My Predictions for Who Will Die in Game of Thrones

I normally write about security, technology, and how they interact with humans, but I’m making an exception here for a prediction on Game of Thrones.

I read a book recently called Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, and it talked about professional predictors of complex events. They get rated on how accurate they are, how much confidence they put into their predictions, and how much they miss by.

This text will not be modified after April 19th, 2019 other than what’s indicated in the notes below.

So I simply want to know how much I’ll miss by for specific predictions on how the story will unfold.

Characters

Basically, imagine the most heroic ends possible—with most people dying and a few random and tragic deaths—and that’s what we’re going to get.

Arya will probably live because she becomes part of the mystery and danger of the world, and Tyrion probably lives because he becomes the tragic hero that carries forth wisdom and kindness going forward.

Notes


Hat tip to Andrew Ringlein, who I’ve talked to dozens of times about this exact topic over the last 8 years or so. He’s read many other books by George R.R. Martin and believes that he has a predictable pattern of heroic story arcs. So I’m sure he’s influenced my thinking on this, but I think we disagree on a number of these outcomes.

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