Annals of the defense budget implosion (Pt. X): When will the Marine Corps get real about how much it has to shrink?

I wrote my
first book about the Marine Corps, and I like the organization. But
sometimes even old friends need a push, and it feels to me like the Corps is
going off the tracks here. 

The Marines will shrink
from 202,000 to 186,000, but it would be risky to go below that level, Gen.
Joseph Dunford, the smart assistant commandant of the Marine Corps, said at a
CSIS session on Wednesday. That line
worries me. Here is a fuller explanation of General Dunford's views, taken from
his testimony before the House Armed Services Committee about six weeks ago:

--

… when we went through the force structure review effort, we came up with a
size Marine Corps of 186,800. That is a single major contingency operation
force. So that force can respond to only one major contingency. A hundred and
fifty thousand would put us below the level that's necessary to support a
single contingency.

The
other thing I would -- I would think about is what amphibious forces have done
over the past year: humanitarian assistance, disaster relief efforts in
Pakistan, supporting operations in Afghanistan with fixed-wing aviation,
responding to the crisis with pirates on the MV Magellan Star, supporting
operations in Libya, supporting our friends in the Philippines and Japan. And
quite frankly, at 150,000 Marines, we're going to have to make some decisions.
We will not be able to do those kinds of things on a day- to-day basis. We will
not be able to meet the combatant commanders' requirements for forward-delayed,
forward-engaged forces. We will not be there to deter our potential
adversaries. We won't be there to assure our potential friends or to assure our
allies. And we certainly won't be there to contain small crises before they
become major conflagrations.

So
I think at 150,000 Marines I would offer there would be some significant risks
both institutionally inside the Marine Corps because we will be spinning faster
and causing our Marines to do more with less -- but as importantly, perhaps
more importantly, the responsiveness that we'll have to combatant commanders'
contingencies and crisis response will be significantly degraded."

--

Tom again: This just doesn't strike me as realistic. The
Marine Corps almost certainly is going to get much smaller than 186,000, or
180,000. And so to plan around those larger numbers seems to me to be planning
for failure.

I also am bothered by the way the Corps has attacked this
issue. It does not feel to me like the institution I wrote about in Making the Corps some 15 years ago. Back
then, as least, the Marines had a strong tradition of arguing hammer-and-tongs --
considering all sorts of arguments -- until a decision was made. Once a decision
was reached, everyone in the Corps, no matter which side they had been on,
would support that decision to the utmost. So as the budget crisis approaches,
instead of drawing a line in the sand at 186K, it would be a sign of health if
the Marine Corps Gazette were
carrying articles these days that asked tough questions:

--Should we loosen the tie to the amphib Navy and supplement
it with whatever shipping is available to move Marines? If so, what would that
look like? How could we do the same things cheaper?

--Should the Corps move to a two-division structure? (And
yes, today's Congress would go along with that, if asked to.)

--Should the Corps indeed move immediately to 150,000 -- but
all the while making its line in the sand that it will always favor readiness
over end strength?

Instead, I see General Dunford's public remarks as the
Marine Corps leadership effectively shutting down discussion. Myself, I think
it would be smarter for the Marines to announce as soon as possible that they
are cutting to 150,000 -- and then go on to say, they aim to be the nation's
small-but-ready force, able to go into a conflict early and buy some time for
the country, not unlike Korea in the summer of 1950. This is the time to get
creative, not the time to go into a defensive crouch.

I was discussing my concerns yesterday with some Marine
types. One said, Don't worry, there's a Plan B. I think it would be more thoughtful
and, more importantly, more honest, to roll that out now.