Two biases relevant to expected AI scenarios

My aim in this essay is to briefly review two plausible biases in relation to our expectations of future AI scenarios. In particular, these are biases that I think risk increasing our estimates of the probability of a local, so-called FOOM takeoff.

An important point to clarify from the outset is that these biases, if indeed real, do not in themselves represent reasons to simply dismiss FOOM scenarios. It would clearly be a mistake to think so. But they do, I submit, constitute reasons to be ...