2045--The Point of No Return

2045. It's not just the date that Ray Kurzweil has pegged for the singularity; it is also the date by which we will know whether or not our species will survive past this century, becoming immortal and transcending our biology, or if we will be on the verge of extinction, having committed a planetary ecocide, on our way to killing off more than 99% of the planet's life by the end of the twenty-first century, including ourselves. 





Am I being an alarmist? It's okay if you say that I am. It's not like that isn't the same argument used against the entire National Academy of Science, or the thousands of articles published in the last decade in the two most prestigious science journals in existence: Science and Nature. 




Here are the facts: Just today, December 14th, Dr. Igo Semiletov of the Russian National Academy of Sciences, announced that "Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane -- a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide -- have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region." Although the amount of methane is far worse than the worst case scenario projections of the past, scientists have feared for years that the the massive amounts of methane trapped in the permafrosts of both Canada and Russia would escape once the ice under which they are trapped melts, kicking in the final and most destructive mechanism of runaway global warming -- and here it is. Dr. Semiletov describes plumes of methane that were "1 km or more wide and the emissions went directly into the atmosphere -- the concentration was 100 times higher than normal."




Why should this concern you? Can't you just move inland, away from coastal flooding, somewhere up north where the temperature might not be so bad, and spend your millions you made in the oil industry lounging on the new tropical beaches of Alaska? 

No. 

Why?

Because you'll suffocate first. 




That's right. It won't be the heat, or the flooding, or the storms that will get you -- you're going to run out of breathable air. 




Our oceans are dying and in a manner that is unprecedented in the history of human civilization, and nearly unprecedented in all of the biological history of the planet (save for five other major extinction events that occurred hundreds of millions of year apart.) In July of 2010, a study out of Dalhousie University published in Nature, revealed that, since 1950, 40% of the world's phytoplankton had vanished. Phytoplankton are at the bottom of the entire planet's food chain, and because they are a microscopic plant species, they photosynthesize and produce over 50% of the air you breathe. That's right. While you are reading this, every other breath you take is thanks to phytoplankton. That's nearly three times what the entire amazon rainforest produces.




The culprit? Scientists don't know for sure yet, but it's a good bet that it is the increasing acidity in the ocean, which is being caused by too much Co2 in the atmosphere. The oceans are the world's best carbon sink, but they are being overwhelmed by the amounts of Co2 humans are producing, and the phytoplankton, tiny and much more vulnerable to environmental factors than a healthy human is living in a smog-laden city, can't survive it. 




And if they don't survive, you don't survive. 




So it is very unlikely the planet's respiratory system will endure until 2045. While the UN climate conference in Durban was concerned with keeping overall warming below 2 degrees, they are unlikely to even meet this target, and it appears that the runaway freight train is already barreling out of the station. At some point, with methane now being spewed into the atmosphere at a far faster rate than previously, with Arctic sea ice at its lowest levels since the dawn of our species, and with Greenland's melt speeding up and unleashing fresh water into the oceans to interfere even further with phytoplankton's delicate and precarious ecosystem, it appears that the Law of Accelerating Detriments -- that is the exponential decline of the environment caused by 18th century fossil fuel technologies, is in for a photo finish with Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns.



You may be skeptical about Kurzweil, but the fact is, if he's wrong, we're all dead. It won't just be because we will die as individuals -- it will be because the entire species will require the fantastic technology that he predicts to be right around the corner to have any chance against the formidable foe that is stalking our existence. Without strong A.I., without nanotechnology capable of repairing our environment, and without the possibility of respirocytes (tiny robotic red blood cells that can dramatically reduce our need for oxygen), we will realize how vulnerable we really are, all alone in the vast blackness, on this tiny, pale blue dot.




Don't be afraid. This wasn't meant to scare you. It's not fear mongering. It's motivation. We're not finished yet. The greed of those in power, the people running six of the largest seven corporations in the world, all of which are fossil fuel companies, is endangering all of us. But the innovations of those working in science and technology, guided by the goodness that is in the vast majority of us, still has a chance. 




Transhumanism is not a selfish occupation. In fact, it is up to the transhumanists to save the world.