Highly Unlikely
(excerpt from Lenses, a book-length collection of essays, looking for a publisher)
Chains of events that influenced my life and led me to become who I am were highly unlikely - one coincidence happening after another. If any event in the chain had not unfolded just the way it did, everything would have turned out differently.
If you ever fell in love, think about the events leading up to that moment. After the fact, the events feel inevitable. It is difficult to imagine how your life could have gone if those events had not occurred when and how they did. All the pieces fell into place miraculously.
The apparent likeliness of events depends on your perspective when recalling them. You know all the details related to coincidences that have affected the course of your own life. And the more you know about an event, the more unique it seems to you. Those same events when seen by someone else and considered separately, rather than in sequence, are subject to the laws of probability and seem ordinary and expected.
Every time you toss a coin, the probability of heads is 50%, regardless of the results of previous tosses. But a long chain of events such as heads, heads, tails, heads, tails, tails, tails... defies analysis. Only when you isolate a variable and simplify the context with a generalized perspective do the laws of probability apply.
According to Bernoulli's Law, one of the basic principles of probability, it is possible to predict with great accuracy the average outcome of many similar events, but it is impossible to predict, with certainty, any single event.
In other words, the more you know about a specific event and the chain of circumstances that led to it, the more unique and miraculous that event appears.
Known in detail, all events are highly unlikely, the result of multiple chains of coincidence.
Every moment of every life is unique and miraculous.
Chains of events that influenced my life and led me to become who I am were highly unlikely - one coincidence happening after another. If any event in the chain had not unfolded just the way it did, everything would have turned out differently.
If you ever fell in love, think about the events leading up to that moment. After the fact, the events feel inevitable. It is difficult to imagine how your life could have gone if those events had not occurred when and how they did. All the pieces fell into place miraculously.
The apparent likeliness of events depends on your perspective when recalling them. You know all the details related to coincidences that have affected the course of your own life. And the more you know about an event, the more unique it seems to you. Those same events when seen by someone else and considered separately, rather than in sequence, are subject to the laws of probability and seem ordinary and expected.
Every time you toss a coin, the probability of heads is 50%, regardless of the results of previous tosses. But a long chain of events such as heads, heads, tails, heads, tails, tails, tails... defies analysis. Only when you isolate a variable and simplify the context with a generalized perspective do the laws of probability apply.
According to Bernoulli's Law, one of the basic principles of probability, it is possible to predict with great accuracy the average outcome of many similar events, but it is impossible to predict, with certainty, any single event.
In other words, the more you know about a specific event and the chain of circumstances that led to it, the more unique and miraculous that event appears.
Known in detail, all events are highly unlikely, the result of multiple chains of coincidence.
Every moment of every life is unique and miraculous.
Published on May 12, 2020 18:07
No comments have been added yet.
Richard Seltzer
Here I post thoughts, memories, stories, essays, jokes -- anything that strikes my fancy. This meant to be idiosyncratic and fun. I welcome feedback and suggestions. seltzer@seltzerbooks.com
For more o Here I post thoughts, memories, stories, essays, jokes -- anything that strikes my fancy. This meant to be idiosyncratic and fun. I welcome feedback and suggestions. seltzer@seltzerbooks.com
For more of the same, please see my website seltzerbooks.com ...more
For more o Here I post thoughts, memories, stories, essays, jokes -- anything that strikes my fancy. This meant to be idiosyncratic and fun. I welcome feedback and suggestions. seltzer@seltzerbooks.com
For more of the same, please see my website seltzerbooks.com ...more
- Richard Seltzer's profile
- 132 followers
