Fun with Numbers and a Week in the Life of the Morrison County Police
On Saturday, February 3, Frank will be speaking on Murder Book at the Shoppes of Little Falls from 10:30 to 11:30 a.m. and will be signing books after.
On Monday, February 5, Frank will be speaking on Murder Book and forensic work over the lunch from 12:00 to 1:00 at the Brainerd Public Library, where people are invited to bring their lunch or a snack while he speaks and then signs books.
On Thursday evening, February 8, from 7:00 to 9:00 p.m., Frank will kick off his events at Winterfest in Ely, by speaking to a creative writing group at Vermillion College. The following day, Friday, February 9, Frank will speak to a Criminal Justice class at Vermillion on forensic work. That evening he will speak to the Ely Public Library on Murder Book from 5:00 to 6:30 and will sign books after. Frank and Brenda plan on seeing the snow sculptures, walking the art walk, and attending “the Great Nordic Beardfest” at the Boathouse Brew Pub.
Webers playing music 
Preston and Frank try a glass of Kilkenny at the Old Brickhouse in St. Cloud. If you’ve read Murder Book, you have an idea of how numbers play in my head. Here’s an example of a recent thought:
Of the approximately 450 NBA players, about 330 are African American—a fraction close to three in four. But among more than 20 million African-American men in the United States, only a very small portion play in the NBA—less than 0.01 percent. In other words, we can be about 75 percent confident that an NBA player is African American. But if we know only that a man is African American, it is pretty unlikely that he is an NBA player. (About 1 in 45,000).
A recent claim that “nearly 3 in 4 individuals convicted of terrorism-related charges are foreign born” follows the same logic. Not only does this figure not include domestic terrorism, but using it also exploits a slippery psychological trick. The odds of an individual convicted of terrorism-related charges in a US federal court being foreign-born is about 75 percent. But if an individual is foreign-born, the likelihood that the person has engaged in terrorism-related activities is nearly zero. There are approximately 41 million foreign-born people living in the United States; 402 out of 41 million is a minuscule proportion—less than 0.001 percent. The odds of a foreign-born person being a terrorist in the United States is 1 in every 102,000 foreign born Americans.
To put this in perspective, it is 3x more likely that your next door neighbor was an active player in the National Football League this past season than a foreign-born person is a terrorist in the United States. In other words, if you and everyone you know was living next to foreign born individuals, the odds are none of you would be living next to a terrorist. Seriously consider-- are you or is anybody you know living directly next to a 2017 NFL player (not a relative or family member, the actual player). Living next to an NFL player is 3x more likely than living next to a terrorist, if you and everyone you know lived next to foreign-born citizens.
My brother saved this police report and shared it with me. Here is an honest example of the weird weeks police in our area have. It’s significant to note that this isn’t an abbreviated report. This was every crime listed that week. Nothing was omitted. This is the police blotter for Morrison County for the week of 10/11/15, taken from the Morrison County Record.
Lawn mower calls police over breaking his own windows. At 1:16 p.m. Friday, Oct. 16, in Swanville, a complainant reported he parked his vehicle on the street to mow the lawn and noticed someone broke out his back window while it was parked there. Deputy arrived, looked at the scene and noticed the lawn was freshly mowed. Deputy also noticed it was mowed very short with loose rocks all over. Looking at the vehicle and the scene, it does appear that the mowing caused rocks to hit and break two windows in the vehicle. Deputy did find one rock that had marks on it from the mower hitting it and was laying by the parked vehicle. The two windows that were broken were the back and the side window, which were facing where he was mowing the yard.
“Somebody hit my mailbox with a pumpkin.” At 12:07 p.m. Monday in Bowlus, a woman reported her mailbox had been hit with a pumpkin. The deputy told the woman there was a string of similar incidents in the area. The deputy told her he would let her know if the office found out who did it.
Horse running at large. At 7:44 p.m. Wednesday in Hillman, a complainant reported a horse was running at large on the road. Upon the deputy's arrival, a man called and said it was his horse and he put it away.
Deer in truck, waiting for chores to get done. At 2:18 p.m. Wednesday in Royalton, a man reported he hit a deer very early in the morning while en route to milk cows. He put the deer in the back of the truck until he was done with the chores. He requested a permit for the deer. Deputy wrote a permit for him and the man stopped by the sheriff's office and picked the permit up.
Car door locked in a field. At 1:47 p.m. Wednesday in Little Falls, a woman called to ask if a deputy could come open her car door. She was in a field off of 160th Avenue in Little Falls Township. The deputy responded to the location and opened the car door.
Cat attacker sent to Hillbilly Haven. At 1:45 a.m. Tuesday in Pierz, Deputy spoke with a man, who said his daughter's cat got hurt and she blamed the father for doing it. The man said when his daughter accused him of hurting the cat, and he yelled at her. The man said his daughter pushed him and told him to leave. The daughter confirmed the story. The boyfriend said he would pay for a room for the father for the night at the Hillbilly Haven in Pierz. The father was transported there and no one was charged for assault.
Tailgate stolen off truck. At 9:34 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 17, on the 200 block of Main Street in Upsala, a complainant reported the tailgate had been stolen from their pickup truck.
People practice shooting at exploding target. At 6:44 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 17, in Pierz, a complainant reported there were people shooting guns in a field across from their residence all day and they just recently shot something that exploded. The deputy responded and met with the subjects in the field. Both subjects said they were shooting and just shot tannerite. Both subjects said they were done shooting for the day and about to go home. The deputy left the field and notified the complainant of the findings.
Woman asked to just go away. Report at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday of a verbal dispute on the 1000 block of Oak Street. The subject was gone on officer arrival. The caller asked officers to tell the woman not to come back.
Kids taught to act properly. Report at 6:55 p.m. Wednesday of kids being disruptive with their parents at an address on Quince Street. An officer advised the kids "how to act properly," according to the report.
Dog howling. At 10:42 a.m. Thursday on the 11000 block of River Vista Drive, a complainant reported their neighbor's dog has been howling for the past three days. Officer made contact with the dog's owners and advised them of the complaint.
Quote for the week:
My favorite quote for the week comes from a pre-school girl (related to one of our CORE staff) making her first dentist visit. The dentist asked, “If I open your mouth, am I going to find money?”
The girl’s response was, “No. But if you open my heart you will find Jesus, and if you open my pants you will find Barney the purple dinosaur underwear.” (Still working on discretion.)
Thanks for listening,
Frank
“Mary Don’t You Weep” is a spiritual song that had its origin before the civil war. It contains coded messages offering hope to slaves. It became popular again during the Civil Rights Movement. I’ve always like this song.
On Monday, February 5, Frank will be speaking on Murder Book and forensic work over the lunch from 12:00 to 1:00 at the Brainerd Public Library, where people are invited to bring their lunch or a snack while he speaks and then signs books.
On Thursday evening, February 8, from 7:00 to 9:00 p.m., Frank will kick off his events at Winterfest in Ely, by speaking to a creative writing group at Vermillion College. The following day, Friday, February 9, Frank will speak to a Criminal Justice class at Vermillion on forensic work. That evening he will speak to the Ely Public Library on Murder Book from 5:00 to 6:30 and will sign books after. Frank and Brenda plan on seeing the snow sculptures, walking the art walk, and attending “the Great Nordic Beardfest” at the Boathouse Brew Pub.
Webers playing music Preston and Frank try a glass of Kilkenny at the Old Brickhouse in St. Cloud. If you’ve read Murder Book, you have an idea of how numbers play in my head. Here’s an example of a recent thought:Of the approximately 450 NBA players, about 330 are African American—a fraction close to three in four. But among more than 20 million African-American men in the United States, only a very small portion play in the NBA—less than 0.01 percent. In other words, we can be about 75 percent confident that an NBA player is African American. But if we know only that a man is African American, it is pretty unlikely that he is an NBA player. (About 1 in 45,000).
A recent claim that “nearly 3 in 4 individuals convicted of terrorism-related charges are foreign born” follows the same logic. Not only does this figure not include domestic terrorism, but using it also exploits a slippery psychological trick. The odds of an individual convicted of terrorism-related charges in a US federal court being foreign-born is about 75 percent. But if an individual is foreign-born, the likelihood that the person has engaged in terrorism-related activities is nearly zero. There are approximately 41 million foreign-born people living in the United States; 402 out of 41 million is a minuscule proportion—less than 0.001 percent. The odds of a foreign-born person being a terrorist in the United States is 1 in every 102,000 foreign born Americans.
To put this in perspective, it is 3x more likely that your next door neighbor was an active player in the National Football League this past season than a foreign-born person is a terrorist in the United States. In other words, if you and everyone you know was living next to foreign born individuals, the odds are none of you would be living next to a terrorist. Seriously consider-- are you or is anybody you know living directly next to a 2017 NFL player (not a relative or family member, the actual player). Living next to an NFL player is 3x more likely than living next to a terrorist, if you and everyone you know lived next to foreign-born citizens.
My brother saved this police report and shared it with me. Here is an honest example of the weird weeks police in our area have. It’s significant to note that this isn’t an abbreviated report. This was every crime listed that week. Nothing was omitted. This is the police blotter for Morrison County for the week of 10/11/15, taken from the Morrison County Record.
Lawn mower calls police over breaking his own windows. At 1:16 p.m. Friday, Oct. 16, in Swanville, a complainant reported he parked his vehicle on the street to mow the lawn and noticed someone broke out his back window while it was parked there. Deputy arrived, looked at the scene and noticed the lawn was freshly mowed. Deputy also noticed it was mowed very short with loose rocks all over. Looking at the vehicle and the scene, it does appear that the mowing caused rocks to hit and break two windows in the vehicle. Deputy did find one rock that had marks on it from the mower hitting it and was laying by the parked vehicle. The two windows that were broken were the back and the side window, which were facing where he was mowing the yard.
“Somebody hit my mailbox with a pumpkin.” At 12:07 p.m. Monday in Bowlus, a woman reported her mailbox had been hit with a pumpkin. The deputy told the woman there was a string of similar incidents in the area. The deputy told her he would let her know if the office found out who did it.
Horse running at large. At 7:44 p.m. Wednesday in Hillman, a complainant reported a horse was running at large on the road. Upon the deputy's arrival, a man called and said it was his horse and he put it away.
Deer in truck, waiting for chores to get done. At 2:18 p.m. Wednesday in Royalton, a man reported he hit a deer very early in the morning while en route to milk cows. He put the deer in the back of the truck until he was done with the chores. He requested a permit for the deer. Deputy wrote a permit for him and the man stopped by the sheriff's office and picked the permit up.
Car door locked in a field. At 1:47 p.m. Wednesday in Little Falls, a woman called to ask if a deputy could come open her car door. She was in a field off of 160th Avenue in Little Falls Township. The deputy responded to the location and opened the car door.
Cat attacker sent to Hillbilly Haven. At 1:45 a.m. Tuesday in Pierz, Deputy spoke with a man, who said his daughter's cat got hurt and she blamed the father for doing it. The man said when his daughter accused him of hurting the cat, and he yelled at her. The man said his daughter pushed him and told him to leave. The daughter confirmed the story. The boyfriend said he would pay for a room for the father for the night at the Hillbilly Haven in Pierz. The father was transported there and no one was charged for assault.
Tailgate stolen off truck. At 9:34 a.m. Saturday, Oct. 17, on the 200 block of Main Street in Upsala, a complainant reported the tailgate had been stolen from their pickup truck.
People practice shooting at exploding target. At 6:44 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 17, in Pierz, a complainant reported there were people shooting guns in a field across from their residence all day and they just recently shot something that exploded. The deputy responded and met with the subjects in the field. Both subjects said they were shooting and just shot tannerite. Both subjects said they were done shooting for the day and about to go home. The deputy left the field and notified the complainant of the findings.
Woman asked to just go away. Report at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday of a verbal dispute on the 1000 block of Oak Street. The subject was gone on officer arrival. The caller asked officers to tell the woman not to come back.
Kids taught to act properly. Report at 6:55 p.m. Wednesday of kids being disruptive with their parents at an address on Quince Street. An officer advised the kids "how to act properly," according to the report.
Dog howling. At 10:42 a.m. Thursday on the 11000 block of River Vista Drive, a complainant reported their neighbor's dog has been howling for the past three days. Officer made contact with the dog's owners and advised them of the complaint.
Quote for the week:
My favorite quote for the week comes from a pre-school girl (related to one of our CORE staff) making her first dentist visit. The dentist asked, “If I open your mouth, am I going to find money?”
The girl’s response was, “No. But if you open my heart you will find Jesus, and if you open my pants you will find Barney the purple dinosaur underwear.” (Still working on discretion.)
Thanks for listening,
Frank
“Mary Don’t You Weep” is a spiritual song that had its origin before the civil war. It contains coded messages offering hope to slaves. It became popular again during the Civil Rights Movement. I’ve always like this song.
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