Actually, failure IS an option

If there is one
phrase I could expunge from the U.S. military vocabulary, it would be that
"Failure is not an option." Of course it is. And refusing to think
about it seriously actually makes a bad outcome more likely.

Yesterday morning one
of my smart CNAS colleagues, Shannon O' Reilly, was wondering aloud why the
Pentagon didn't plan more for the option of the United States being kicked out
of Iraq. The excuse being given, apparently, is that there was worry that such
planning would leak.

I think that is just
too damn convenient an alibi. I actually think that the bureaucracy dislikes
planning for anything less than victory. No one likes planning retreats. The
Army especially emphasizes optimism even when it isn't called for.

The problem with this
is that, as David Kilcullen has pointed out repeatedly over the years, the host
government you establish in places like Afghanistan and Iraq must at some point
stand on its own two feet and demonstrate its independence. Inevitably, it will
have to distance itself from the U.S. government. Basically, we should have expected to be kicked out at some point.
In fact, had we done so, it might have been spun as a sign of success. But that
would require some unconventional thinking, some serious consideration of the
American relationship with host nation governments --and some long-term
planning for that day of expulsion.