Making ebooks free (II)

A few posts down, I raised the question about whether making one ebook free would increase sales of your other books. That post is right here.

I'd made Glass House free, and it had finally reached Amazon the day I wrote that post. That was fairly late on October 18th, and over the two and a half days since, downloads of Glass House have gone up exponentially. No surprise - it's free, and people like free things.

But Omicron isn't free, it's 99 cents. Sure, that's not a lot, but it's still a buck, and it's a world where a buck counts even more every day.

Downloads of Omicron have gone up about 2,500%. That's obviously a big jump, but I need to be clear - it only looks big because Omicron was at a pace of perhaps 1 download every 5 days (.2 per day), and there have been 10 downloads in the past 2 days (5 per day).

That's a twenty-five-fold increase, on a daily basis.

That's probably due to the free book, bringing traffic to a site where people also can find Omicron. That partly answers the basic question, but it's only a possible indicator on the way to the bigger question.

If the question is really looking at selling ebooks to make money (and based on reading the boards, it is), the writer's interest is in finding ways to dramatically increase sales of paid ebooks. Can free ebooks have that meaningful an impact?

Twenty-five hundred percent up is a big measure, but it's more muted when you consider that it's .2 increased to 5 per day. At 99 cents, no one's printing money by increasing sales like that (at Amazon's 35% percent royalty rate for a 99-cent ebook, it's around $1.75 a day and $52 a month).

Which brings me back to the point that's implied in the earlier post - what sorts of things might happen in the longer run?

I hope those 10 buyers picked up Omicron because it's a good book (I think it is...). But they may have bought it just because it's inexpensive and was in proximity to something else they got. The measure of any real impact in "free leads to paid sales" still waits, though, because again, I think that impact depends almost completely on whether the free book/story is any good.

If it is ... if people read the free work and like it and look for more and turn to other available books ... what will the impact be then? Could it be 10,000%? 50,000%? 100,000%?

Numbers like that seem impossible, but they're not. Taking the .2 per day figure, an increase of 100,000% would be 200 downloads a day (at the same royalty rate, that's $70 a day and $2100 a month).

I think impacts like that and more could be found, but only if the writing is good. So to me, the answer to whether "free" on one book increases "paid" on another so far has to be yes at a fairly low level in the short term, and it depends on how people see worth in the longer term.
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Published on October 21, 2011 13:04 Tags: amazon, ebook, free, glass-house, kindle, omicron, patrick-reinken
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