The Race so Far
I saw earlier this week that #TrumpLandslide2020 was trending on Twitter. I hope that is just tribal cheerleading, similar to rooting for one’s football team. Trump could still win, but him winning in a landslide is the least likely option on the roulette wheel of 2020.
Biden holds a significant lead in national polling, and he consistently leads in most of the swing states. One prognosticator I saw rated Biden’s chances at 86%. In 2016, undecided voters broke for Trump in large numbers. That does not appear to be happening this year.
The Senate Republicans don’t believe Trump will win. That’s the whole point of rushing Amy Coney Barrett through confirmation. If they were confident of a Trump victory, they could take their time and still put her on the bench. They think he will lose, and they fear that he’s taking them down with him, so they must act right now.
Trump’s base seems solid, but even there the President is bleeding supporters. Older voters in particular are going over to Biden. They may have been uncomfortable voting for a woman to be President, but they also know what leadership looks like. Now they know Trump isn’t it.
Meanwhile, around 2 million young people have become eligible and have registered to vote. They are overwhelmingly progressive in their politics. To them, Biden may seem too conservative. I’m hoping they turn out and vote for him anyway.
The debates have not helped Trump close his gap with Biden. He went for the knock-out in the first debate and failed. His poll numbers worsened afterwards. Yet, he can’t stand there and talk policy with Biden for ninety minutes, either. That would play to Biden’s strength. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump cancelled the last debate and did a rally instead.
Trump may be hoping for an October surprise, like the one Jim Comey provided in 2016. The recent New York Post story didn’t do the trick. The major news sources didn’t pick it up, except to say they thought it was suspicious or even Russian propaganda.
Trump is also running out of time. People are already voting. My wife and I voted last weekend and dropped our ballots in an official election drop box. Thanks to Ballottrax, I can say with confidence that our ballots were received and accepted, and they will be counted.
I worry what will happen if Trump pulls out another Electoral College victory while losing the popular vote again, this time by an even larger number. There will be protests in the street if that happens again.
I also worry about if Biden wins, how Trump and his supporters will react. Trump will fight any loss in court, even if the loss is significant. A narrow victory for Biden will leave some doubt in people’s minds that Trump can exploit, whereas if Biden wins big, Trump’s complaining will seem like sour grapes. But what about the people who truly believe Trump will win in a landslide? What will they do if he doesn’t?
Biden holds a significant lead in national polling, and he consistently leads in most of the swing states. One prognosticator I saw rated Biden’s chances at 86%. In 2016, undecided voters broke for Trump in large numbers. That does not appear to be happening this year.
The Senate Republicans don’t believe Trump will win. That’s the whole point of rushing Amy Coney Barrett through confirmation. If they were confident of a Trump victory, they could take their time and still put her on the bench. They think he will lose, and they fear that he’s taking them down with him, so they must act right now.
Trump’s base seems solid, but even there the President is bleeding supporters. Older voters in particular are going over to Biden. They may have been uncomfortable voting for a woman to be President, but they also know what leadership looks like. Now they know Trump isn’t it.
Meanwhile, around 2 million young people have become eligible and have registered to vote. They are overwhelmingly progressive in their politics. To them, Biden may seem too conservative. I’m hoping they turn out and vote for him anyway.
The debates have not helped Trump close his gap with Biden. He went for the knock-out in the first debate and failed. His poll numbers worsened afterwards. Yet, he can’t stand there and talk policy with Biden for ninety minutes, either. That would play to Biden’s strength. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump cancelled the last debate and did a rally instead.
Trump may be hoping for an October surprise, like the one Jim Comey provided in 2016. The recent New York Post story didn’t do the trick. The major news sources didn’t pick it up, except to say they thought it was suspicious or even Russian propaganda.
Trump is also running out of time. People are already voting. My wife and I voted last weekend and dropped our ballots in an official election drop box. Thanks to Ballottrax, I can say with confidence that our ballots were received and accepted, and they will be counted.
I worry what will happen if Trump pulls out another Electoral College victory while losing the popular vote again, this time by an even larger number. There will be protests in the street if that happens again.
I also worry about if Biden wins, how Trump and his supporters will react. Trump will fight any loss in court, even if the loss is significant. A narrow victory for Biden will leave some doubt in people’s minds that Trump can exploit, whereas if Biden wins big, Trump’s complaining will seem like sour grapes. But what about the people who truly believe Trump will win in a landslide? What will they do if he doesn’t?
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