The Democrats

In case  you haven't heard there's a primary going on. I have a couple friends who seem pretty iffy on Sanders winning. In that they think the old man socialist is going to lose the general and lose it big. Of course, I expect some on the right to just play troll, but this is coming from those not on the right, so it's worth looking into IMO.  Many people will look to Reagan and Nixon defeats of left types as indicative of what could happen, but the best one is Corbyn and his recent loss to conservatives. 

But it really is all up in the air. Will there be a recession (that might win it alone)? Will something else major happen? We don't know. 
Looking at head to heads and it seems that Bernie does well (so does Biden, though we saw how he collapsed). But then I wondered about Hillary.  As you can see, there's a point about a year before the election when people start to pay attention (or move to their tribes) and it would seem, for the most part, Hillary kept a 3-4% lead all the way through. There are some spikes here and there (GOP convention, but what else?) for Trump but in the end he won in the states that mattered despite the 3-4% popular vote loss.

And with Bernie you see the same thing: A point where people realize the election is close and so the race becomes closer (whatever's going through those people's mind, I would like to know, how does it spike from a 10point loss to 4?

What does this mean? I don't think we know. Ground game is important and so are other, out of our hands powers (major natural disasters, recessions, etc). We'll have to see what happens. Your thoughts?
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