There are still no signs of any acceleration in measured ...

There are still no signs of any acceleration in measured productivity growth from the low "new normal" that emerged with the financial crisis of 2007-9. Least of all are there signs of an acceleration in investment and productivity growth produced by the late-2017 McConnell-Ryan-Trump tax cut. Moreover, the growth rate of the labor force now falls off of a demographic cliff. If there were a moment over the past two and a half centuries when we would like for the economy's sake for immigration to be higher than usual, it is now:



John Fernald and Huiyu Li: Is Slow Still the New Normal for GDP Growth?: "Estimates suggest the new normal pace for U.S. GDP growth remains between 1��% and 1��%, noticeably slower than the typical pace since World War II. The slowdown stems mainly from demographic trends that have slowed labor force growth, about which there is relatively little uncertainty. A larger challenge is productivity. Achieving GDP growth consistently above 1��% will require much faster productivity growth...




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Published on July 25, 2019 11:47
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