Cheap Trips to China May Soon Become a Thing of the Past

It is becoming increasingly apparent that the cost of a trip to China will increase considerably once we reach the early spring of 2012. The Chinese currency -- the Yuan -- has risen in value by at least 6% in recent months. It is steadily increasing in value at a rate that will bring its rise to at least 7.% by spring, and probably to at least 10% by summer. More important, the rate of inflation in China has also increased and Chinese workers -- hotel staff among them -- are increasingly demanding higher pay for their labors.
 
All this has resulted in a certain skittishness among the key tour operators to China. For several days recently, the price leader in low-cost tours, China Focus ( www.chinafocustravel.com ), eliminated from its website its signature tour called "Historic China" which offered incredible value to the tourist in winter: round-trip air to China from San Francisco and nine nights in five Chinese cities including virtually all meals, taxes and fees, and daily escorted sightseeing, for the near-miracle price of $1,299. I phoned them about this mysterious elimination of their top-value program (the one on which they obviously earned only a tiny profit), got a vague and puzzling response, but was told the $1,299 tour would soon re-appear. It has reappeared, but only for 3 dates in February (none in January), and one date in March, after which the price ascends to $1,449 in March and the first two weeks in April. After that, I am betting it will soar to $1,799, $1,899, and even higher.
 
Meanwhile, the major competitor to China Focus, which is China Spree ( www.chinaspree.com ), is pricing its own multi-city nine-night tour (meant to compete with China Focus' similar Historic China) for a minimum of $1,399 plus $87 in tax in January, February and early March, which then jumps to $1,559 in late March. Again, I am willing to bet the same tour will rise to $1,899, $1,999, or more in April. When you consider that round-trip airfare between New York and most European capitals is itself more than $1,000 for a seven-hour flight, you immediately see how impossible it is to charge only slightly more than $1,000 for a tour that includes the much more lengthy flight from San Francisco to Beijing.
 
To sum up, I'm predicting hefty prices for travel to China in April and thereafter, and a cessation of the miracle pricing ($1,299 including airfare, accommodations, travel within China, all three meals daily, taxes and daily sightseeing!) that we've encountered thus far. Just as Chinese clothing and home furnishings are expected to rise in price at your local Wal-Mart, Chinese travel must necessarily soar in price as well. A steady rise in the value of the Chinese currency, and the demand of Chinese workers for higher wages, must inevitably bring about this result.
 
Conclusion: if you want to enjoy a cheap trip to China, go now -- meaning now in the middle of winter. Don't delay, or you'll pay a hefty penalty for doing so.