Note to Self: Why Do We Know So Little About Coronavirus?

Note to Self: If the mortality rate on true cases is 1% and if it takes two weeks from testing to death then, as the U.S. tested and confirmed cases in March, the U.S. 4/5 of the way through March was catching only one in fifteen cases:

https://delong.typepad.com/files/coronavirus-extrapolations.pdf

That would suggest that currently something like 10 million people in America have or had the disease, and that some 500,000 a day are getting it.

If the share of deaths among those whom the virus brushes past close enough that they develop at least temporary immunity���which is the number we really wish we knew���is not 1% but 0.3%, than those csae numbers are 30 million, and 1.5 million a day...

#coronavirus #orangehairedbaboons #publichealth #2020-04-18