Day 10: 2020 Pandemic. Extreme Scenarios, Good and Bad because Stuff Doesn’t Just Happen
I’m not a glass half full; glass half empty guy. I’m a “what’s in the damn glass?” person.
To understand my psyche, realize I’ve written a survival manual and also two books whose original titles were Shit Doesn’t Just Happen: The Gift of Failure. Because of Amazon rules, I amended Shit to Stuff, but it’s still Shit. The premise of those books is to examine seven great disasters in each one and show how it take seven things going wrong for a disaster to happen—I call them cascade events. And if people are involved, one of them, at least, if not all, involve human error.
There’s a lot
of information out there about projections for the virus. There are actually
people walking around who don’t even know there is a pandemic. Seriously.
Good case:
the virus mutates into something less deadly and peters out. Yeah. We wish.
Happy with that? As we say in da’ Bronx: fuggehdaboutit.
Bad: There
are two ways I’m looking at it: the virus and then the ripple effect on
society. While they are connected, they both have to be planned for.
Right now,
the focus is the virus. Prevention and treatment. Wash hands, social
distancing, lock down. We’ve already bungled it, with states leading the way in
what is an international problem, that at the very least requires a coordinated
federal response here in the States. We don’t have it. Please, if you feel this
is political move on and read someone else. I’m a realist. I’m not going to get
into the reasons for that but it’s what is going on; or rather not going on. This
is a big reason I’m leaning toward worst case.
Worst
casing I’ve seen for COVID-19 is 2.2 million dead in the US. That’s with 40 to
70% infection rate and a mortality rate of 2%. Pretty grim. We’re talking mass
graves; which is what is happening in Iran right now. Washington State has just
banned funerals.
Hospitals
are already getting overwhelmed. Our for-profit healthcare system is going to
get a lot of people killed because the most efficient hospitals are actually
the least prepared for this pandemic because they don’t keep “unnecessary” gear
and equipment on hand based on their operating margins. Gear like masks and
gloves; equipment like ventilators. We’ve got people stepping up and having sewing
groups that are making masks from surgical cloth. Seriously.
Which
brings me to the other aspect: the ripple effect on society. Almost a fifth of
the country just lost their jobs in one week. Let that sink in. Even before
this, 40% of Americans would struggle to come up with $400 for an unexpected
expense. More than half of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Mix those
things together and it stinks and is a powerkeg.
So far
people, overall, are being reasonable. Many communities don’t even feel much of
an effect, especially as we go more rural. There are many who think this is an
urban problem and those out in the country will be fine. Until someone gets
sick and they realize they don’t have a nearby hospital.
Just saw a
tweet that someone stole an 18-wheeler containing toilet paper. Seriously. That’s
just the beginning. During the 1918 Influenza outbreak, there were thieves
sneaking into hospitals and stealing from the sick. People haven’t changed. There
are also those sewing masks. People volunteering to deliver food to those who
can’t get about.
People are
re-watching the move Contagion. When I first saw that, I understood a
lot because, I’d written a pandemic thriller a while ago (every thriller writer
eventually wrote one): Z: Final Countdown. What I thought the movie got
seriously wrong wasn’t the science. It was social reaction. People were way too
fucking calm. They tried showing some of it, but in some areas things are going
to get very hairy, very soon. But there is a logic to it.
I know
everyone is focused on the here and now, but start thinking longer term. I’ll
be posting about that logic in the coming week with ideas on what can be done about
it.
The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide. Which I’ve managed to reload on Amazon and its in Kindle Unlimited.
The Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide (same as above, minus the preparation part in order to be smaller in print)
Once more, the NY Times has dropped its paywall for information about COVID-19, Coronavirus. Click HERE to go to it.
I’m noticing a lot more small circles outside of cities. Remember, testing is still very scarce.
