Friday News : Candidate Follow Up
Welcome to Friday News. Every Friday I share news with you; primarily
about writing and sometimes about life in general. This week it is about:Candidate
Follow Up.
In my book 2020
Election Candidates & Issues I not only listed the candidates and their
stands on the issues, I made predictions on their candidacy.
Let’s take a
look: (an “X” means correct as of now; ! means wrong)
Candidate
Prediction
Result
OK
Michael Bennet
Drops out after Super Tuesday
Joe Biden
Drops out after Super Tuesday
Slipping;
X
Bill de Blasio
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Out Sep. 20, 2019
X
Cory Booker
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Steve Bullock
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Pete Buttigieg
Drops out after Super Tuesday
Emerging
Julian Castro
Drops out after Super Tuesday
Hillary Clinton
Maybe enters race*
Thinking about it
X
Hillary Clinton
Drops out after Super Tuesday
John Delaney
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Tulsi Gabbard
Drops out after Super Tuesday
Kirsten Gillibrand
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Out Aug. 28, 2019
X
Al Gore
Maybe enters race
X
Al Gore
Drops out after Super Tuesday
Mike Gravel
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Out Aug. 6, 2019
X
Kamala Harris
Winning nomination
Slipping
John Hickenlooper
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Out Aug. 19, 2019
X
Jay Inslee
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Out Aug. 21, 2019
X
Amy Klobuchar
Drops out after Super Tuesday
!
Wayne Messam
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Seth Moulton
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Out Aug. 2019
X
Beto O’Rourke
Drops out after Super Tuesday
Tim Ryan
Drops out before/after Super
Tuesday
Out Oct. 23, 2019 !
Bernie Sanders
Drops out after Super Tuesday
Slipping;
X
Tom
Stever
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Eric Swalwell
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Out July 8, 2019
X
Elizabeth Warren
Winning nomination
At top
X
Bill Weld
Drops out before Super Tuesday
Marianne Williamson
Drops out before/after Super
Tuesday
Andrew Yang
Might win nomination
Donald Trump
Wins nomination & election
Ahead
X
* My most interesting prediction
concerned Hillary Clinton entering the race. While she has not done so, she is
increasingly acting like a candidate. In my prediction I gave reasons for ‘not entering’
the race. My opinion hasn’t changed nor am I surprised by her interest (see
2020 Election Candidates & Issues, pg.46).
In the chart above you can see that every dropout was predicted by me. Further, I have consistently placed Warren as a possible winner. I predicted Harris to be a possible winner, but she’s been slipping lately. Too early to tell. Biden is at the top but his percentages keep slipping and I think my prediction about him dropping after Super Tuesday is still valid. Sanders has continued to slip and I still think he drops out after Super Tuesday.
Tim Ryan dropped out just this week. I had predicted him dropping out after Super Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Trump
remains solid. Head to head polls mean nothing, but overall job performance is
in low 40’s, which is fine this early in the race. It is hard to discern given
the overall bias of the media, but as we get closer to the conventions I expect
his numbers to rise.
I am pleased
that my predictions have been right on course. Time will tell just how accurate
I’ve been.
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