspire. It is more reassuring and acceptable to think about and visualize a world where AI is supporting us in our roles, hence setting us free from the performance of tedious activities so we can engage with more intellectually stimulating and therefore fulfilling tasks. It’s certainly reassuring for us to believe that we will remain in control of our world and that AI will be subservient to us and will only augment our efforts.
To be fair, in the near term, augmentation and collaboration are probably accurate when we consider the impact AI will likely have on many human vocations. For example, it’s unlikely that Radiologists will be substantially replaced by Artificial Intelligence this year or even in the next five years. But by 2030, replacement may be much more likely the rule rather than the exception. Thus, it may be best for us to face reality now and be more straightforward when discussing the impacts AI is likely to have on jobs. AI continues to advance with each passing day and is becoming faster, less expensive and more precise in its results. Given this unmistakable trajectory, it is exceedingly likely that AI will displace hundreds of millions of workers across the spectrum of occupations by the end of this decade. In fact, this is the forecast from labor economists in Germany – they have projected the displacement of ~800 million jobs worldwide by the end of the decade with ~73 million of those jobs being in the United States.
With this reality in mind, if we are to effectively prepare ourselves for the impact that AI will have on society in the coming years, it is important for us to be more forthright when discussing this issue with society. We must accept that AI is not just another device or tool that can make our work and lives easier or more comfortable so we need to rethink our future proactively. At the same time, politicians realize that an issue of such dramatic consequence is political dynamite so the political class has been steering clear of any discussion regarding this gathering storm. In the 2020 election cycle in the United States, there was no mention of AI or any other 4th Industrial Revolution technology and it’s implications for the future of work.
Entrepreneurs, politicians, scientists and technologists have much to gain by leading citizens and the electorate to believe that AI will not replace them but will simply augment or complement them in the workforce. Employment remains one of the most basic social and political necessities in every society in the world today. To be openly advocating, promoting or otherwise working towards technologies that will result in the destruction of jobs is a losing proposition for any academic institution, commercial enterprise or political party.
So business leaders often claim that AI will bring humans and machines closer together. They say AI is not about machines replacing humans, but machines augmenting humans. Humans and machines have different relative strengths and weaknesses, and the combination of these two will enable businesses to dramatically improve things in the future. This is all just a pleasant way to soften the blow that AI will eventually deliver. But the fundamental long-term objective of AI is to perform the very same function humans can perform but to be able to perform them more precisely, more cost effectively and much quicker than humans currently can or will ever be able to. Once AI fulfills this fundamental objective, there will be no credible economic or social reason for the continued involvement of humans in a multitude of areas of endeavor or occupation.
Consider self driving vehicles: once an AI Agent can more safely operate a vehicle in all conceivable conditions than a human can, there will be no justification for humans to continue to drive buses, taxis, trains or trucks. AI Agents in command of these vehicles will never exceed speed limits, they will never be distracted and they will never drive while inebriated. Such AI Agents are capable of staying on the road indefinitely without any negative consequences.
Although the technology companies that are now developing these AI Agents are unlikely to acknowledge these realities, their long-term objective is not to simply augment or collaborate with humans who currently perform these or so many other functions, but rather it is to unequivocally replace them. This is where the return on their investment truly lies.
Consider the field of Radiology. The primary task of a Radiologist is to examine various modalities of medical images in an effort to confirm or reject the presence of some pathology. This is essentially an exercise in pattern recognition and object detection across a range of diagnostic images. As it turns out, this is exactly the optimal capability of a Deep Learning Neural Network underpinning AI. A common refrain in the Radiology community is “AI will not replace Radiologists, but Radiologists who use AI will replace Radiologists who don’t.” In other words, Radiologists must move towards the new reality in which they use AI Agents to assist them and collaborate with them in their work.
Undeniably, in the short term this is likely to be precisely the case. AI systems are generally unlikely to replace humans overnight, not in Radiology and not in any other field, simply because it will take time to develop the technology to a degree where it can comprehensively replace humans. Initially then, AI will augment human Radiologists. AI Agents will be used to confirm a Radiologist’s initial findings or medical opinion or to help examine the ever-growing volumes and modalities of diagnostic images, to triage them into an order that will then require human review.
But by the middle of this decade, once it is confirmed that AI Agents are superior to human Radiologists at identifying and diagnosing pathology across all modalities of images, it will no longer make commercial or medical sense to continue using Radiologists. AI Agents are able to review images instantly and they can do so for patients anywhere in the world while simultaneously continuing to improve their performance with each image they read.
Thus, in the controversial words of the Godfather of Deep Learning Neural Networks, Geoff Hinton: “We should stop training Radiologists now. If you work as a Radiologist, you are like Wile E. Coyote in the cartoon; you’re already over the edge of the cliff, but you haven’t looked down.”
What will this mean for humankind? It is very likely that there will be a great deal of human suffering – emotional, financial and social – as a result of this new age of massive job loss. And these losses will take place across all geographies, industries and social strata. It is probable that we will witness job redundancy in areas as diverse as actuaries and accountants, bankers and booksellers, cashiers and clinicians, livery drivers and lawyers. During this decade, human workers across the economy will increasingly find their skills out of favor and their roles obsolete as increasingly sophisticated AI systems are able to perform so many activities better, cheaper and faster than humans have ever been able to. This is an inevitability that is best acknowledged today so we can plan for the impending storm. In a future essay I’ll discuss what leaders of society can do to prepare for the impacts of the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Vicar Sayeedi is a Computer Scientist and Engineer, a Lecturer and a Consultant. Vicar is also the author of several books. His most recent book is about Artificial Intelligence and is titled, The Génome Affair.
Vicar is most interested in the big questions facing humankind. He is particularly focused on studying at the confluence of the five great disciplines of Human History, Political Science and Thought, International Affairs, Science and Technology. This intersection offers a deep understanding and pedagogically important lessons of how advances in human endeavor have influenced and impacted civilization.
Vicar has been writing books, essays and poetry for many years. For the past 30 years, Vicar has worked in the Technology and Pharmaceutical industries. He is currently a Consultant in the Life Sciences Industry and lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and their three grown children [if they decide to visit during the holidays!]
You can find Vicar’s recent book on AI, The Génome Affair on Amazon at this link:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07YQ7M9Q7
The most recent episodes of Vicar’s ai & u! Podcast are on YouTube at the following links:
Episode 1 - https://youtu.be/yNYr28jtY_k
What is Artificial Intelligence? What is Human Intelligence?
Episode 2 - https://youtu.be/kAEgDNh1Nwc
How Did We Get Here? Machine Learning, Neural Networks & the AI Lexicon, Exciting AI Agents
Episode 3 - https://youtu.be/3PYCyv1pCgM
Deep Mind - How Powerful is Narrow AI? State Surveillance and Surveillance Capitalism
Episode 4 - https://youtu.be/WvobCMIM_H4
Impact on Societies That Possess Artificial Intelligence Versus Those that Do Not!
Episode 5 - https://youtu.be/4JVpvm4g79g
Surveillance Capitalism, Surveillance State, 4th Industrial Revolution, Bifurcation of Sapiens
Episode 6 - https://youtu.be/e1q2GgcWQok
AI, Blockchain & Quantum Computing - Implications for Global and National Governance
Episode 7 - https://youtu.be/4bDSUvrOdd4
Popular Perceptions of Intelligence, the Seat of Human Intelligence and Implications for AI
Episode 8 - https://youtu.be/3GjHqQZL7Pk
AI - Why Should I care? Plus Exciting Updates from Elon Musk and Neuralink!
Episode 9 - https://youtu.be/enpecqDecC8
AI - Excellence, Innovation & Genius
Episode 10 - https://youtu.be/UsriESlTjdA
Implications for AI as China and the West Decouple
Episode 11 - https://youtu.be/0CpaMb-yw3g
Artificial Intelligence: Ethics, Law & Society
Episode 12 - https://youtu.be/PLzodrLWMq0
AI & Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems
Episode 13 - https://youtu.be/Lm_nrNyJRbA
AI & the Future of Work in Industry 4.0 – the 4th Industrial Revolution
Episode 14 - https://youtu.be/_3E1Mhr_Dt8
Artificial Intelligence and its Implications for Authoritarianism and Democracy
Episode 15 - https://youtu.be/IpMUqHOEd7w
Artificial Intelligence, Consciousness & the Future of Homo Sapiens
Episode 16 - https://youtu.be/mIf7_VMzGKo
AI and its Implications for America's Political Environment
Episode 17 - https://youtu.be/gsMRPnovZGI
Special Episode: Reading From The Génome Affair
Episode 18 - https://youtu.be/UxNxtWDCREM
Artificial Intelligence - Digital Tyranny, Datocracy and the Imitation Game
Episode 19 - https://youtu.be/Db8U0QQWWuY
Does Artificial Intelligence Really Replicate Human Intelligence?
Episode 20 - https://youtu.be/Np18AEq-6DM
AI & Rising Geopolitical Tensions Between China & The West
Episode 21 - https://youtu.be/fOMSvNiixA0
AI & In-vitro Fertilization [IVF]
Episode 22 - https://youtu.be/EQPpRhIV6Kw
AI & Human Intelligence: A Complex Relationship
Episode 23 - https://youtu.be/EAbQ7stY7JQ
AI Upends the World of Structural Biology
Episode 24 - https://youtu.be/Bsb1F8uoBpA
AI & COVID-19: An Extraordinary Contribution
Episode 25 - https://youtu.be/PqL5PCRc8tA
AI, Connectomics & Transhumanism: the Future of Humankind
Episode 26 - https://youtu.be/HI8Zjl8VM8U
Dramatic Upheaval Inside Google's Ethical AI Team
Episode 27 - https://youtu.be/TqWwJYc2GxQ
AI & Cyber Espionage | How Will the Sunburst Attack Affect Our Security?
Episode 28 - https://youtu.be/89BcThqgcfQ
AI & the Rapidly Escalating Threat from Deep Fake Videos
Episode 29 - https://youtu.be/zvOHRMmJNB4
AI, Facial Recognition Technology & The Digital Surveillance State
Episode 30 - https://youtu.be/br4ygfEWdk0
AI & Social Media | The Most Destructive AI We’ve Ever Seen?
Episode 31 - https://youtu.be/sOy12ii8zwM
The Democratization of AI & The 2021 Maiflower Expedition | Plymouth, England to Plymouth, MA
Episode 32 - https://youtu.be/bixdLL74reE
Sino-American Cold War | A Blessing in Disguise for America?
Episode 33 - https://youtu.be/tTRm312DgMc
AI & the Tyranny of Meritocracy
Episode 34 - https://youtu.be/FpPzC5VP6GM
In the Midst of Chaos and Pandemic | A Big AI Announcement From the Trump Administration
Episode 35 - https://youtu.be/bK3xCBwrG8w
Artificial Super Intelligence – Can We Control It?
Episode 36 - https://youtu.be/Rc60DQ0L86Q
A New America | Hope with a Big Dose of Caution
Episode 37 - https://youtu.be/UBenYYHbYqM
Will AI [Science & Tech] Benefit From a New Cold War with China?
Episode 38 - https://youtu.be/JewJnPywnOU
Will AI Eventually Replace All Other Forms of Government?
Episode 39 - https://youtu.be/ibuJ8vozyqg
Will AI Perpetuate Bias in Employment, Health Systems, Law and Society?
Episode 40 - https://youtu.be/IJYbPfGC-08
AI | Will it be the Bain of Cyber Criminals?
Episode 41 - https://youtu.be/ozrO5_XTYKQ
AI | What Will it Mean for the Future of Work?
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