Science and Prescience

WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES On June 17, 2020, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)   had recorded 120,730 deaths from COVID-19 in the U. S and projected we would surpass 200,000 deaths by October first.  Were they right?  Let's check.  On October 1, 2020 the actual number of deaths was 206,733.  Hmmmm.  How could they be so accurate?  Did they use a crystal ball?

A recent NY Times article cites a study by Stanford University to quantify the mortality fallout of death by Corona as a result of 18 of Trump's pandemically- inappropriate rallies between June and September.  Their results:  more than 30,000 infections and 700 deaths.  They used data, statistics, and mathematical models to estimate what close encounters by the unmasked could generate.  

Wanna know how many dead Americans are projected to die between the election and Inauguration Day if we continue on our current path? Using that amazing graph the answer is: 140,817. If we relax the COVID restrictions ala the Trump rallies, the projection is that 211,122 COVID deaths arrive by January 20.  Now suppose we were all mandated to wear masks and 90% of us complied,  COVID will still rage but the number decreases.  We're projected to lose 89,588.  Again, doing the math( with the help of my trusty technology-invented calculator), a mask mandate  will save the lives of 51,229 of our fellow citizens in that time period.  

This is why data and analysis and models are crucial.  They are guidelines for the future.  The path they predict are only as good as the accuracy of the numbers plugged in.   Tests give us the numbers.  Tracing estimates exposure to those who test positive.  And we have proven methods for counting  the numbers of hospitalizations and people on ventilators and hospital deaths.  These are data we can trust.  

So it doesn't matter if you don't believe in science.  You're gonna find out eventually.  If you live long enough.