The Perry Campaign Has Reset and Refocused in South Carolina

Here's what everyone thinks about this year. If Romney sweeps Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina he wins. It is conventional wisdom and conventional wisdom is usually right.

But this year there is an anomaly. The first several rounds of primaries and caucuses are not winner take all, but proportional. In fact, as you can see from the chart below the fold, there is still a long way to go.

That is one reason Perry stayed in after finishing fifth in Iowa and expecting to finish at the bottom in New Hampshire. Not only does South Carolina not care about Iowa and New Hampshire, but they are not really relevant to South Carolina, the first Republican primary in a consistently Republican state.

But the Perry camp knows what go them to this point isn't working.

I'm being told reliably the campaign has gotten the message and has reset its South Carolina operation. Gone are the flashy national ads with the national ad buyer and the national staging. It is very South Carolina focused, hoping to build upward momentum.

That campaign is relying less on national consultants and more on instate players. The campaign ads are focused on local market buys and local market newsmakers. The message is a more tailored message and less erratic than what we saw in Iowa — more about small government and sticking up for South Carolina's conservative fighters in Congress.

If it works, we should see some uptick in polling. The Perry camp made a wise choice to rely more heavily on South Carolina operatives than national consultants. It could be a model moving forward if it works.

In the mean time, the Perry campaign took all of our concerns under advisement and intends to show it can reset, retool, and reboot to victory in South Carolina.

State

Delegates

Portion

Date

Filing

Complete

Iowa caucus

28

1.20%

Jan 3, 2012

-

1.20%

NH Primary

12

0.50%

Jan 10, 2012

past

1.80%

SC Primary

25

1.10%

Jan 21, 2012

past

2.90%

FL Primary

50

2.20%

Jan 31, 2012

past

5.10%

NV Caucus

28

1.20%

Feb 4, 2012

-

6.30%

ME Caucus

24

1.10%

2/4-11/12

-

7.40%

CO Caucus

36

1.60%

Feb 7, 2012

-

9.00%

MN Caucus

40

1.80%

Feb 7, 2012

-

10.70%

AZ Primary

29

1.30%

Feb 28, 2012

Jan 9, 2012

12.00%

MI Primary

30

1.30%

Feb 28, 2012

past

13.30%

WA Caucus

43

1.90%

Mar 3, 2012

-

15.20%

Pre-Super Tuesday

345

15.20%

State

Delegates

Portion

Date

Filing

Complete

AK Caucus

27

1.20%

Mar 6, 2012

-

16.40%

GA Primary

76

3.40%

Mar 6, 2012

past

19.80%

ID Caucus

32

1.40%

Mar 6, 2012

-

21.20%

MA Primary

41

1.80%

Mar 6, 2012

past

23.00%

ND Caucus

28

1.20%

Mar 6, 2012

-

24.20%

OK Primary

43

1.90%

Mar 6, 2012

past

26.10%

TN Primary

58

2.60%

Mar 6, 2012

past

28.70%

TX Primary

155

6.80%

Mar 6, 2012

past

35.60%

VE Primary

17

0.80%

Mar 6, 2012

Jan 9, 2012

36.30%

VA Primary

49

2.20%

Mar 6, 2012

past

38.50%

Vir Islands Caucus

9

0.40%

Mar 6, 2012

-

38.90%

WY Caucus

29

1.30%

Mar 6, 2012

-

40.20%

Super Tuesday

564

24.90%

State

Delegates

Portion

Date

Filing

Complete

KS Caucus

40

1.80%

Mar 10, 2012

-

41.90%

AL Primary

50

2.20%

Mar 13, 2012

Jan 13, 2012

44.10%

Haw Caucus

20

0.90%

Mar 13, 2012

-

45.00%

MS Primary

38

1.70%

Mar 13, 2012

Jan 14, 2012

46.70%

Am Samoa Caucus

9

0.40%

Mar 13, 2012

-

47.10%

Missouri Caucus

52

2.30%

Mar 17, 2012

-

49.40%

Puerto Rico Caucus

23

1.00%

Mar 18, 2012

-

50.40%

IL Primary

69

3.00%

Mar 20, 2012

past

53.40%

LA Primary

45

2.00%

Mar 24, 2012

past

55.40%

DC Primary

19

0.80%

Apr 3, 2012

past

56.30%

MD Primary

37

1.60%

Apr 3, 2012

Jan 11, 2012

57.90%

WI Primary

42

1.90%

Apr 3, 2012

Jan 11, 2012

59.80%

Conn Primary

28

1.20%

Apr 24, 2012

Mar 2, 2012

61.00%

DE Primary

17

0.80%

Apr 24, 2012

Feb 24, 2012

61.70%

NY Primary

95

4.20%

Apr 24, 2012

Feb 9, 2012

65.90%

PA Primary

72

3.20%

Apr 24, 2012

Feb 14, 2012

69.10%

RI Primary

19

0.80%

Apr 24, 2012

Jan 21, 2012

70.00%

IN Primary

46

2.00%

May 8, 2012

Feb 10, 2012

72.00%

NC Primary

55

2.40%

May 8, 2012

Feb 29, 2012

74.40%

WV Primary

31

1.40%

May 8, 2012

Jan 28, 2012

75.80%

NE Primary

34

1.50%

May 15, 2012

Mar 7, 2012

77.30%

OR Primary

28

1.20%

May 15, 2012

Mar 6, 2012

78.50%

Ark Primary

36

1.60%

May 22, 2012

Mar 1, 2012

80.10%

KY Primary

45

2.00%

May 22, 2012

Jan 31, 2012

82.10%

CA Primary

172

7.60%

Jun 5, 2012

Mar 23, 2012

89.70%

MT Primary

26

1.10%

Jun 5, 2012

Mar 12, 2012

90.90%

NJ Primary

50

2.20%

Jun 5, 2012

Apr 2, 2012

93.10%

NM Primary

23

1.00%

Jun 5, 2012

Mar 16, 2012

94.10%

SD Primary

28

1.20%

Jun 5, 2012

Mar 27, 2012

95.30%

OH Primary

66

2.90%

Jun 12, 2012

Mar 14, 2012

98.20%

UT Primary

40

1.80%

Jun 26, 2012

Mar 15, 2012

100.00%

Post-Super Tuesday

1355

59.80%

Total Delegates

2264

100.00%