COVID Extrapolations: As of 2020-11-06

It gives me no pleasure that my simple national model of coronavirus cases���project cases back three weeks from deaths, and then extrapolate case growth out from confirmed case growth and from the number of cases per test���is running dead-on:

I forecast a week ago that we would have 6641 deaths in the seven days ending Th 2020-11-05.
We had 6805 deaths.
The model is now predicting that we will see 12893 deaths in the seven days ending on Thanksgiving: Th 2020-11-26.
And if our current inferred last-three-weeks R=1.24 were to continue, we would have 3,671,728 new cases in the seven days ending on Thanksgiving.

https://www.icloud.com/keynote/0bCYYctIKV9_4ICVqtSe5qItQ

.#covid #forecasting #2020-11-06