Omniscience is Not Enough

I’ve repeatedly debated with Tyler Cowen about the epistemic value of betting.  Long before I amassed my 21-bet winning streak, I’ve argued that betting about substantive intellectual questions does all of the following:

1. Greatly improves the quality of our thinking by converting vague, ambiguous language into clear, specific claims.

2. Greatly improves the quality of discourse by incentivizing the rationally ignorant and rationally irrational to mute themselves.

3. In the long-run, creates tr...