Yes, This is an Emergency. No, That Doesn’t Justify a $500 Billion Trump/Mnuchin Slush Fund.

(This piece is co-authored with Jared Bernstein and is also posted on his site.)

While the indicators are lagging, the U.S. economy is in a recession that will very likely be extremely deep. Its likely that real GDP falls at double-digit pace in the quarter that begins next month and the unemployment rate more than doubles. If that sounds implausible, history shows that in sharp downturns, the unemployment rate takes the elevator up and the stairs down.

To their credit, after a slow start...