Trade As a Percent of GDP: Deglobalization May Not Be All It Is Cracked Up to Be

Ruchir Shama had an NYT column warning about the risks of a trade war from the tariffs Trump is imposing on steel and aluminum imports. At one point the piece tells readers about rising protectionism across the world and says that as a result, "trade has yet to recover to its pre-crisis level."

The measure of trade the article gives is merchandise trade as a percent of world GDP. This measure is misleading since a major factor reducing this ratio is a fall in oil and other commodity prices. B...