Running "The Nixon"
Like many people, I was surprised by the events of last week. Not surprised that Trump tried to force the Ukraine government into investigating Hunter Biden as a way of embarrassing his father, Joe Biden. Not surprised that Trump and his administration tried to cover it up. I was surprised, once the press got a whiff of the story, how quickly it all went public.
If the transcript was so damning (and it was damning!) why not fight a little more, a little longer, to keep it out of the public eye? Why not test those two new Supreme Court justices to see where they think the limits of presidential power really are?
I imagine this whole scandal was the sort of thing John Kelly, Rex Tillerson and company had kept from happening while they were in office. But, The Adults in the Room are all gone. Trump is left with sycophants and amateurs, and they really let him down this time.
Maybe Trump in his arrogance thought the Ukraine thing really wasn’t a big deal, and forced the release of the transcript to prove his point. Yet, I wonder. I hesitate to use the word “strategy” to refer to anything Trump does. He’s too impulsive and short-sighted. But, maybe this time, he really does have a plan.
I wonder if he isn’t getting a little tired of being President of the United States. It hasn’t been as fun as he thought it would be. It’s hard work, actually, and everyone is so critical of everything he does. I’m sure he finds his lack of popularity galling, baffling. Trump gets to play a lot of golf and visit all his properties around the world, but he could do that as a private citizen, too. I wonder if he doesn’t pine for the job he wanted all along, to be a pundit on Fox News, so he could get paid to criticize Washington from the sidelines.
The problem is, once you’re President, you have to run for a second term. It’s expected. He could win. Most incumbents win.
But, he could also lose. In his heart of hearts, he must know this. Manafort isn’t around to swing another clever deal with the Russians. The margin of error in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania was narrow to begin with, and has likely worsened with the trade war. The Democrats might even put Texas and Georgia in play. A narrow loss in Texas would be a disaster in terms of the Electoral College. He would lose Bigly if that happened.
We know he doesn’t like to lose. But, there may be other reasons he needs to stay President. He knows better than anyone if the cases in the Southern District of New York are snipe hunts, or if there really are crimes, like money laundering, to be had. Lose the presidency, and he loses the immunities and privileges that have protected him so far.
There’s only one play that can make all his problems go away. It’s complicated, but it’s worked before. And, from my seat, it looks like that play has already started. Trump is running “The Nixon.”
“The Nixon” is the set of steps that forced Richard Nixon from office back in the 70’s. It goes like this: Step 1) Commit a crime while digging up dirt on your political opponent. (Check!) Step 2) Cover it up, adding obstruction of justice to the charges. (Check!) Step 3) Provoke the House into impeaching you.
So far so good. Now, it’s up to the House to really put the heat on the President. But, this is exactly how “The Nixon” is designed to work. In football, the offense sometimes runs a play that tricks the defense into doing something that they really want to do. Like, tackling running back when this is really a pass play. The Democrats were eager to impeach Trump. Now they get their chance. But, it’s all part of the plan.
Trump now has options. If the House fails to turn the country against him, he can run “The Clinton,” get acquitted by the Senate and end up more popular than ever.
Or, if things are really going south, he can go to Step 4) and Resign. You can hear the speech, can’t you? “It’s for the good of the people, folks. The Democrats were being so mean, so unreasonable. I had to do what’s best for the country that I love.”
Step 5) This is the crucial part of the entire play, at least for Trump: Pence must pardon him, for everything. Obstruction, emoluments, security clearance shenanigans, money laundering. All of it.
Then, in November of 2020, he can sit back and watch as Pence gets trounced in a Reagan vs Mondale type landslide, all the while, making snide comments on Twitter, or better yet, as a paid contributor on Fox News. “Seriously, Mike? You lost to f--ing Pocahontas? And that f--ing f--t, Mayor Pete? Pathetic! I would’ve have creamed those two! But, I had to step aside, for the good of the country . . .
“Now, excuse me while I stash my money in overseas accounts, before those greedy Socialists get their hands on it.”
***
Thanks for reading! As I mentioned back on April 1, GoodReads took away my ability to see the read counts for this blog. I will have no way of knowing you are reading this unless you hit “like.” So, please, like and comment! And, if there was an earlier post that you enjoyed reading, please go back and like that one, too. I really appreciate it.
Fondly, KJ Cartmell
If the transcript was so damning (and it was damning!) why not fight a little more, a little longer, to keep it out of the public eye? Why not test those two new Supreme Court justices to see where they think the limits of presidential power really are?
I imagine this whole scandal was the sort of thing John Kelly, Rex Tillerson and company had kept from happening while they were in office. But, The Adults in the Room are all gone. Trump is left with sycophants and amateurs, and they really let him down this time.
Maybe Trump in his arrogance thought the Ukraine thing really wasn’t a big deal, and forced the release of the transcript to prove his point. Yet, I wonder. I hesitate to use the word “strategy” to refer to anything Trump does. He’s too impulsive and short-sighted. But, maybe this time, he really does have a plan.
I wonder if he isn’t getting a little tired of being President of the United States. It hasn’t been as fun as he thought it would be. It’s hard work, actually, and everyone is so critical of everything he does. I’m sure he finds his lack of popularity galling, baffling. Trump gets to play a lot of golf and visit all his properties around the world, but he could do that as a private citizen, too. I wonder if he doesn’t pine for the job he wanted all along, to be a pundit on Fox News, so he could get paid to criticize Washington from the sidelines.
The problem is, once you’re President, you have to run for a second term. It’s expected. He could win. Most incumbents win.
But, he could also lose. In his heart of hearts, he must know this. Manafort isn’t around to swing another clever deal with the Russians. The margin of error in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania was narrow to begin with, and has likely worsened with the trade war. The Democrats might even put Texas and Georgia in play. A narrow loss in Texas would be a disaster in terms of the Electoral College. He would lose Bigly if that happened.
We know he doesn’t like to lose. But, there may be other reasons he needs to stay President. He knows better than anyone if the cases in the Southern District of New York are snipe hunts, or if there really are crimes, like money laundering, to be had. Lose the presidency, and he loses the immunities and privileges that have protected him so far.
There’s only one play that can make all his problems go away. It’s complicated, but it’s worked before. And, from my seat, it looks like that play has already started. Trump is running “The Nixon.”
“The Nixon” is the set of steps that forced Richard Nixon from office back in the 70’s. It goes like this: Step 1) Commit a crime while digging up dirt on your political opponent. (Check!) Step 2) Cover it up, adding obstruction of justice to the charges. (Check!) Step 3) Provoke the House into impeaching you.
So far so good. Now, it’s up to the House to really put the heat on the President. But, this is exactly how “The Nixon” is designed to work. In football, the offense sometimes runs a play that tricks the defense into doing something that they really want to do. Like, tackling running back when this is really a pass play. The Democrats were eager to impeach Trump. Now they get their chance. But, it’s all part of the plan.
Trump now has options. If the House fails to turn the country against him, he can run “The Clinton,” get acquitted by the Senate and end up more popular than ever.
Or, if things are really going south, he can go to Step 4) and Resign. You can hear the speech, can’t you? “It’s for the good of the people, folks. The Democrats were being so mean, so unreasonable. I had to do what’s best for the country that I love.”
Step 5) This is the crucial part of the entire play, at least for Trump: Pence must pardon him, for everything. Obstruction, emoluments, security clearance shenanigans, money laundering. All of it.
Then, in November of 2020, he can sit back and watch as Pence gets trounced in a Reagan vs Mondale type landslide, all the while, making snide comments on Twitter, or better yet, as a paid contributor on Fox News. “Seriously, Mike? You lost to f--ing Pocahontas? And that f--ing f--t, Mayor Pete? Pathetic! I would’ve have creamed those two! But, I had to step aside, for the good of the country . . .
“Now, excuse me while I stash my money in overseas accounts, before those greedy Socialists get their hands on it.”
***
Thanks for reading! As I mentioned back on April 1, GoodReads took away my ability to see the read counts for this blog. I will have no way of knowing you are reading this unless you hit “like.” So, please, like and comment! And, if there was an earlier post that you enjoyed reading, please go back and like that one, too. I really appreciate it.
Fondly, KJ Cartmell
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