Predictions for 2012

And here are a few thoughts on what we might see in the coming year...




1. EPUB 3 will fail to heal the digital format fracture

As much as authors and publishers would love to see a standard one-size-fits-all ebook format, that's just never gonna happen, because the business interests of ebook retailers can overrule it via proprietary e-readers. Even ePub based fixed-layout books are already fractured into multiple formats with their own unique specifics, and that trend will continue for a good long while so long as Apple, Amazon and B&N hold the cards. The high ideal of a single universal standard for all ebooks is unrealistic, if only because it is simply too constraining for the pace of today's artistic exploration. By the time EPUB3 is fully integrated into the next generation e-readers, technical advances will have rendered it outdated. The pace of universal adoption is just too slow to keep up with individual discovery and invention. My prediction is that the ebook market will fragment even further as the power players move to consolidate their hold on their segment of the market and others move in to claim their share.





2. The Kindle 5 will have a color Mirasol/eInk screen




The Kindle 4/Touch will be the last black and white eInk reader we'll see from Amazon. Color reflective technology is good enough now to be acceptable to ebook readers, both in terms of speed and image quality...or at least it will be by the end of 2012 when the next Kindle line is due. Grayscale screens are the black and white televisions of today, and they'll all be junk tomorrow (or at least by next year anyway, since a lot of people tend to keep their old TVs around awhile). Consequently, there will be a smaller lineup of models next time, with a low-end color touchscreen reader and a mid-ground Fire 2 update. Buttons will be gone for good (and good riddance to them, too).




3. 10" Kindle Tablet will debut at $399




Amazon will also introduce a new high-end full size tablet this year to compete directly with the iPad. The Kindle Fire is a nice mid-size sedan, but the iPad is a Hummer. With a growing app store and a full complement of multimedia content, the color Kindle Fire just cries out for more legroom. It's a nice one-handed reading device and suited better to small kid's hands for games and movies, but it's just too small to do much else with comfortably for any length of time. In addition to which, illustrated books and magazines demand a larger screen to fully appreciate and enjoy, and since Amazon is first and foremost a book retailer, they would be remiss in addressing this segment of their market. The price point is a reasonable guess as a competitive price that's low enough to be a good deal and high enough to be conceivable.




4. Publishers will come on board for library lending




The public is just too demanding to ignore, and they want to borrow ebooks plain and simple. Being able to gift or resell your used ebooks is still a few years off so I'll reserve those predictions for another day, but library lending is an issue that needs to be dealt with now. 2011 was a watershed year for libraries as they finally came to grips with the changing landscape and began to confront the many problems it presents. But publishers have not been helping and so their hands are tied. But as print becomes less cost effective publishers will begin to see the light. Why print an expensive hardcover for a few thousand libraries when a digital file beamed out will cost you almost nothing and net you just as much? Libraries don't get ebook licenses for free, so it's just a matter of time before the major trades realize they're sitting on a cash cow here. Surveys show consistently that readers increase consumption as access becomes easier. More loans = more licenses = more good word of mouth from happy readers = more potential sales. It's really not a hard equation.




5. Ebook prices will increase, stabilizing into three price ranges




As print book sales decline ebooks will simply have to fill the void, so ebook prices will go up. More and more of the overall production costs (i.e. editorial, layout, marketing, etc.) will be laid on the shoulders of the digital editions, making their effective costs increase. Ultimately ebooks must pull their weight and pay their fair share. But those costs are not the same for every title or publisher across the board, so they will fall into three main categories and be priced accordingly:


.99 / $2.99 - These are your self-pubs and independents looking to gain entry and build or maintain their following, as well as daily specials and discount backlist titles and classics
$7.99 / $9.99 - Mid-list authors and backlist titles by top authors, as well as a handful of the top selling independents; successful self-pubs will start to move up into this category
$12.99 / $14.99 - Bestselling titles by top authors and new releases by trade pubs, as well as major author catalog and new enhanced ebooks


There will still be ebooks listed at every other imaginable price - particularly in the $4.99-$5.99 range for overzealous self-pubs - but few of these will sell more than a handful. The major trades just can't afford to go much lower than $7.99 and hope to support their massive infrastructure, and they don't want to drop new titles below ten bucks. But readers have shown they won't buy books much over that by anyone but the top draws, so eventually $12.99 will become the go-to price for new releases, with mid-list coming in just under ten. It may take another year for this to solidify, but that's the direction it will be heading in due time.





6. A self-pubbed author will reach the N.Y.T. Top 10 with a $9.99+ title




While several self-published authors have achieved Top 10 status this year (on one list or another), they have mainly been for bottom-tier price point titles, with a few $4.99 or so oddities thrown in. Nearly all top selling self-pubbed titles go for .99 cents, with a reasonable amount at $2.99. But for the first time a self-pubbed author will climb the list on the back on a top tier price this year, and I'm not talking about someone who's jumped ship from traditional publishing to go it alone on the strength of their name - I'm talking about a full-fledged independent up-by-the-bootstraps kind of author who did all the work themselves and has not yet been successful. And it may well be someone who's all but unknown today.




These are just some thoughts on the direction things are going. Most of them are certain to be horribly off their mark, as the target just keeps moving, bringing an endless stream of surprises. But then, that's what makes predictions so fun. If they were certainties, this would be a news report instead.