COVID Extrapolations: As of 2020-11-19

UPDATE: For 2020-11-19: Now headed for 3000 deaths per day average for the week ending December 10. We have so screwed ourselves:

It gives me no pleasure that my simple national model of coronavirus cases���project cases back three weeks from deaths, and then extrapolate case growth out from confirmed case growth and from the number of cases per test���is running dead-on:

I forecast a week ago that we would have 6641 deaths in the seven days ending Th 2020-11-05.
We had 6805 deaths.
The model is now predicting that we will see 12893 deaths in the seven days ending on Thanksgiving: Th 2020-11-26.
And if our current inferred last-three-weeks R=1.24 were to continue, we would have 3,671,728 new cases in the seven days ending on Thanksgiving.

https://www.icloud.com/keynote/0bCYYctIKV9_4ICVqtSe5qItQ

.#covid #forecasting #2020-11-19

https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/11/covid-extrapolations-as-of-2020-11-06.html

https://www.typepad.com/site/blogs/6a00e551f08003883400e551f080068834/post/6a00e551f080038834026be4214e3b200d/edit