AN UPDATE ON THE MIDDLE EAST
THE EXPERIENCE OF LIVING IN LEBANN DURINGS ITS CIVIL WAR HAS NOT ONLY DEFINED MY LIFE, IT HAS MOTIVATED ME TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE CAUSES AND DESTRUCTIVE EFFECTS OF CONFLICT ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST. LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT CURRENT EVENTS.
NOTHING HAS CHANGED FOR THE PALESTINIANS UNDER ISRAEL’S APARTHEID STATE. DESPITE AN ELECTION ON SEPTEMBER 17TH, A NEW ISRAELI GOVERNMENT HAS YET TO BE FORMED. IN THE RUN UP TO HIS LAST RE-ELECTION BID, AND ASSUMING IT WOULD CLINCH HIS ELECTION, NETANYAHU DID EVERYTHING IN HIS POWER TO CREATE HAVOC, FROM SENDING A CHEMICALLY LADEN DRONE INTO LEBANON THAT EXPLODED IN THE DENSLY POPULATD NEIGHBORHOOD OF DAHIYAH, THE STRONGHOLD OF HEZBOLLAH, TO ORDERING HIS AIRFORCE ON MULTIPLE OCCASIONS TO TARGET SO-CALLED CONVOYS JUST OUTSIDE DAMASCUS WHICH HE CLAIMED WERE DELIVERING ARMS TO HEZBOLLAH.
AS OF THIS DATE, NETANYAHU HAS BEEN UNABLE TO FORM A GOVERNMENT AND HAS ASKED HIS RIVAL, BENNY GANTZ TO TRY. IF ISRAEL’S PRESIDENT, AS WOULD BE HIS RIGHT, WERE TO ASK A THIRD PARTY TO TRY TO FORM A GOVERNMENT, NETANYAHU WOULD NO LONGER BE AFFORDED PROTECTION AS AN ELECTED OFFICIAL AND COULD FINALLY BE TRIED ON MULTIPLE COUNTS OF BRIBERY.
THOSE PALESTINIANS WHO LIVE IN EAST JERUSALAM AND THE WEST BANK STILL LIVE UNDER A HARSH, MILITARY OCCUPATION THANKS TO AN ISRAELI-OCCUPIED US CONGRESS AND OVAL OFFICE, BOTH OF WHICH ALLOW ISRAEL’S ACTIONS TO GO UNPUNISHED. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THE TRUMP/KUSHNER PEACE PLAN WILL AFFECT THE 2 MILLION GAZANS LVING IN AN OPEN-AIR PRISON. PROPOSALS INCLUDE PUSHING THE GAZANS INTO THE SINAI AND TRANSFERING THOSE PALESTINIANS IN THE WEST BANK INTO GAZA WHICH, ACCORDING TO THE UN, IS MONTHS AWAY FROM BECOMING UNINHABITABLE.
AS TO THE RECENT ELECTION RESULTS IN ISRAEL, IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO ASSUME THAT THE POLITICAL DEADLOCK, BETWEEN WITH NETANYAHU AND HIS RIVAL BENNY GANZ, WAS EVIDENCE OF A DEEP IDEOLOGICAL DIVIDE.
IN POLITICAL TERMS, NOTHING DIVIDES THE ISRAELIS. IN THE SEPTEMBER ELECTION, 90% OF ISRAELI JEWS VOTED FOR PARTIES THAT IDENTIFIED AS BEING EITHER ON THE MILITARISTIC, ANTI-ARAB RIGHT OR ON THE RELIGIOUS, ANTI-ARAB FAR-RIGHT. ALL PARTIES SUPPORT THE ENTRENCHMENT OF THE OCCUPATION AND ANNEXATION OF PARTS OF THE WEST BANK; ALL THREE THINK THE SETTLEMENTS ARE JUSTIFIED AND NECESSARY; ALL DEMAND THAT THE SIEGE OF GAZA CONTINUE; AND ALL WANT NEIGHBORING ARAB STATES COWERING IN FEAR. IF NETANYAHU MANAGES TO CLING TO POWER, HIS FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS WILL BE TO DISMISS THE ATTORNEY GENERALWHO WANTS TO TRY HIM ON THREE COUNTS OF BRIBERY. WASHINGTON, IT SEEMS, IS NOT THE ONLY SWAMP.
LET’S TAKE A BRIEF LOOK AT LYBIA:
IN 1969 GADDAFI INHERITED ONE OF THE POOREST NATIONS IN AFRICA. BEFORE HE WAS BRUTALLY MURDERED, HE HAD TURNED LIBYA INTO AFRICA’S WEALTHIEST COUNTRY. IT HAD THE HIGHEST GDP PER CAPITA. LIBYANS ATTENDED COLLEGE FOR FREE. THEY HAD ACCESS TO FREE MEDICAL CARE. THE WESTERN BACKED NATO ATTACK OF 2011 TURNED LIBYA INTO A FAILED STATE. PRESIDENT OBAMA ADMITTED THAT THE ATTACK ON LIBYA WAS HIS WORST MISTAKE AS PRESIDENT, AND FOR GOOD REASON. THE WEST’S OBJECTIVE WAS TO OUST GADDAFI, INSTALL A PUPPET REGIME AND GAIN CONTROL OF LIBYA’S NATURAL RESOURCES. FOR THE US, IT WAS THE BOOMING ARMS MARKET. LIBYA IS NOW A BONANZ FOR AMERICAN ARMS DEALERS AND HOME TO THE WORLD’S LARGEST ARMS CACHE. FOR ITALY, IT WAS OIL AND GAS, AND FOR FRANCE IT WAS WATER, A COMMODITY WHICH PROMISES TO BE TO THE 21ST CENTURY WHAT OIL WAS TO THE 20TH. GOING FORWARD, WATER WILL BE THE PRECIOUS COMMODITY THAT DETERMINES THE WEALTH AND FATE OF NATIONS. ALREADY FRANCE’S GLOBAL MEGA-WATER CORPORATIONS CONTROL MORE THAN 45 % OF THE PLANET’S WATER MARKET, A $400 BILLION GLOBAL INDUSTRY.
LIBYA SITS ON THE NUBIAN SANDSTONE AQUIFER WHICH IS THE WORLD’S LARGEST UNDERGROUND SOURCE OF FRESH WATER. THIS FOSSIL WATER AQUIFER SYSTEM WAS FORMED APPROXIMATELY 20,000 YEARS AGO AND CONTAINS 150,000 CUBIC KILOMETERS OF FRESH WATER. GADDAFI MAY HAVE BEEN EXCENTRIC, BUT HE WAS A VISIONARY. HE INVESTED $25 MILLION IN THE GREAT MAN-MADE RIVER PROJECT, A COMPLEX 4,000- KILOMETER LONG WATER PIPELINE BURIED BENIETH THE DESERT THAT COULD TRANSPORT TWO MILLION CUBIC METERS OF WATER PER DAY. SUCH A MOMUMENTAL WATER DISTRIBUTION SCHEME WAS ON COURSE TO TURN LIBYA, A NATION THAT WAS 95% DESERT, INTO A SELF-SUSTAINABLE, ARABLE OASIS. NATO PURPOSELY BOMBED KEY STATE OWNED WATER INSTALLATIONS, INCLUDING A WATER PIPE FACTORY IN BREGA, AND AS A RESULT, SOME FOUR MILLION LIBYANS DON’T HAVE ACCESS TO SAFE DRINKING WATER.
LET’S TURN TO SYRIA NOW: OVER THE LAST 70 YEARS, THE CIA HAS ATTEMPTED, AND OFTEN SUCCEEDED, IN OVERTHROWING GOVERNMENTS IN SYRIA. AT FIRST IT WAS AN EXPERIMENT IN ORIENTALISM, TRYING TO IMPOSE A DEMOCRATIZING INFLUENCE IN A NEW ARAB COUNTRY. WHEN THAT DIDN’T SUCCEED, IT WAS SYRIA’S REFUSAL TO ALLOW A SAUDI PIPELINE THROUGH ITS COUNTRY. THEN CAME THE FEAR THAT SYRIA WOULD BECOME A SOVIET SATELLITE STATE UNTIL FINALLY IT WAS SHIITE IRAN, ENEMY OF THE MAJORITY SUNNI STATES, EXERTING TOO MUCH INFLUENCE OVER SYRIA, AND BY EXTENSION, HEZBOLLAH IN LEBANON.
US TROOPS ARE STILL ON THE GROUND IN THE OIL RICH NORTHEASTERN REGION OF SYRIA. THIS WAR OF CHOICE, WHICH BEGAN IN MARCH OF 2011, HAS COST OVER HALF A MILLION LIVES AND LEFT TENS OF THOUSANDS DISPLACED, WITH BASHAR ASSAD MORE SECURE IN POWER THAN EVER BEFORE. I SAY WAR OF CHOICE BECAUSE IT WAS, IN LARGE PART, NETANYAHU’S OBSESSION WITH IRAN, THAT TRIGGERED THIS LATEST REGIME CHANGE SCHEME. THE THINKING WENT SOMETHING LIKE THIS: TAKE OUT SYRIA, THE LINCHPEN BETWEEN IRAN AND HEZBLLAH, AND YOU WEAKEN THE CHAIN. THE RESULT: CLOSE TO HALF A MILLION DEATHS AND THE DESTRUCTION OF LARGE SWATHS OF SYRIA ALL BECAUSE NETANYAHU CLAIMED IRAN WAS A THREAT TO ISRAEL, EVEN THOUGH HIS TOP INTELLIGENCE AND MILITARY PROFESSIONALS INSISTED THE CONTRARY.
IT WAS THE RUSSIANS, LONG-TIME ALLIES OF THE ASSAD FAMILY, WHO RECENTLY BROKERED A DEAL BETWEEN THE TURKS AND THE SYRIAN KURDS GRAHICALLY SPELLING OUT THE SLOW BUT SURE RESTORATION OF SYRIA’S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY. MEANTIME, THE IDEA THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP THOUGHT HE COULD SEND IN HIS TANKS TO “PROTECT” SYRIAN OIL FIELDS IS PREPOSTEROUS. THIS WOULD BE ILLEGAL, BY AN POSSIBLE INTERPRETATION OF INTERNATIONAL LAW, AS IS THE PRESSENCE OF US TROOPS IN SYRIA WHO WERE NEVER INVITED IN BY THE GOVERNMENT IN DAMASCUS. WHILE THE OIL FIELDS IN EASTERN SYRIA WILL NOT BE PRODUCING MORE THAN 60,000 BARRELS A DAY, ONCE UP AND OPERATIONAL, THAT LEVEL OF PRODUCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DAMASCUS AND THE SYRIAN PEOPLE, THE LEGITIMATE OWNERS OF THE OIL.
AFTER 18 YEARS OF WAR IN AFGHANISTAN, THE TALIBAN CONTROLS MORE OF THE COUNTRY THAN IT DID WHEN THE US INVADED IN 2001. A PROMINENT AFGHAN DIPLOMAT NOW SERVING AS HER COUNTRY’S AMBASSADOR TO NORWAY HAD THIS TO SAY ABOUT THE TALIBAN: “THEY ARE SO OVER THIS WAR. THEY JUST WANT TO GO HOME, BUT YOU AMERICANS WON’T LET THEM.” ACCORDING TO HER, THE TALIBAN ARE NOT AN INVADING ARMY. THEY ARE AFGHAN CITIZENS, DISTINGUISHED FROM THEIR COUNTRYMEN CHIEFLY BY THEIR EXTREME RELIGIOUS CONSERVATISM AND PUNITIVE APPROACH TO GOVERNMENT. THINK OF THEM,” SHE SAID, “AS THE AFGHAN EQUIVALENT OF YOUR OWN EVANGELICAL RIGHT-WING REPUBLICANS.” THE TALIBAN, SJE CONTINUED, ARE IN ALMOST EVERY TOWN. AND THE MORE YOU RILE THEM UP, THE MEANER THEY GET AND THE MORE FOLLOWERS THEY GAIN. BUT IN TIMES OF PEACE, SOMETHING AFGHANISTAN HAS NOT KNOWN FOR 40 YEARS, MANY TALIBAN WOULD RETURN TO BEING FARMERS, SHOPKEEPERS, VILLAGERS LIKE THEIR FATHERS BEFORE THEM.
THERE ARE TWO REASONS THIS IS UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN.
US ARMS DEALERS WOULD BE IN AN UPROAR IF TRUMP PULLED OUR TROOPS OUT. ENDLESS WARS ARE A BONANZA FOR GUARANTEED ARMS SALES. THE OTHER PROBLEM: PRESIDENTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PUT GENERALS IN THE OVAL OFFICE, AND GENERALS DO WHAT GENERALS DO, THEY MAKE MORE WARS. HOPEFULLY FOR THE AFGHANS, PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL KEEP HIS PROMISE AND BRING OUR TROOPS HOME FROM BY 2020.
BETWEEN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ, THE US HAS SPENT OVER $2.7 TRILLION OF OUR TAX DOLLARS.
IRAQI, ONCE A HIGHLY DEVELOPED COUNTRY WITH A WELL-EDUCATED, SKILLED POPULATION IS NOW A FRATURED COUNTRY. PATRICK COCKBURN, THE IRISH JOURNALIST WHO HAS BEEN THE MIDDLE EAST CORRESPONDENT FOR BOTH THE INDEPENDENT AND THE FINANCIAL TIMES SINCE 1979, REPORTED ON SEPTEMBER 30TH THAT ISRAELI DRONES WERE LAUNCHED FROM A US BASE IN KURDISH-CONTROLLED NOTHEAST SYRIA INTO IRAQ. THIS HAS LED THE IRAQ GOVERNMENT TO PASS A BILL DEMANDING THE WITHDRAWAL OF US FORCES FROM ITS COUNTRY.
PRESIDENT TRUMP RECENTLY ANNOUNCED HE WOULD SEND THOSE TROOPS LEAVING SYRIA INTO IRAQ. THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT HAS MADE IT CLEAR THEY DO NOT WELCOME THE US TROOPS AND HAS AGAIN ASKED THE US MILITARY TO LEAVE. WHETHER OR NOT THIS REQUEST WILL BE RESPECTED B Y THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
THE BUSH REGIME THOUGHT IT COULD GET RID OF SADDAM WITHOUT BENEFITING IRAN. THAT DIDN’T HAPPEN. BECAUSE OF A DEEP SEATED ANOMOSITY BETWEEN SUNNIS AND SHIITES, THE DOWNFALL OF SADDAM GAVE RISE TO A SHIA MAJORITY IN IRAQ AND A STRONGER IRAN. GIVEN THAT IRAQ AND IRAN ARE AMONG THE FEW SHIA-LED STATES IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN NO SURPRISE THAT THE SHIA IN IRAQ WOULD FIND COMMON CAUSE WITH THE SHIA OF IRAN.
POST SADDAM IRAQ SAW THE FIRST SHIA ARAB GOVERNMENT TAKE POWER IN THE REGION SINCE SALADIN OVERTHREW THE FATIMIDS IN 12TH CENTURY EGYPT.
US ADMINISTRATIONS HAVE REPEATEDLY MADE THE MISTAKE OF DENOUNCING HEZBOLLAH, THE HOUTHIS IN YEMEN AND THE SHIA MOVEMENT IN IRAQ, AS IRANIAN PROXIES. THIS IS A MISTAKE BECAUSE THESE POWERFUL MILITARY MOVEMENTS ARE ROOTED, ABOVE ALL ELSE, IN THEIR LOCAL SHIA COMMUNITIES. IRAN MAY HAVE FOSTERED THESE GROUPS, BUT IT DOESN’T COMMAND OR CONTROL THEM.
FROM AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE, IRAQ AND IRAN HAVE A TUMULTIOUS HISTORY. THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR OF 1980-88, WHICH COST ONE MILLION LIVES, WAS BUT ANOTHER PHASE IN AN ANCIENT PERSIAN-ARAB CONFLICT FUELED BY 20TH CENTURY BORDER DISPUTES. THE FALL OF THE SHAH IN 1979 AND THE RISE OF IRAN’S NEW REVOLUTIONARY LEADERSHIP THREATENED SADDAM’S DELICATE SUNNI-SHIITE BALANCE. SUPPORTED AND ARMED BY THE US, IRAQ LAUNCHED THE 1980 WAR TO CONSOLIDATE ITS POWER IN THE ARAB WORLD AND CLAIM ITS PLACE AS A DOMINANT PERSIAN GULF STATE. ACCORDING TO SOME IRAN OBSERVERS, THE WAR TAUGHT IRAN THAT WHO GOVERNS BAGHDAD MATTERS, SLATING IRAN TO INTERVENE IN IRAQ FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE SHIITES ARE THE MAJORITY IN IRAQ AT 67%. AND EXPLAINS, IN PART WHY, AFTER THE FALL OF SADDAM HUSSEIN, IRAN BECAME THE POWERHOUSE IT IS TODAY, AND WHY IT IS IN CONFLICT WITH SAUDI ARABIA, A MAJOR SUNNI POWERHOUSE THAT FEELS THREATENED BY IRAN WHOSE POPULATION IS 90% SHIITE. SHIITES BROKE AWAY FROM MAINSTREAM ISLAM IN 661 OVER WHO SHOULD SUCCEED THE PROHPHET MUHAMMAD. IN THE EYES OF THE SUNNI MAJORITY, SHIITES ARE INFIDELS. WORLD-WIDE, THERE ARE APPROXIMATELY 1.4 BILLION MUSLIMS. SUNNIS MAKE UP SOME 87%, AND THE REST ARE SHIITES. ONLY 20% OF MUSLIMS LIVE IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA BUT BETWEEN THE MEDITERRANEAN AND THE GULF THE EQUATION IS 50-50, WHICH GREATLY CONTRIBUTES TO HEIGHTENED TENSIONS, PARTICULARLY TO SUNNIS WHO HAVE, SINCE THE TIME OF THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE, BEEN THE MAJOR POWER. SYRIA IS RULED BY ALAWITES, A SECULAR SECT OF ISLAM AND AN OFFSHOOT OF SHISM THAT ASCRIBES TO ARAB NATIONALISM, A DESIRE FOR ARAB UNITY IN THE FACE OF ANTICOLOLONIAL ETHOS AND WESTERN DOMINANCE EXPERIENCED BY ARAB COUNTRIES IN THE 19TH AND 20TH CENTURIES, AND IT IS ONE OF THE REASONS SYRIA HAS BEEN A CONSTANT THORN IN THE SIDE OF THE US AND ITS QUEST FOR HEGEMONY.
IN THE EARLY DAYS OF THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, HIS GOAL WAS TO BRING IRAN TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE AND ACHIEVE A SUCCESSFUL ARMS-CONTROL AGREEMENT, THUS PREVENTING IRAN FROM OBTAINING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
TRUMP’S ABROGATION OF THE IRAN DEAL HAS REVIVED THE POKER GAME. HIS GOAL IN BREAKING THE NUCLEAR AGREEMENT SIGNED BY THE US, THE UK, RUSSIA, CHINA, FRANCE AND GERMANY WAS TO BATTER IRAN’S ENONOMY WITH SANCTIONS TO THE POINT THAT IRAN’S LEADERS WOULD RENEGOTIATE THE NUCLEAR DEAL ON TERMS THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION DEEMED MORE FAVORABLE TO THE US.
THE LARGER GOAL, WHICH ISRAEL AND THE SUNNI GULF STATES SHARED, WAS THE REALIGNMENT OF THE MIDDLE EAST WITH ISRAEL AND SELECT SUNNI NATIONS REINING SUPREME OVER IRAN. THIS WAS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT VISION THAN THE ONE ADVANCED BY OBAMA, WHO WAS COMMITTED TO PREVENTING IRAN FROM GETTING A NUCLEAR WEAPON, BUT WHO ACCEPTED THE NOTION THAT IRAN COULD BECOME A COUNTERWEIGHT TO SAUDI ARABIA’S INFLUENCE IN THE REGION. OBAMA’S IDEA WAS FOR SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN TO “SHARE THE NEIGHBORHOOD.”
TRUMP’S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE NUCLEAR DEAL HAS REVIVED FEARS NOT JUST THAT THE US COULD START MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN OR QUIETLY BLESS AN ISRAELI STRIKE, BUT THAT ALL PARTIES COULD UNLEASH WIDESPREAD CHAOS.
THE STORY OF HOW THIS SIMMERING CRISIS WITH IRAN BEGAN IS IN MANY WAYS ABOUT THE COMPLEXITIES OF AMERICA’S RELATIONSHIP WITH ISRAEL. IT IS A STORY OF A WAR NARROWLY AVERTED UNTIL NOW, AN IRANIAN ARMS AGREEMENT NEGOTIATEE BEHIND ISRAEL’S BACK, AND A BATTLE OVER WHO ULTIMATELY SHAPES AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY. OBAMA FELT REQUIRED TO NEGOTIATE A NUCLEAR DEAL WITH IRAN AFTER ISRAEL CAME DANGERIOUSLUY CLOSE TO LAUNCHING AN ATTACK ON IRAN IN 2012. SUCH AN ATTACK, WHICH CAME FAR CLOSER TO HAPPENING THAN WAS MADE PUBLIC, WOULD HAVE BEEN A SIGNIFICANT BREACH OF ISRAEL’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE US, OR MORE PRECISELY, WITH THE OBAMA ADMNISTRATION. PRESIDENT OBAMA WAS CONVINCED AN ISRAELI STRIKE WOULD PUSH BACK IRAN’S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS BY A YEAR OR TWO AT MOST, WHEREAS HIS NUCLEAR DEAL DELAYED ANY SUCH PROBLEM BY 10 OR MORE YEARS.
THE FACT THAT TRUMP RECENTLY SUGGESTED HE MIGHT MEET WITH IRAN’S PRESIDENT HAS SENT SHOCK WAVES THROUGH ISRAEL WHICH WORRIES THAT TRUMP, LIKE OBAMA, MIGHT TRY TO AVOID WAR WITH IRAN AND ATTEMPT TO REACH AN AGREEMENT. OBAMA FELT THAT HIS HARD-NOSED DIPLOMACY AND LEADERSHIP HAD UNITED THE WORLD’S MAJOR POWERS AND OFFERED A MORE EFFECTIVE WAY TO VERIFY THAT IRAN WAS NOT PURSUING A NUCLEAR WEAPON. ISRAEL DIDN’T SEE IT THAT WAY. IT ADHERES TO THE BEGIN DOCTRINE, ADOPTED IN 1981 BY THEN PRIME MINISTER BEGIN, WHICH DECLARES THAT THE ISRAELI GOVERNMENT, WHETHER BY PREVENTIVE STRIKE OR COUNTER-PROLIFERATION, SHALL HAMPER ITS ENEMIES’ CAPACITY TO POSSESS WEAPONS OF MASS DESCRUCTION. PUT MORE SUCCINCTLY, NO ONE IN THE REGION, EXCEPT ISRAEL, SHALL EVER BE ALLOWED TO POSSESS NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
SECRETARY OF STATE MIKE POMPEO, AN IRAN HAWK, HAS BECOME THIS ADMINISTRATION’S MOST INFLUENTIAL VOICE ON IRAN AND ISRAEL’S NEW BEST FRIEND. TRUMP’S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE IRAN DEAL HAS BROUGHT THE NUCLEAR STANDOFF FULL CIRCLE. SEVERE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, ANNOUNCED IN APRIL, WITH THE AIM OF DRIVING DOWN IRANIAN OIL EXPORTS, HAS TRIGGERED MONTHS OF TIT-FOR-TAT MEASURES. IN LATE JUNE, TRUMP ORDERED A STAND DOWN HOURS BEFORE US FORCES WERE POISED TO STRIKE IRAN. HIS MORE HAWKISH ALLIES, ISRAEL, UAE AND SAUDI ARABI, WERE VERY DISAPPOINTED.
AND NOW TO YEMEN, WHERE RECENT EVENTS THERE TIE IN WITH BOTH IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA, BUT TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE COMPLEXITIES OF THIS, THE POOREST OF MIDDLE EAST COUNTRIES, I’LL BEGIN WITH ITS HISTORY.
NORTH YEMEN BECAME A REPUBLIC IN 1962, BUT IT WAS NOT UNTIL 1967 THAT THE BRITISH WITHDREW FROM WHAT THEN BECAME SOUTH YEMEN. IN 1970, THE SOUTHERN GOVERNMENT BECAME A COMMUNIST COUNTRY, THE FIRST EVER IN THE MIDDLE EAST. FINALLY, IN MAY 1990, THE TWO COUNTRIES WERE FORMALLY UNITED AS THE REPUBLIC OF YEMEN, ELECTING AS ITS FIRST PRESIDENT ALI ABDALLAH SALAH.
IN 2004, RUMBLES OF UNREST BEGAN OVER PRESIDENT SALAH’S CORRUPTION, HIS HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES, THE RAMPANT POVERTY AND UNEMPLOYMENT. IT WASN’T UNTIL 2011 THAT THINGS REACHED A BOILING POINT WHEN SALAH’S SECURITY FORCES UNLEASHED A BRUTAL ASSAULT ON THE HOUTHI-LED PRO-DEMOCRACY CAMP, KILLING 50 PEOPLE IN SANA, YEMEN’S CAPITAL. UN SANCTIONS FORCED PRESIDENT SALAH TO FLEE TO SAUDI ARABIA, WHERE HE DESIGNATED HIS VICE PRESIDENT HADI TO ASSUME POWER. IN A STRANGE TURN OF EVENTS, WHEN THE HOUTHIS SUCCEEDED IN CAPTURING SANAA, SAHAH TURNED FACE, OPENLY ALLIED WITH THE HOUTHIS AND FORCED HADI TO FLEE THE COUNTRY. SALAH AND THE HOUTHIS FORMED A “POLITICAL COUNCIL” TO GOVERN SANAA AND MUCH OF NORTHERN YEMEN BUT SHORTLY THEREAFTER, SAHAH BROKE WITH THE HOUTHIS AGAIN, ALIGNED HIMSELF WITH THE SAUDIS AND PRESIDENT HADI, AND CALLED ON HIS FOLLOWERS TO TAKE UP ARMS AGAINST THE HOUTHS AT WHICH POINT THE HOUTHIS HAD HIM KILLED. THE CONFLICT ESCALATED DRAMATICALLY WHEN THE SAUDI COALITION BACKED BY THE US, THE UK AND FRANCE BEGAN AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE HOUTHIS, WITH THE AIM OF RESTORING PRESIDENT HADI’S GOVERNMENT.
SINCE THE SAUDI-LED COALITION BEGAN ITS ASSAULT ON YEMEN IN MARCH 2015, 80% OF YEMEN’S POPULATION, ROUGHLY 24 MILLION PEOPLE, ARE IN NEED OF HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE. 10 MILLION ARE A STEP AWAY FROM FAMINE. THE CHARITY SAVE THE CHILDREN ESTIMATS THAT 85,000 CHILDREN DIED BETWEEN APRIL 2015 AND OCTOBER 2018 FROM SEVERE MALNUTRITION.
EVENTS DRAMATICALLY CHANGED IN YEMEN WHEN THE HOUTHIS RECENTLY LAUNCHED DRONES AND MISSILES, ATTACKING AND DESTROYING SAUDI OIL AND REFINING INSTILLATIONS, CAUSING THE LOSS OF 5.7 MILLION BARRELS A DAY, ABOUT 50% OF SAUDI’S OIL OR 5% OF THE WORLD’S DAILY PRODUCTION, THE BIGGEST OIL DISRUPTION IN HISTORY, AND CAUSING THE BIGGEST HIKE IN THE PRICE OF OIL IN A DECADE.
THE SAUDI’S WAR IN YEMEN HAS COST THE SAUDI GOVERNMENT SEVERAL BILLION DOLLARS A MONTH. THIS AT A TIME WHEN THEIR BUDGET DEFICIT HAS INCREASED AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH 7% OF ITS GDP. THE SAUDIS RECENTLY ANNOUNCED PLANS TO SELL A SHARE OF ARAMCO, ITS STATE OIL CONGLOMERATE, AS A WAY TO RAISE MUCH NEED CASH. PRINCE SALMAN OR MBS AS HE IS KNOWN IN THE REGION, HAD HOPED TO RAISE SOME $2.7 TRILLION DOLLARS. IT’S DOUBTFUL NOW THAT ANYONE WILL BUY SHARES OF THE COMPANY WHEN ITS MAJOR INSTALLATIONS ARE NOT SECURE. THE ASSUMPTION NOW IS THAT THE SAUDI PRINCE WILL HAVE TO MAKE PEACE WITH YEMEN BEFORE HE CAN SELL ARAMCO SHARES FOR A DECENT PRICE. HE WILL ALSO HAVE TO DISH OUT BILLIONS IN REPARATION PAYMENTS TO YEMEN AND ITS PEOPLE BEFORE THE HOUTHIS WILL BE WILLING TO MAKE PEACE.
WHILE MIKE POMPEO HAS BEEN QUICK TO PLACE BLAME ON IRAN, HE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO DEFINITIVELY PINPOINT WHERE THE ATTACKS ORIGINATED. INITIALLY, THERE WAS SPECULATION THAT THE ATTACKS ON SAUDI OIL PROCESSING CENTER AND OIL FIELDS WERE LAUNCHED FROM IRAQ.
IF THE DRONES HAD ORIGINATED FROM IRAQ, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN A HUGE EMBARRASSMENT TO THE US MILITARY ARMS INDUSTRY BECAUSE IT WOULD HAVE MEANT THAT THE PATRIOT SYSTEM DIDN’T ACTIVATED, WHICH WOULD HAVE MEANT A COMPLETE FAILURE OF THE SYSTEM.
OR, THE HOUTHIS INSIST THEY LAUNCHED 10 SUICIDE DRONES AND MULTIPLE MISSILES WITH HELP FROM INTELLIGENCE SOURCES INSIDE SAUDI ARABIA. ACCORDING TO LOCAL SOURCES, THIS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. ARAB SHIITES IN THE EASTERN PROVINCE WORKING IN SAUDI OIL INSTALLATIONS ARE NATURAL ALLIES OF THE HOUTHIS FIGHTING SAUDI ARABIA. HOUTHI STRIKING CAPABILITY FROM DRONE SWARMS TO BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING STEADILY OVER THE PAST YEAR. EVEN BEFORE THE RECENT ATTACKS, THE HOUTHIS HAD ALREADY ENGINEERED SEVERAL ATTACKS AGAINST SAUDI OIL INSTALLITIONS AS WELL AS UNITED ARAB EMIRATE AIRPORTS. IN JULY, THE HOUTHI STAGED AN EXHIBIT IN SANAA, FEATURING THEIR RANGE OF BALLISTIC AND WINGED MISSILES AND DRONES.
AS A RESULT OF ATTACKS ON THEIR AIRPORTS, THE UNITED ARAB EMIRITES HAVE WITHDRAWN THEIR FORCES FROM THE SAUDI-LED COALITION, A STEP THE HOUTHIS HAVE REWARDED BY HALTING ITS ATTACKS.
THE HOPE IS THAT THIS COULD EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL PARTIES INCLUDING SAUDI ARABIA. WHILE SUCH A RESULT WOULD BE SEEN AS A WIN FOR THE HOUTHIS AND IRAN, IT WOULD ALSO FREE SAUDI ARABIA FROM A WAR COSTING IT TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
THE IRONY HERE IS THAT SAUDI ARABIA HAS SPENT BILLIONS ON AMERICAN MADE MILITARY HARDWARE WHICH FAILED TO PROTECT ITS OIL INSTALLATIONS FROM A RAGTAG HOUTHI REBEL GROUP. APPARENTLY, THE HOUTHIS NEW DRONES AND MISSILES ARE BASICALLY COPIES OF IRANIAN DESIGNS ASSEMBLED IN YEMEN WITH HELP FROM HEZBOLLAH ENGINEERS AT A COST OF $15,000 PER DRONE.
ANOTHER IRONY. SAUDI AIR DEFENSES WERE EQUIPPED TO DEFEND THE COUNTRY FROM IRAN, NOT YEMEN. TO PUT IT MIDLY, US INTELLIGENCE HAS PROVIDED SAUDI ARABIA WITH VERY POOR SERVICE. EXACTLY WHY THE US AND SAUDIS WERE SO BLIND-SIDED IS A CRITICAL QUESTION.
A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION CANNOT BE JUST A CEASE-FIRE OR A WITHDRAWAL OF FORCES. IT REQUIRES A POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ROAD MAP FOR THE POSTWAR PERIOD. THE DISTRIBUTION OF POWER AND AN EQUITABLE BUDGET ALLOCATION WOULD HAVE TO BE RESOLVED IN A MANNER THAT SATISFIED THE HOOTHIS.
ANOTHER ISSUE HERE IS THE INVOLVEMENT OF THE US AND ISRAEL, EACH OF WHOM HAVE ENCOURAGED THE EMIRITES AND SAUDI ARABIA TO LAUNCH A WAR AGAINST THE HOOTHIS AS PART OF THEIR STRUGGLE AGAINT IRAN. THE MOMENT ISREAL AND THE US STOP INTERVENING IN WHAT IS HAPPENING A SOLUTION WILL BE ATTANABLE.
IN THE VERY LATEST WRINKLE, THE HOUTHIS, OVER A THREE-DAY-PERIOD, RECENTLY CARRIED OUT A SPECTACULAR ATTACK INSIDE SAUDI ARABIA, CAPTURING A TOWN, MILITARY EQUIPMENT AND THREE SAUDI BATTALIANS. SAUDI ARABIA HAS YET TO CONFIRM THIS.
THE CLAIM, HEARD NOT JUST FROM SUNNIS BUT FROM THE HALLS OF CONGRESS THAT IRAN IS A MAIN SPONSOR OF TERRORISM NEEDS MENTION HERE, TOO. IT WAS SAUDI ARABIA THAT PRODUCED AL-QAEDA. OVER THE MANY DECADES, IT HAS BEEN THE SAUDIS WHO HAVVE CULTIVATED THE MOST DANGEROUS ELEMENTS IN ITS SOCIETY, PROVIDING THEM WITH MONEY, TRAINING AND THE MOST REACTIONARY VERSION OF ISLAM TO FORM THE BRIGADES THAT HAVE REINED TERROR NOT JUST ON THEIR OWN SOCIETY BUT ON THE WORLD. SAUDI ARABIA’S BATTALIONS OF TERRORISTS BECAME LEGENDARY AFTER 9/11, AND YET, ACCORDING TO CONGRESS AND THE .VAL OFFICE, IT IS NOT SAUDI ARABIA WHO ARE THE TERRORISTS BUT IRAN? HOW IS SUCH IGNORANCE POSSIBLE? IRAN HAS NOT ATTACKED ANOTHER COUNTRY IN OVER 400 YEARS. AL-QAEDA, ISIS AND ITS ILK ARE SUNNIS. IRANIANS ARE SHIITES AND THE ONES BEING ATTACKED AS INFIDELS BY SAUDI ARABIA’S MONSTROUS ARMY OF INSURGENTS.
AND IT IS IRAN, NOT SAUDI ARABIA, NOW WHICH SEEKS A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION AND AND END TO THE PROXY WAR LAUNCHED BY SAUDI ARABIA, ISRAEL AND THE US.
IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THE US RETURN TO THE 2015 IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL. MODIFICATIONS OF THAT DEAL CAN, THROUGH DIPLOMACY, BE WORKED OUT, NOT BY FULL-SCALE DEMANDS OR SEVERE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS IMPOSED BY WASHINGTON. AS TO THE HOUTH, THEY HAVE SAID THEY WOULD LIKE A CEASEFIRE WITH SAUDI ARABIA AND WOULD BE WILLING TO WORK TOGETHER TOWARD PEACE. THIS WOULD BE A FAR BETTER SCENARIO THAN FULL-FLEDGED WAR THAT WOULD NOT ONLY TEAR THE MIDDLE EAST APART BUT WOULD PLUNGE THE WORLD INTO ECONOMIC CHAOS.
RECENTLY, THE NEW YORK-BASED CREDIT RATINGS AGENCY FITCH DOWNGRADED THE SAUDI KINGDOM FROM A TO A-, CITING NOT ONLY THE LATEST ATTACK BUT ALSO THE CONTRY’S FINANCIAL SITUATION. IT SAID:
“THE DOWNGRADE REFLETS RISING GEOPOLITICAL AND MILITARY TENSIONS IN THE REGION, THE VULNERABILITY OF THE SAUDI ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE, AND CONTINUED DETERIORATION IN SAUDI ARABIA’S FISCAL AND EXTERNAL BALANCE SHEETS.”
IN A TACIT ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF THEIR VULNERABLE POSITION, AND THE APPARENT UNWILLINGNESS OF PRESIDENT TRUMP TO OFFER AID, THE SAUDIS ARE INCHING CLOSER TO TALKS WITH IRAN, A STEP UNTHINKABLE JUST A SHORT WHILE AGO.
FOR MORE ABOUT CATHY SULTAN AND HER WORK PLEASE VISIT WWW.CATHYSULTAN.COM OR GOOGLE HER. HER FIVE BOOKS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON AMAZON.
